Kamala Harris poll numbers up after first speech...but can she beat Trump ? 👀
I watched her first official campaign speech I'm not sold. But she definitely convinced quite a few people in the comments section on most YouTube videos that she can beat the infamous Donald Trump. What do you think. Did she surprise you with her powerful words. Did she woo you with her charm and intellect. Shes at 44%...Trump is at 42%. Do you believe that Kamala Harris can really beat Donald Trump. Comments please. Best answer wins. ☺️🇺🇲
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@beckyromero Electoral-vote.com just said today that they're suspending their aggregations because averaging polls taken when Biden was a candidate until four days ago has no bearing on Harris' popularity. We'll know more after the Democratic convention.
I'm also convinced that many polls are overcorrecting for "shy Trump voters," and were underweighting for "shy Biden voters." I can imagine a churchgoing, suburban soccer mom being reluctant to tell a pollster that she plans to vote for Biden because she's worried her daughter might be raped and not be able to have an abortion. Whatever doubts people have about elections, nearly everyone believes that their vote is at least secret. But not everyone trusts what they tell a pollster is secret. So I think support for generic Democrats and abortion rights is higher than it looks.
However, even the most inaccurate poll is still useful for tracking changes over time, because the error is the same each time.
@beckyromero Even with "shy Biden voters," Biden was still in trouble as he was underperforming compared to Democratic Senate and House candidates in the same states. If a pollster's algorithm is incorrect, the same error will be applied to everyone, so a poll that's inaccurate in an absolute sense will be accurate in a relative one.
