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A political question for those of you in the US...

What, in your view, are the chances of Trump winning again?

Given all the baggage and the January 6 stuff it seems incredulous that he's even in the conversation ... but try and help me understand why the odds suggest it's as close as 50/50.

Not looking for an argument, but just trying desperately to understand HOW and WHY.

Thanks.
SumKindaMunster · 51-55, M
I'll try to help you out...

So first, keep this statement in mind when discussing Trump...

"The Press takes Trump literally, but not seriously. Trump supporters take him seriously, but not literally."

I see you reside in the UK. Unfortunately the UK press is completely biased and obnoxious. If all you know about Trump and his supporters is through the media in the UK, you are never going to understand.

Unfortunately the American Press has followed your poor examples and is totally in the tank for the Democrats...aka Necons/Neoliberals...its all war and identity politics.

Meanwhile more and more and more illegals pour over the border disrupting our way of life and taking benefits meant for the people working here. Check out the stories of Venezuelans taking over Apartment buildings in Aurora, and Haitians squatting on properties in Ohio.

Perhaps that's something you could understand. Trump is serious about closing the border and stopping illegal immigration. Can you point to any other major politicians right now in the Western world doing the same? Working class people are sick of having to pay and pay and pay and then watch our government fly in illegal aliens and give them money benefits.
sree251 · 41-45, M
@SteelHands
A leftist dooms themselves to being controlled by others all his or her life. Once they decide to select emotions over logic there is no bridge or ladder to climb out of that primordial feminine state. Only by their destruction can they stop torturing themselves in the self constructed prison of their madness.

Emotion over logic. This is why the two sides can never see eye to eye.
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SteelHands · 61-69, M
Both sides have pride as the backdrop.
emiliya · 22-25, F
I am Russian, but I will tell you what the chances of Trump winning are, and why…

In any election, if votes are counted fairly, there is a chance any candidate could win. In the US, this is either going to be a Republican or Democrat candidate. Independents can sometimes gain a sizeable following. RFK Jr. had one, but not enough to win. The reason Donald Trump is the Republican nominee is that he has significant support. You seem surprised that he could win, and I question why when he has already been president once, and already has the nomination. He has support all across America. Trump is an indomitable force; they have thrown numerous court cases at him, he has been convicted, sued, and had his character constantly maligned in the media. There was also an attempt on his life. Trump is a revolutionary who shows that even a conviction cannot stop you.

Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is a snake with no real popularity. Trump's chances of winning against her are high. However, we have to keep in mind that elections are rigged in America. “Rigging” is also media interference in elections, and America undoubtedly has that. The 2020 election was rigged through covid and the extreme media and Democrat portrayals of Trump.

In 2022, the Supreme Court finally got rid of the unconstitutional Roe v. Wade, and this was due to Trump.

Trump appeals to America because his politics center around America. He wants to bring back American manufacturing, he wants to stop illegal migrants entering US, and he wants to end the war in Ukraine. When Democrats talk about America, they talk about diversity, their phony idea of democracy, and they have tried to give their campaign a “happy” message. This is only going to work for people who believe their lies and are afraid of getting rid of the status quo. America showed in 2016 that it can, and will, make good and brave choices. Were it not for covid, a virus that was made by scientists funded by Fauci, Trump would have probably been reelected.

A man like Trump is going to be controversial in UK, as it is not used to independent thinkers and people are highly dependent on the state. Many British do like Trump, but their elites would never allow him to win. The British are kept down by their masters, and a lot of them are ignorant about politics. This is what happens when you rely on the state to teach you everything. It uses its power to tell you what to think.
sree251 · 41-45, M
@4185philip
you underestimate and obviously don't know us Brits After all we did elect Boris Johnson

What are you implying?
4185philip · 70-79, M
@sree251 Your last paragraph proves you know little about British politics.
emiliya · 22-25, F
@4185philip You need to read our usernames.

Are you trying to say Johnson is right wing? Do you think Britain is right wing? You have a civil service, politicians, numerous judges, and a secular public who would never allow you to be right wing. What was Brexit about? What did you achieve?
Nimbus · M
All Americans need to ask themselves is "Do they want to see the rest of the USA go the way San Francisco and Los Angeles is?".
It's a no brainer!
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@Nimbus In what sense? Are you talking about how huge the GDP of those cities are?
AbbeyRhode · F
In a fair election? He'd win by the biggest landslide in history. The real deciding factor of the election is how much cheating the Democrats will get away with.
I understand that people from other countries only know what they hear and read from our lying propaganda media. The fact is, like him or not, President Trump is genuine, he loves this country, and he intends to make life better for all Americans.
The traitorous regime currently in power is only interested in enriching themselves, and they don't care how many American lives are sacrificed in that pursuit.
marybmom · 31-35, F
Let me try, America is almost equally divided. If daffy duck were the republican nominee and donald duck were the democratic nominee they would each enter election day with 42% to 45% of the total vote just based on the R or D behind their name. So American elections are close starting out. 10 to 16% of the American population decides the presidential elections.
sree251 · 41-45, M
@marybmom
10 to 16% of the American population decides the presidential elections.

