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MartinII · 70-79, M
In my view the main benefit of war with Iran would be, afterwards, peace for a considerable time. Biden, Cameron et al pretend that restraint now would be conducive to peace, but surely the opposite is the case. Obviously one shouldn't advocate war because of its immediate consequences, especially for civilians. But in my view the only chance of relatively long-term peace in the Middle East is for one side to win.
And I will continue to point out, for as long as necessary, that the Israeli action in Gaza is not genocide.
And I will continue to point out, for as long as necessary, that the Israeli action in Gaza is not genocide.
Aidankenny23 · M
@MartinII as long as none of your particular loved ones are among the thousands of innocents who will be blown apart, right? Perfect plan 🙄
Northwest · M
The Mullahs never really wanted it as a "show", and they did not inform the West to make sure the West was prepared.
Iran informed its neighbors, and the countries in the flight path, to make sure civilian aviation is protected.
However, it is what it is.
The Netanyahu government is now incapable of making decisions, but they will, and they will retaliate with a strike inside Iran.
I agree that the US, as much as it does not want this to happen, will be forced to participate in Israel's defense.
Why? Because post-strike analysis, show that somewhere between 25%-35% of the incoming attack, struck its targets. This includes 9 ballistic missiles, that scored direct hits on two Israeli air force bases.
This is despite an international coalition that included active participation from the US, France, the UK, and Jordan, as well as intelligence from Saudi and UAE.
And the Iranian attack was minor.
So, the US and the rest of the West will step in and it's not going to be pretty.
The only reasonable thing to do, is to not give Netanyahu a choice and tell him to go fuck himself.
The Iranian attack, was a response to the targeting of the Iranian Embassy annex, and killing 7 Iranians.
And as it turns out, that operation, planned 2 months prior, assumed that this was not a big deal, and Iran will not see it as a big deal. The planners, and Netanyahu, were dead wrong.
So, Israel should consider it over, and be happy this did not escalate, and cut the shit out, and stop the blatant arrogance. The Israeli leftist press realizes that, and is calling the right's arrogance, idiot overconfidence, and a lying to the Israeli public.
And we haven't even began to factor in Hezballah's 150K plus advanced missiles (one of them destroyed an Iron Dome battery 2 days ago), that only need 5 minutes to reach their targets.
I would like to spend part of June in Northern Israel, but... And it's not just ny vacation that I'm worried about.
Iran informed its neighbors, and the countries in the flight path, to make sure civilian aviation is protected.
However, it is what it is.
The Netanyahu government is now incapable of making decisions, but they will, and they will retaliate with a strike inside Iran.
I agree that the US, as much as it does not want this to happen, will be forced to participate in Israel's defense.
Why? Because post-strike analysis, show that somewhere between 25%-35% of the incoming attack, struck its targets. This includes 9 ballistic missiles, that scored direct hits on two Israeli air force bases.
This is despite an international coalition that included active participation from the US, France, the UK, and Jordan, as well as intelligence from Saudi and UAE.
And the Iranian attack was minor.
So, the US and the rest of the West will step in and it's not going to be pretty.
The only reasonable thing to do, is to not give Netanyahu a choice and tell him to go fuck himself.
The Iranian attack, was a response to the targeting of the Iranian Embassy annex, and killing 7 Iranians.
And as it turns out, that operation, planned 2 months prior, assumed that this was not a big deal, and Iran will not see it as a big deal. The planners, and Netanyahu, were dead wrong.
So, Israel should consider it over, and be happy this did not escalate, and cut the shit out, and stop the blatant arrogance. The Israeli leftist press realizes that, and is calling the right's arrogance, idiot overconfidence, and a lying to the Israeli public.
And we haven't even began to factor in Hezballah's 150K plus advanced missiles (one of them destroyed an Iron Dome battery 2 days ago), that only need 5 minutes to reach their targets.
I would like to spend part of June in Northern Israel, but... And it's not just ny vacation that I'm worried about.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@Northwest [quote]The Mullahs never really wanted it as a "show", and they did not inform the West to make sure the West was prepared.
Iran informed its neighbors, and the countries in the flight path, to make sure civilian aviation is protected.[/quote]
Sure this is the official story but I don't agree. The Iraqi government was told with 72 hours notice. It doesn't take three days to cancel a flight. They were always going to pass the information on and Iran would have known that.
[quote]And as it turns out, that operation, planned 2 months prior, assumed that this was not a big deal, and Iran will not see it as a big deal. The planners, and Netanyahu, were dead wrong.[/quote]
They would have known that it was a big deal and that is why they didn't tell America. They calculate that the Biden administration will complain about them going off script (again) but won't meaningfully sanction them again. Though it will ultimately be forced to protect them from any retaliation. The Netanyahu government wants to escalate.
[quote]The only reasonable thing to do, is to not give Netanyahu a choice and tell him to go fuck himself.[/quote]
On this, I completely agree.
Iran informed its neighbors, and the countries in the flight path, to make sure civilian aviation is protected.[/quote]
Sure this is the official story but I don't agree. The Iraqi government was told with 72 hours notice. It doesn't take three days to cancel a flight. They were always going to pass the information on and Iran would have known that.
