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Trump in 2024

One reason Trump won in 2016 (despite having fewer people as a whole vote for him) is because many people had a strong negative opinion of Hilary Clinton going in. So, Trump won the "lesser of two evils" vote, and the "No more Bushes or Clintons" vote. He also won over moderate republicans willing to "give him a chance".

In 2020, Trump clearly lost the "lesser of two evils" vote because his own reputation as president was extremely negative outside of his base. Many of those moderate republicans were unwilling to give him another chance, and actually campaigned for Biden.

So what happens in 2024 if Trump is the GOP nominee? I doubt those "moderate republicans" will jump back on board. In fact, he probably lost more because he is a sore loser. I doubt his reputation will improve enough to win the "lesser of two evils" vote. Those that dislike him really dislike him, and they already voted against him in 2020, and they will do so again.

My feeling is the only way Trump wins again is if the country is truly hurting, the Dems stick with Biden or someone extremely uninspiring, and those in the middle either don't vote or vote 3rd party protest votes (a Ralph Nader vote), Trump wins here because even if his base is only 40-45%, they are much more energized than the base for the Democrats.

Thoughts?
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scrood · 31-35
TRUMP DIDN'T LOSE

MAGA 2024
BohoBabe · M
@scrood What exactly was Obama's mess?
Obama and Biden didn't defend Putin's actions like Trump did. Trump just gave Putin everything he wanted.
scrood · 31-35
@BohoBabe So Putin had to wait four years for Trump to leave office because he didn't get all the Ukrainian territory he wanted - he had to invade immediately after Biden demonstrates deadly weakness with horrific Afghanistan withdrawal something out of a bad disaster movie running alongside cargo plane launch FAR WORSE than Saigon helicopters?
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First thoughts here:

I've gone with the "lesser of two evils" thing before, but it only goes so far and seems like a much more useful metaphor with two candidates who've never done the job as opposed to two former Presidents, neither of whom (and I hate to admit this) truly governed evilly.

I agree with you that the the third party split thing could be fatal to either candidate, but I don't think, after 2016, anyone would do it on the left, absent Biden really losing it, which I don't see happening (health excepted anyway).

I wish I could be as optimistic about moderate Republicans jumping on the Trump train as you seem to be, but I'm not. They did it in 2016, and again in 2020, and after 8 years of kissing Trump's behinds, I don't think they'll keep him from the GOP nomination, or that enough of them be willing to sacrifice themselves, a la, Kinzinger or Cheney.

My guess is, absent big stuff happening internationally or economically, that we'll see a general election more or less like we saw in 2020, only magnified by Trump investigations, Biden's fighting through House investigations and lack of 3rd and fourth year accomplishments, and ultimately a pretty close electoral count, whatever the popular vote may be.

Having said all that, assuming that Biden and Trump are still running, how much hurt the country is felling is still probably critical, and I doubt it matters whose "fault it is."
If Trump is the nominee, Biden will win again because people will be voting for “anyone but Trump.” The Republicans are desperate for someone else to be the nominee. The real fight will be within the GOP between the MAGAGA cult and everyone else.
trollslayer · 46-50, M
@LeopoldBloom GOP would be fools to not put someone else in. There are MANY people they could nominate that would beat Biden. Remember, the 40% who are Rs will vote R no matter who is on the ticket. The trick is to convince another 10% that their guy is better than Biden. They won't do that with Trump. DeSantis probably would - easily.
@trollslayer I'm not so sure. DeSantis is trying to imitate Trump's playbook, basically owning the libs and being as offensive as possible. I just don't think that will play on a national scale. He doesn't do it as well as Trump, plus, he has a whiny voice.

The bigwigs may not have a choice, however. If DeSantis, Pence, Pompeo, etc. split the not-Trump vote, Trump gets a plurality and with the winner-take-all system, he's the nominee, same as in 2016.
smiler2012 · 61-69
{@trollslayer] 🤔if trump wins the nomination too run for president i am almost certain the republicans will lose again in 2024 for all the reasons you stated
BohoBabe · M
@smiler2012 Keep in mind, everyone thought that in 2016. Make sure you vote.
smiler2012 · 61-69
@BohoBabe 😆 i am not american alas but if i where the democrats who have my vote no danger
BohoBabe · M
@smiler2012 Well getcho' self over here and vote!
justanothername · 51-55, M
Biden did well in the mid terms because he had ammunition to work with in terms of the anti abortion vote. This fired up female voters across America to have their say.
Biden himself is not that strong but that’s not to say that there isn’t another Democratic prospect waiting in the wings.