This is generally the case with all elections. The majority are too busy with their lives. This is why democracies are run by regimes, a small group that controls the rest. Any attempt to change the status quo will be squashed by group in power.
@marybmom A very good analogy
PowerofStories · 61-69, M
I think your question is a fair one, but Similar Worlds is probablynot the ideal place to get an answer -- given that we are all keyboard warriors looking to pass the time or to connect with others in our "similar" worlds.

I think if you look at US presidential elections, you won't find a recent one where the spread between the candidates was even as high as 60/40. People choose their team or tribe, root for it and stay loyal through thick and thin.

And once they do, they rarely change their minds, even when confronted with contrary facts. They remain trapped in the story they have told themselves and as more information emerges, they embrace the new information that supports their "team" and reject the source of any information that conflicts with their self-story.
sree251 · 41-45, M
@PowerofStories
And once they do, they rarely change their minds, even when confronted with contrary facts. They remain trapped in the story they have told themselves and as more information emerges, they embrace the new information that supports their "team" and reject the source of any information that conflicts with their self-story.

We are raised in a football culture and support the home team against every other till we win the championship. It is the same way we support the US military against foreign enemies regardless of what we fight for.
SteelHands · 61-69, M
Since European governments strickly rely on emotional manipulation to control its upper class your government owned and managed propagandists won't allow you to see how much of a fake NO VOTE democrat primary elected candidate Harris is.

While here we are better informed about what conniving liars they, the uniparty, and their lapdogs in legacy media are. The CIA lack box money with only a small amount of controlled opposition, the self annointed intellectual elites, and ivory tower corporate monopolists.

This is about as plain as it can be. Trump is a rich prik but he's a rich prik not beholden to the uniparty fascists and marxists with about 75% of the usa supprting him.

Harris is a slick campaign fund creation that is both radical and believes in nothing but her own glamour with a buy me tag on her forehead. About 12-15% I figure are dumb enough to vote for her.

It's gonna take a lot of ballot harvesting and voting machine manipulation to gaslight as many as they did with biden.
hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M
@SteelHands Very well said. About the only thing I disagree with is your estimate of how many clueless Americans will vote for her. There are a lot of socialists and grifters who support her thinking that she will give them free stuff. Sad but true.
Fukfacewillie · 56-60, M
@SteelHands
SteelHands · 61-69, M
@hippyjoe1955 You're correct about the self entitled I made it a career supporting my family providing clean and safe housing for these people. What most of the rest of us working people don't realize is that being a tax parasite doesn't make a person dumb.

In truth they realize that voting is a sign of self determination and a disadvantage using the entitlement systems. For one thing they realize they shouldn't vote or they might end up with jury duty. The last thing a pothead do nothing wants is to be forced to wait through that crap. Next when applying for freebies that gets looked up and so do jail sentences. The more you cost the system the faster and smoother your dole med food rent assist app and bi annual reapproval goes. You can end up being asked to go scrub toilets and shovel snow.

They know this. Besides. In most cases when the deep state decides to fk over the public they will make that decision for them. It's no secret to them. They call it the stupidity of voting for the head krook. No lie. I got a bunch of real eye openers about the Black and Hispanic view of what they refer to as "the white man's system" and "white man's laws".

I doubted them until I saw Biden "win". Now I'm sure of it. Those politicians have been screaming about it for years. You know it. They know it. Because they listen.

We just don't listen.
MasterLee · 56-60, M
Oh about 100%.
Willster · M
I was merely asking a question. Jeez.

Instead of chucking that back at me, why not try and help me understand what it is that some Americans see in Trump.
Willster · M
This is exhausting… I’m done. Enjoy your day.
MasterLee · 56-60, M
@Willster wow. Your commenting on a US election that you know nothing about and now uncomfortable when a US citizen comments in yours? Priceless.
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hippyjoe1955 · 61-69, M
If a free and open election were held in the US Trump would win in a landslide. However the US does not have free and open elections. Biden didn't win the last election. There was enormous cheating that took place. If the same cheating takes place in this election then the US will become a third world backwater nation under the incompetent Harris and the bureaucrats who love to start wars rule over a stinking pile of human excrement as more and more Americans become homeless addicts.
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justanothername · 51-55, M
They are also total lemmings who follow their cult master who decrees that anyone who disagrees with him on any subject is committing treason and should be abused and ridiculed and evicted from the country.
emiliya · 22-25, F
@justanothername Democrats do the same, but they lack the good policies that Trump has. Trump shows that people may be willing to give up so-called democracy if it means having no illegal immigrants flood their country and watching their nation be destroyed from within by powerful elites.

This “democracy” you speak of is the Democrat Party, the FBI, and the CIA making decisions on behalf of America.
sree251 · 41-45, M
@emiliya
This “democracy” you speak of is the Democrat Party, the FBI, and the CIA making decisions on behalf of America.

