Will the Next American War Be with China?

@spjennifer Not to mention China and Russia just made a clear statement that if the US wants a shooting war it will be on two fronts which not even the US can pull off.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow TBH, neither of them currently have the capability to engage in an all out shooting war with the US, Russia is a shadow of it's former self with 1 Aircraft carrier (Currently in dry dock for refit) and few available submarines, a lot of their equipment is old now. As for China they have the numbers but both their Military and its hardware are untested in battle. Our Military have been at war for the past 20 years in both Iraq and Afghanistan so our troops are well trained and well equipped but doubt too that we would want a war at this time...

@spjennifer This is not the Yeltsin era. Aircraft carriers don't matter and even US think tanks are saying they are basically battlships circa 1944. They are big targets that cost billions and can be taken out with a missile that costs about the same as an economy car. The Russian Navy bombarded Syria without even leaving their ports.

And the Russian and Chinese missile tech is actually much more advanced than the US. The US has not even designed an ICBM since the BeeGees were top of the charts and the last ones were build around the same time. Most of the US budget for strategic weapons is just keeping them from blowing up in their silos. The US also only has a single company left capable of making long range missiles. A company that is famous for two things, delivering late and massively over budget. Obama's "new" spending on nukes was on a Korean war era bomb that requires a B-52 to actually fly directly over a target to deploy.


Your military has been at war with amateurs and has not fought a real nation since Korea and have lost basically every war since Korea.

Even the NVA was not a serious peer.

@spjennifer China owns a good-sized chunk of it, but not the majority. Most of it is owned by USA citizens or the government itself. And, they don't owe it out of some generosity or interest in keeping "the base" warm, dumb, and uneducated. They own it for the return on investment they get.

@MarkPaul You really really should do some basic googling before shooting your mouth off like that. It is embarrassing.

@MarkPaul China, Russia and their allies have also been working for years creating parallel banking structures too so it is also only a matter of time before the USD goes the way of the Pound Sterling.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow So, in your Harry Potter view of the world, it will take centuries for the Western developed world to rebuild manufacturing capabilities, but it will take literal moments for Russian, China, and the undeveloped world to take control of the world economy. Are there any other theories you want to push out, genius?

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow You grossly underestimate the US's capabilities, those Aircraft carriers are surrounded by some very capable ships and submarines too, notwithstanding the fact that they also carry squadrons of the world's most advanced fighter jets. So their missile technology is more advanced than ours and totally unproven in battle. A missile that can travel Mach 5 still has to hit it's target to be of any value and just how many of those do they really have, like 50 so far? Iraq had the 4th largest Military and were wiped out in 4 weeks...

@spjennifer Again, even US sources have stated they are a status symbol but as weapons of war like the battleship they are of no consequence against a real military. Sure they are great against dope farmers in Afghanistan, but not against a real near peer nation state.

Again, even Israel released back in 2018 I believe it was an assessment that stealth tech would be irrelevant in less than 7 years. Russia already has systems that can track and engage stealth aircraft. The F22 and F35 have also been plagued with serious design flaws.


Totally unproven in battle? Russia took out ISIS in a matter of weeks from their home ports, something the USAF could not do in 2 years.


When they cold 1/1000th of the price of a single carrier you can fire entire volleys. And only one has to connect.

Germany's military was decades ahead of the allies in WW2 and that didn't do them any good long term.


And please don't bring up Iraq. Claiming there were a serious military threat to anyone is just being dishonest.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow Those so-called "dope farmers in Afghanistan" beat back the mighty Russians too. The F35 is being purchased by many allied Nations so are you saying they are all fools, even Israel has bought them? How many deals have the Russians and Chinese signed to sell their mighty fighters, about none. Your well known dislike of the American Military blinds you to the actual capabilities we have. Sure Iraq had an underwhelming Military but they were still the 4th largest after ours, China and Russia...

@spjennifer It is being purchased by many allies because it is being pressured onto them by the US government desperate to spread around the cost of the biggest white elephant in modern military history. The day Japan took delivery of theirs one burst into flames on the tarmac.

[quote]How many deals have the Russians and Chinese signed to sell their mighty fighters, about none. [/quote]


You have got to be joking. Russian designed jets are probably the most common on the entire planet.


