Will allies get dragged into Israeli war with Iran?

I think that this is highly possible.

The Iranian air strike was designed for show for their domestic audience. How do we know? They tipped off the Iraqi government (a NATO ally/ vassell) at 72 hours notice and they were always going to pass the information on. Iran didn't use it's best hardware and almost no damage was done. Nonetheless, the Iranian government have said that they consider the matter closed, in spite of doing almost no damage.

Israel's allies have urged them not yo respond but when does 'urging' them not to do anything have an impact. Israel did not even let the Americans know that they were attacking the Iranian embassy. They don't need to though, just as long as they can count on unconditional western support if Iran attacks them. And they surely can.

In geopolitics, you should judge a government by it's actions and not it's words. The pattern of behaviour indicates that Israel wants a war with Iran. What would the benefits be? That would be two fold: They would benefit from direct Euro-American military support against Iran's proxies and it would put to bed any notion of the west stopping aid or arms sales to Israel. The Gaza genocide would get further diplomatic immunity. How can we stop sending weapons when 'our ally' is under attack.

I don't think the Biden administration wants this escalation but I think it will get dragged out nto one unless it seriously changes it's policy on Israel and does so soon. Unconditional support means just that. The tail wags the dog.

Northwest · M

The Mullahs never really wanted it as a "show", and they did not inform the West to make sure the West was prepared.

Iran informed its neighbors, and the countries in the flight path, to make sure civilian aviation is protected.

However, it is what it is.

The Netanyahu government is now incapable of making decisions, but they will, and they will retaliate with a strike inside Iran.

I agree that the US, as much as it does not want this to happen, will be forced to participate in Israel's defense.

Why? Because post-strike analysis, show that somewhere between 25%-35% of the incoming attack, struck its targets. This includes 9 ballistic missiles, that scored direct hits on two Israeli air force bases.

This is despite an international coalition that included active participation from the US, France, the UK, and Jordan, as well as intelligence from Saudi and UAE.

And the Iranian attack was minor.

So, the US and the rest of the West will step in and it's not going to be pretty.

The only reasonable thing to do, is to not give Netanyahu a choice and tell him to go fuck himself.

The Iranian attack, was a response to the targeting of the Iranian Embassy annex, and killing 7 Iranians.

And as it turns out, that operation, planned 2 months prior, assumed that this was not a big deal, and Iran will not see it as a big deal. The planners, and Netanyahu, were dead wrong.

So, Israel should consider it over, and be happy this did not escalate, and cut the shit out, and stop the blatant arrogance. The Israeli leftist press realizes that, and is calling the right's arrogance, idiot overconfidence, and a lying to the Israeli public.

And we haven't even began to factor in Hezballah's 150K plus advanced missiles (one of them destroyed an Iron Dome battery 2 days ago), that only need 5 minutes to reach their targets.

I would like to spend part of June in Northern Israel, but... And it's not just ny vacation that I'm worried about.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Northwest [quote]The Mullahs never really wanted it as a "show", and they did not inform the West to make sure the West was prepared.

Iran informed its neighbors, and the countries in the flight path, to make sure civilian aviation is protected.[/quote]

Sure this is the official story but I don't agree. The Iraqi government was told with 72 hours notice. It doesn't take three days to cancel a flight. They were always going to pass the information on and Iran would have known that.

[quote]And as it turns out, that operation, planned 2 months prior, assumed that this was not a big deal, and Iran will not see it as a big deal. The planners, and Netanyahu, were dead wrong.[/quote]

They would have known that it was a big deal and that is why they didn't tell America. They calculate that the Biden administration will complain about them going off script (again) but won't meaningfully sanction them again. Though it will ultimately be forced to protect them from any retaliation. The Netanyahu government wants to escalate.

[quote]The only reasonable thing to do, is to not give Netanyahu a choice and tell him to go fuck himself.[/quote]

On this, I completely agree.

BlueVeins · 22-25

The US has been signaling that it won't help Israel wage war against Iran. Since the US tends to take the lead on these things, I somewhat doubt European governments would get involved either. Germany is calling on Israel to show restraint. Very real risk of the US warring with Iran in the future over nukes, but I don't think it'll be dragged in by this current spat. Hard to gauge, of course, and I haven't seen what other NATO countries are saying.