Will allies get dragged into Israeli war with Iran?
I think that this is highly possible.
The Iranian air strike was designed for show for their domestic audience. How do we know? They tipped off the Iraqi government (a NATO ally/ vassell) at 72 hours notice and they were always going to pass the information on. Iran didn't use it's best hardware and almost no damage was done. Nonetheless, the Iranian government have said that they consider the matter closed, in spite of doing almost no damage.
Israel's allies have urged them not yo respond but when does 'urging' them not to do anything have an impact. Israel did not even let the Americans know that they were attacking the Iranian embassy. They don't need to though, just as long as they can count on unconditional western support if Iran attacks them. And they surely can.
In geopolitics, you should judge a government by it's actions and not it's words. The pattern of behaviour indicates that Israel wants a war with Iran. What would the benefits be? That would be two fold: They would benefit from direct Euro-American military support against Iran's proxies and it would put to bed any notion of the west stopping aid or arms sales to Israel. The Gaza genocide would get further diplomatic immunity. How can we stop sending weapons when 'our ally' is under attack.
I don't think the Biden administration wants this escalation but I think it will get dragged out nto one unless it seriously changes it's policy on Israel and does so soon. Unconditional support means just that. The tail wags the dog.
The Iranian air strike was designed for show for their domestic audience. How do we know? They tipped off the Iraqi government (a NATO ally/ vassell) at 72 hours notice and they were always going to pass the information on. Iran didn't use it's best hardware and almost no damage was done. Nonetheless, the Iranian government have said that they consider the matter closed, in spite of doing almost no damage.
Israel's allies have urged them not yo respond but when does 'urging' them not to do anything have an impact. Israel did not even let the Americans know that they were attacking the Iranian embassy. They don't need to though, just as long as they can count on unconditional western support if Iran attacks them. And they surely can.
In geopolitics, you should judge a government by it's actions and not it's words. The pattern of behaviour indicates that Israel wants a war with Iran. What would the benefits be? That would be two fold: They would benefit from direct Euro-American military support against Iran's proxies and it would put to bed any notion of the west stopping aid or arms sales to Israel. The Gaza genocide would get further diplomatic immunity. How can we stop sending weapons when 'our ally' is under attack.
I don't think the Biden administration wants this escalation but I think it will get dragged out nto one unless it seriously changes it's policy on Israel and does so soon. Unconditional support means just that. The tail wags the dog.
41-45, M