This has nothing to do with personal dislike. This has to do with facts.


Blind patriotism doesn't magically make the US military invincible.


4th largest means nothing in that case and you know it. China and Russia have professional armies, not thousands of young, untrained, and starving conscripts with barely enough training not to shoot themselves.

@spjennifer US carriers really are at a massive risk against anything resembling a modern navy, and Russia/China have [i]way[/i] more of those sea-skimming hypersonic anti-ship missiles than anybody would like.

Fantastic for power projection against low-tech opponents though, which is most of them.

@QuixoticSoul And even a shooting war is economics. The Gerald Ford was just shy of 40 billion. And it can be taken out by a missile that costs about as much as a nice car.

Correction: the per unit cost of the Gerald Ford is 13 billion the program was about 38 billion.

@QuixoticSoul By comparison the entire Canadian defense budget right now is 23 billion.

@spjennifer I would also point out trying to compare numbers of US versus Russian and Chinese carriers is a fools errand anyway because the doctrine behind how they are used is literally completely opposite.


There is a reason in the Russian navy they are classified as aircraft carrying heavy cruisers.


In the US navy a battle group protects the carrier which is a floating close air support/ strike bomber base essentially.


Russian and Chinese carriers carry air defense fighters and serve as air cover for the rest of the fleet while the bombard targets with missiles. So they serve completely different functions and have very different capabilities. Incidentally that would probably also put aircraft on a Russian carrier specifically designed to kill planes like the F35.

And the last fleet defense fighter of the USN was the F 14 which was never replaced.

@spjennifer Actually Japan holds more of Americas debt than China

@MissTaken You don't need to have it all to cause chaos if you wanted to. 1.3 trillion being dumped onto the market would not be just a hiccup. Also it could result in the whole "do they know something I don't?" panic you often see in the stock market for example.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow True - I was simply trying to point out for accuracies sake that Japan held more American debt than China 🙂

@spjennifer I’ve often wondered what happens to all that US debt owned by the Chinese if they did start shooting

@ButterRobot Nothing much, the whole “omg the Chinese own our debt” thing is way overblown.

@QuixoticSoul just sounds weird that the US paying out on Bonds would be funding the Chinese war effort

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow Interesting that a Canadian, who's never served in any Military is so well informed on Military Doctrine of the US? I served 10 years in the US Army and 25 years in the USAF and have seen firsthand the so-called wondrous capabilities of the Russians and Chinese you tout so highly. A large part of either of their military are also "conscripts" as you defined the Iraqis so they are anything but "Professional". Curious that you would also characterize us as having no fleet defense fighter, the F-18E Super Hornet is quite capable of Fleet Defense amongst other roles. As for the Canadian Military which I served alongside many times, they are indeed Professionals, they are sized to suit your population though so comparing your Military budget to ours is laughable at best, we have more fighters on one Navy carrier than your entire Air Force has...

@QuixoticSoul

[quote]the whole “omg the Chinese own our debt” thing is way overblown.[/quote]

Agreed as it's mostly all just paper and electronic funds, no real gold backing it but they do also own a lot of real estate and many companies.

@spjennifer Military doctrine on things like carriers is not exactly secret. Anyone capable of reading Jane's can learn this shit. I also have a good friend who was in SAC and literally targeted ICBMs for a living.


You seem so desperate to pretend the Iraqui Army was a serious near peer threat to bolster you point. Nobody is buying it. It is an insult to the intelligence of anyone who knows anything about these things.


And now you are changing the definition of what a professional army is to try and push you narrative that is one giant cold war cliche.


The F-18 is a primarily a strike fighter just like the F-35 and nowhere near on the same level. Comparing the F18 to the F14 is like comparing it to an F-15 or F22. Not even in the same ball park.



My point of mentioning the Canadian defense budget is to point out that with the amount DOD spends it is probably the worst ROI in human history.

The US spends 10 or more times than China and Russia combined and get worse results....kind of like the US healthcare system.


The F35 is a great example. The most expensive fighter ever and even the US government has gone on record that it is a failure.


I grew up on military bases and have family and friends in all branches and friends in the US military and a few ex French Legionaires in my circle of friends.

Just because I could not pass a medical doesn't make me an idiot.