Other than that it’s anyone’s guess.
I think there are an awful lot of "lesser of two evils" matchups where Trump turns out to be the greater evil. Still, I hope Biden can be convinced to bow out and the democrats hold an open primary.

I think DeSantis vs Trump will be a fun war to watch. Neither will go down without a fight. And since Trump fights dirty, DeSantis will be forced to also. Stock up on popcorn!!
sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M
@ElwoodBlues Yeah, we know, you demonocrats even elekt dead men, typical of the bestest you have to offer
@sunsporter1649
sunsporter1649 · 70-79, M
Bill1372 · 51-55, M
That Fetterman dude would probably be an improvement from Biden. We’ve set the bar lower with each passing election. Dems love shock value
This message was deleted by the author of the main post.
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trollslayer · 46-50, M
@BohoBabe Well, I don't think Trump has gained support. He might have less support in the primaries, but in the general? There are very few Republicans that would ever vote for a Democrat. So many of them would still vote for Trump. But he has lost some support - even if it is only 1-2%, and in many states that could make a difference. But you are right, it is all about turnout. In 2020 you saw huge turnouts - vote-by-mail made it easier for many to vote who would not otherwise get off their butts to go to the poll. Also, there were many determined to not let Trump win, and many determined to "stick it to the libs".
BohoBabe · M
@trollslayer I don't think he's gained any support either. It's insane, but through all of these horrendous things he's done, his support has remained mostly the same.
SW-User
"My feeling is the only way Trump wins again is if the country is truly hurting,"

I've heard this said before and I just shake my head. Like....." well....I'm temporarily paying more than I like for gas...so WTF lets just ditch democracy and vote for fascism."

Trump is a traitor. Flat out. He's corrupt and 8 different investigations are pretty much the proof. He was found guilty of state fraud, interstate wire fraud........and numerous other felony charges with trump University. He paid $25 million to settle that...in lieu of prison. In NY State ---ditto. He stole from 2 charities to keep the money for himself. He was tried and found guilty of tax fraud......and several ogther felonies in that case and paid $2.3 million to avoid prison time. He pressured 2 governors to cheart an national election, was involved in a phony electors scam, stole Top Secret document to sell to Putin or China or the Saudi's......whomever paid him the most. When he lost an election he tried to use his suckers to overthrow our government and kill any lawmakers that he felt was disloyal so he could name himself Ruler of America. His entire life has been one crime after another...................but hey, if the economy is bad..........by golly let's vote for trump.

Stupid.
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walabby · M
Trump is a loser.
@walabby Way too simplistic a comment, imo.

The guy has turned millions into billions, and has millions of fan/voters willing to overlook basic precepts of society like not lying or stealing.

Sure, he's won some, and lost some, but he's yet to be convicted, and won't he win if he's convicted, gets elected and can self pardon?
walabby · M
@MistyCee Totally agree, but I'm feeling lazy, and if I started to elaborate, where would I stop. Pages could be written, and no one would read it all anyway.. XD
@walabby lol. I know the feeling.

I'm really looking forward to my children, or maybe my grandchildren living in a world where "he's a loser" doesnt explain everything.
The Republicans are divided they are going to screw themselves
The Republicans are divided they are going to screw themselves
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trollslayer · 46-50, M
@hunkalove I know quite a few people like you. They either took the chance with Trump because they saw him as not a true republican (outside establishment), or voted 3rd party. It only takes 1% to change an election. I saw the same in 2000. People uninspired by Gore voted Raph Nader. They did not do the same in 2004, but not because they liked John Kerry.
Ferise1 · 46-50, M
2020 was election fraud
trollslayer · 46-50, M
@Ferise1 attempted fraud. The fake electors were caught.

 
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