It is a much more complex than that. The Republican and Democrat Parties are a Punch and Judy Show set up for the American people. Backstage, there is no political divide. All politicians sleep together and eat together. They collaborate to keep the show alive and keep Americans entertained so that they keep paying the taxes. Punch and Judy take turns, as the situation demands, to occupy the White House. The politicians in Congress runs the Administration.
justanothername · 51-55, M
@emiliya Garden variety republicans are fine, it’s the MAGA cult worshipers that are the problem. If you exclude them from the pack you would get a normal America. If you include them in the pack then you get conspiracy theory debates on everything you want to talk about.
ChipmunkErnie · 70-79, M
I live in fear of it; the depths to which many of my fellow Americans will sink scare me. I'm hoping I won;t see the end of American Democracy, but I'm not sure. How and why? I don't really know. But remember, Hitler was elected in a democracy. Mussolini was elected. :(
Harris will win the popular vote but the electoral vote is going to be close. It comes down to WI, MI and PA. She is currently ahead in all three but by varying small margins. Right now the odds are slightly better than 50/50 in her favor. After the debate tonight, that may change a bit. And Harris has a traditional campaign with local offices, workers and volunteers in all battleground states. Trump doesn't to the same extent. Changing minds about the candidates with undecided voters will be over after tonight. And the rest of the work will be activating your followers to vote. My conservative prediction is Harris wins 276-262.
RageAgainstTheMachine · 36-40, M
Reporting from Australia, this race is over. Fear mongering has lost its power thus Trump has limited ammo tonight.
Nevertooold · 56-60, M
Honestly....this is what government has become in America...very sad
Ynotisay · M
I truly can't say and it's something that blows my mind on a daily basis.
All its proven is how EASILY people can be manipulated through fear, lies and anger.
It's the lack of self-respect, even more than a lack of intelligence, that's extremely hard to take as an American.
Given all the baggage and the January 6 stuff it seems incredulous that he's even in the conversation ... but try and help me understand why the odds suggest it's as close as 50/50.

People don't realize how huge the right-wing propaganda machine is. Talk radio is completely right-wing, social media signal boosts right-wing content, and Fox News is the biggest "news" network on TV. Conservative content is also funded by billionaires and foreign governments.

I don't really believe the polls, but I'm sure Trump has a good chance of winning because the average person doesn't fact-check claims. Also, liberal media does a very poor job of explaining how dangerous the Trump Cult really is. CNN and MSNBC will talk about the riot on 1/6, because it's interesting and gets them ratings, but they don't talk about the Fake Electors Plot or the Green Bay Sweep, which actually could have ended democracy.
smileylovesgaming · 31-35, F
I think a lot of people are tired of sleepy pants Joe so they want nothing to do with her because she is with him. So the only other person really is Trump. He is just a better choice over all
ChipmunkErnie · 70-79, M
And, this being the USA, Trump could actually lose the popular vote -- as he did last time, 46.1% to Clinton's 48.2% -- and still win in the Electoral College.
@ChipmunkErnie The last time, he lost both.
ChipmunkErnie · 70-79, M
@SomeMichGuy Okay, the time before, when he won the Electoral College.
1490wayb · 56-60, M
the winner is determined by the electoral college. each state has a certain number of votes based on population. most states are known what the outcome will be in advance. there are 5-6 states that could go either way and they will determine the winner...remember 2000 election between gore and bush!! it came down to just one county in florida and the hanging chads on the paper ballots took many weeks to determine. also hillary clinton won the popular vote, but lost the electoral vote!!
@1490wayb Because of the way the Dade and Broward county ballot books were misaligned to the ballot punch cards, confusing the hell out of the voters. I worked for the Washington County, Oregon, elections department for the May 1990 and May 1992 state primaries, my job was to assemble the books by clamping a pivoting metal spine onto the edges of the pages that were to be placed within the individual precinct books, I had to be extremely accurate, even one millimeter off alignment could mess that book up, bad. When 2000 happened I called up my old elections department manager and he confirmed what I thought had happened, an assembler rushed the books in Dade and Broward counties, causing misalignment, thus the confusion.
1490wayb · 56-60, M
@NativePortlander1970 where i live we are going backwards from mechanical to touchscreen and now paper ballots haha
@1490wayb In all honesty I'd love to see all precincts go back to total analog machine voting, the kind that you just pushed a lever down next to the name, there was never second guessing those.
Patriot96 · 56-60, C
You need to stop watching cnn and bbc
swirlie · 31-35, F
To scare people in the USA to get off their butts and vote. If Harris was in the lead by a large margin, Americans would not go out and vote. The 50/50 tie I believe is a hoax.
The better question to ask is what's your thoughts on January 6?
@Willster [media=https://youtu.be/bZ74uT8WcZ8]

[media=https://youtu.be/GazSTh7dzIM]

[media=https://youtu.be/1BlXZNL2RoA]

[media=https://youtu.be/evRIetWVqQk]

[media=https://youtu.be/eILg3Ocjrvg]

[media=https://youtu.be/3tjCsGMFpKc]

[media=https://youtu.be/WiT3vamfVXk]

[media=https://youtu.be/YPt4ulVGGDE]

[media=https://youtu.be/jsm-DKkvVYA]
@Willster I should also add, that you being a foreign national means that you have zero rights to complain about United States political issues and United States politicians.
MasterLee · 56-60, M
@Willster the coup was with pelosi and pence.
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