I am Russian, but I will tell you what the chances of Trump winning are, and why…
In any election, if votes are counted fairly, there is a chance any candidate could win. In the US, this is either going to be a Republican or Democrat candidate. Independents can sometimes gain a sizeable following. RFK Jr. had one, but not enough to win. The reason Donald Trump is the Republican nominee is that he has significant support. You seem surprised that he could win, and I question why when he has already been president once, and already has the nomination. He has support all across America. Trump is an indomitable force; they have thrown numerous court cases at him, he has been convicted, sued, and had his character constantly maligned in the media. There was also an attempt on his life. Trump is a revolutionary who shows that even a conviction cannot stop you.
Kamala Harris, on the other hand, is a snake with no real popularity. Trump's chances of winning against her are high. However, we have to keep in mind that elections are rigged in America. “Rigging” is also media interference in elections, and America undoubtedly has that. The 2020 election was rigged through covid and the extreme media and Democrat portrayals of Trump.
In 2022, the Supreme Court finally got rid of the unconstitutional Roe v. Wade, and this was due to Trump.
Trump appeals to America because his politics center around America. He wants to bring back American manufacturing, he wants to stop illegal migrants entering US, and he wants to end the war in Ukraine. When Democrats talk about America, they talk about diversity, their phony idea of democracy, and they have tried to give their campaign a “happy” message. This is only going to work for people who believe their lies and are afraid of getting rid of the status quo. America showed in 2016 that it can, and will, make good and brave choices. Were it not for covid, a virus that was made by scientists funded by Fauci, Trump would have probably been reelected.
A man like Trump is going to be controversial in UK, as it is not used to independent thinkers and people are highly dependent on the state. Many British do like Trump, but their elites would never allow him to win. The British are kept down by their masters, and a lot of them are ignorant about politics. This is what happens when you rely on the state to teach you everything. It uses its power to tell you what to think.