[quote]And as it turns out, that operation, planned 2 months prior, assumed that this was not a big deal, and Iran will not see it as a big deal. The planners, and Netanyahu, were dead wrong.[/quote]
They would have known that it was a big deal and that is why they didn't tell America. They calculate that the Biden administration will complain about them going off script (again) but won't meaningfully sanction them again. Though it will ultimately be forced to protect them from any retaliation. The Netanyahu government wants to escalate.
[quote]The only reasonable thing to do, is to not give Netanyahu a choice and tell him to go fuck himself.[/quote]
On this, I completely agree.
BlueVeins · 22-25
The US has been signaling that it won't help Israel wage war against Iran. Since the US tends to take the lead on these things, I somewhat doubt European governments would get involved either. Germany is calling on Israel to show restraint. Very real risk of the US warring with Iran in the future over nukes, but I don't think it'll be dragged in by this current spat. Hard to gauge, of course, and I haven't seen what other NATO countries are saying.
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Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@BlueVeins Does America want that kind of war?
No
Does Israel?
[i]Hmm[/i]
Would America back up Israel if it was under immediate threat?
Yes
No
Does Israel?
[i]Hmm[/i]
Would America back up Israel if it was under immediate threat?
Yes
BlueVeins · 22-25
@Burnley123 I don't know why you think that. The US is too distant from Israel for its own well-being to be meaningfully at risk. The alliance between the US and Israel is ultimately one of convenience; Israel kills terrorists, counters Iran and Russia, (presumably) helps keep trade routes open, and it's easier for us to give them bombs and block the consequences of their war crimes than for us to do it ourselves.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@BlueVeins it[quote]'s easier for us to give them bombs and block the consequences of their war crimes than for us to do it ourselves.[/quote]
Yes but its not just that.
The Israeli lobby has tremendous sway in Western politics, especially in America. To the point where you can't protest against Israel without being accused of antisemitism.
It's not just the logic of neoliberalism and neoimperialism at play (though those matter) but its overdetermined within that. It's the logic of Zionism: the religious belief in creating a Jewish-only state in the holy land. The American evangelicals fantastically support this for religious reasons and also establishment liberals are tied to an old orthodoxy of foreign policy from the days when the ('moderate' zionist) Jewish Labour Party was calling the shots. Nobody is used to saying no to Israel. A few progressive democrats don't back a bill and get called anti-semites.
A religious zealot settler colony which is backed unconditionally by the world's biggest power is used to acting with impunity and they will push that.
Yes but its not just that.
The Israeli lobby has tremendous sway in Western politics, especially in America. To the point where you can't protest against Israel without being accused of antisemitism.
It's not just the logic of neoliberalism and neoimperialism at play (though those matter) but its overdetermined within that. It's the logic of Zionism: the religious belief in creating a Jewish-only state in the holy land. The American evangelicals fantastically support this for religious reasons and also establishment liberals are tied to an old orthodoxy of foreign policy from the days when the ('moderate' zionist) Jewish Labour Party was calling the shots. Nobody is used to saying no to Israel. A few progressive democrats don't back a bill and get called anti-semites.
A religious zealot settler colony which is backed unconditionally by the world's biggest power is used to acting with impunity and they will push that.
Aidankenny23 · M
And in particular, it’s Netanyahu who wants the war. The longer he can deflect from the Gaza situation by provoking a conflict with Iran, and the longer he can ensure the Israeli hostages remain in Gaza, the longer he can claim that now is not the time to call elections. He will surely lose, and he, personally, will have some serious criminal charges to face, going way back.
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whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
No..
Without supporting one side or the other (both sides are so wrong here) Israel has a firm plan with the tacit support of America that involves "containing" Iran...And Israel have the weapons fo send Iran back into the stone age in minutes and the will to do it..they dont need the help of anyone if Iran push them far enough..😷
Without supporting one side or the other (both sides are so wrong here) Israel has a firm plan with the tacit support of America that involves "containing" Iran...And Israel have the weapons fo send Iran back into the stone age in minutes and the will to do it..they dont need the help of anyone if Iran push them far enough..😷
sarabee1995 · 26-30, F
What you fear has already begun. Who do you think is knocking down most of the missiles launched by Iranian proxies in Yeman?
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@sarabee1995 Yeah but there are degrees of war. There is still a chance to de-escalate. I don't think Iseal wants that but if anyone else does, the time for a policy change is now.
sarabee1995 · 26-30, F
@Burnley123 [quote][i][b]Yeah but there are degrees of war.[/b][/i][/quote] Indeed.
[quote][i][b]There is still a chance to de-escalate.[/b][/i][/quote] Why Burnley, old chap, I never took you for the optimist!
[quote][i][b]There is still a chance to de-escalate.[/b][/i][/quote] Why Burnley, old chap, I never took you for the optimist!
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@sarabee1995 You Americans are so funny when you do British accents. Even in print!
Julien · 36-40, M
There is a lot of « proxy « conflict happening atm , resources are getting scares , climate is acting up . I do think a big conflict is upon us
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
@badminton Yeah, I know. So do they, which is why they feel safe to escalate.
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