Kamala Harris poll numbers up after first speech...but can she beat Trump ? 👀
I watched her first official campaign speech I'm not sold. But she definitely convinced quite a few people in the comments section on most YouTube videos that she can beat the infamous Donald Trump. What do you think. Did she surprise you with her powerful words. Did she woo you with her charm and intellect. Shes at 44%...Trump is at 42%. Do you believe that Kamala Harris can really beat Donald Trump. Comments please. Best answer wins. ☺️🇺🇲
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Trump has pretty much been locked in below 50% for the past 8 yrs.
He only got 46.1% of the popular vote when he won the electoral vote in 2016 against Hillary Clinton (48.2%)
He got 46.8% when losing to Joe Biden. (51.3%)
Trump hasn't topped 48% in the RealClearPolitics Poll Average in tracking since November 2022 and was as low as 45.1% just before the debate with President Biden.
Of course it's the Electoral College that decides who wins. But if Harris holds the "Blue Wall" (Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania) she will almost certainly win.
That said, she must hold Minnesota, New Hamsphire and Virginia as well. There are a couple tie scenarios because of the way Maine and Nebraska allocate their electoral votes.
But if she holds the "Blue Wall" and Minnesota, New Hamsphire and Virginia, any one of the following states would clinch a victory: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada (all states that Biden won) or North Carolina.
Holding the "Blue Wall" and winning either Georgia or North Carolina would about do it. Winning either Georgia or North Carolina almost certainly Virginia stays blue.
Winning Arizona almost certainly means Nevada stays blue.
And if Florida emerges as a battleground, she'll be on a road to a landslide.
