Will allies get dragged into Israeli war with Iran?

I think that this is highly possible.

The Iranian air strike was designed for show for their domestic audience. How do we know? They tipped off the Iraqi government (a NATO ally/ vassell) at 72 hours notice and they were always going to pass the information on. Iran didn't use it's best hardware and almost no damage was done. Nonetheless, the Iranian government have said that they consider the matter closed, in spite of doing almost no damage.

Israel's allies have urged them not yo respond but when does 'urging' them not to do anything have an impact. Israel did not even let the Americans know that they were attacking the Iranian embassy. They don't need to though, just as long as they can count on unconditional western support if Iran attacks them. And they surely can.

In geopolitics, you should judge a government by it's actions and not it's words. The pattern of behaviour indicates that Israel wants a war with Iran. What would the benefits be? That would be two fold: They would benefit from direct Euro-American military support against Iran's proxies and it would put to bed any notion of the west stopping aid or arms sales to Israel. The Gaza genocide would get further diplomatic immunity. How can we stop sending weapons when 'our ally' is under attack.

I don't think the Biden administration wants this escalation but I think it will get dragged out nto one unless it seriously changes it's policy on Israel and does so soon. Unconditional support means just that. The tail wags the dog.

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BlueVeins · 22-25

The US has been signaling that it won't help Israel wage war against Iran. Since the US tends to take the lead on these things, I somewhat doubt European governments would get involved either. Germany is calling on Israel to show restraint. Very real risk of the US warring with Iran in the future over nukes, but I don't think it'll be dragged in by this current spat. Hard to gauge, of course, and I haven't seen what other NATO countries are saying.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@BlueVeins [quote]The US has been signaling that it won't help Israel wage war against Iran. [/quote]

Of course, but these are words, not actions.

I believe that America does not want a war with Iran but it will be 'forced' to join in if Israel faces a major attack. This is why I think Netanyahu feels safe to escalate. The tail wags the dog.

BlueVeins · 22-25

@Burnley123 There are situations where it could happen, like if Iran is about to develop a nuke mid-war, but the war dragging out long enough for that to occur seems unlikely. The costs of such a conflict to the US would be unbelievably high and the public is in sort of an isolationist mood right now.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@BlueVeins Does America want that kind of war?

No

Does Israel?

[i]Hmm[/i]

Would America back up Israel if it was under immediate threat?

Yes

BlueVeins · 22-25

@Burnley123 I don't know why you think that. The US is too distant from Israel for its own well-being to be meaningfully at risk. The alliance between the US and Israel is ultimately one of convenience; Israel kills terrorists, counters Iran and Russia, (presumably) helps keep trade routes open, and it's easier for us to give them bombs and block the consequences of their war crimes than for us to do it ourselves.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@BlueVeins it[quote]'s easier for us to give them bombs and block the consequences of their war crimes than for us to do it ourselves.[/quote]

Yes but its not just that.

The Israeli lobby has tremendous sway in Western politics, especially in America. To the point where you can't protest against Israel without being accused of antisemitism.

It's not just the logic of neoliberalism and neoimperialism at play (though those matter) but its overdetermined within that. It's the logic of Zionism: the religious belief in creating a Jewish-only state in the holy land. The American evangelicals fantastically support this for religious reasons and also establishment liberals are tied to an old orthodoxy of foreign policy from the days when the ('moderate' zionist) Jewish Labour Party was calling the shots. Nobody is used to saying no to Israel. A few progressive democrats don't back a bill and get called anti-semites.

A religious zealot settler colony which is backed unconditionally by the world's biggest power is used to acting with impunity and they will push that.