Trump in 2024

One reason Trump won in 2016 (despite having fewer people as a whole vote for him) is because many people had a strong negative opinion of Hilary Clinton going in. So, Trump won the "lesser of two evils" vote, and the "No more Bushes or Clintons" vote. He also won over moderate republicans willing to "give him a chance".

In 2020, Trump clearly lost the "lesser of two evils" vote because his own reputation as president was extremely negative outside of his base. Many of those moderate republicans were unwilling to give him another chance, and actually campaigned for Biden.

So what happens in 2024 if Trump is the GOP nominee? I doubt those "moderate republicans" will jump back on board. In fact, he probably lost more because he is a sore loser. I doubt his reputation will improve enough to win the "lesser of two evils" vote. Those that dislike him really dislike him, and they already voted against him in 2020, and they will do so again.

My feeling is the only way Trump wins again is if the country is truly hurting, the Dems stick with Biden or someone extremely uninspiring, and those in the middle either don't vote or vote 3rd party protest votes (a Ralph Nader vote), Trump wins here because even if his base is only 40-45%, they are much more energized than the base for the Democrats.

Thoughts?