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Inflation as a Fiscal Limit

A paper released at the same Jackson Hole, Wyoming, summit where Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently spoke makes the case that federal government spending needs to come down in order that Federal Reserve policy can do its job in bringing down our current high inflation.

The central bank can’t do the job itself and could even make the matters worse with rate hikes.

The paper's conclusion about the impacts of the current fiscal policies on inflation:

they ... contributed to the surge in fiscal inflation. Increasing rates, by itself,
would not have prevented the recent surge in inflation, given that a large part of the increase was due to a change in the perceived policy mix. In fact, increasing rates without the appropriate fiscal backing could
result in fiscal stagflation.

Where will Biden Administration and the Democratic congress cut spending? Does anyone know of any pending legislation proposing such cuts? I'd love to read it.

The link to the paper is here:
https://www.kansascityfed.org/Jackson%20Hole/documents/9037/JH_Paper_Bianchi.pdf
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
Thank goodness for Biden... I know thats going to be controversial... But at least no one is still trying to pretend the US economy is still sailing along on the crest of a wave with a following breeze and all is well. It has not been so for decades.. But what the pandemic and supply chain disruptions. (Plus Russia in the Ukraine) has done is force a tipping point so that what was being held back behind a creaking wall of printed money, debt and subsidies now has to be faced.. That doesnt make it any less horrible. But now people can see the light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train.. The whole world has a problem. But America is less prepared than most to deal with it. And thats not down to Biden..😷
irishmolly72 · 56-60, F
@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow I'm chatting with it right now.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@irishmolly72 I wouldnt argue with that. But as an outsider I see it all over. The whole system now lacks credability, which is bad. But worse, no one outside believes or trust America any more. Even if you manage to sort out your internal issues. (and there is no sign of that) America has lost all its cred internationally.😷
@irishmolly72 Only by accident. But you also think Biden is a Marxist, so yeah.
easterniowegin · 51-55, M
Democrats don't cut spending. Conservatives project when we think cutting spending is an option.
If dems want to impact the budget they raise taxes, never cut spending.
samueltyler2 · 80-89, M
@easterniowegin I give up with you. I have tried hard to be a "gentleman," and you don't seem to believe in that. I also thought that i was helping others to learn the truths. Attacking me, calling me lazy, because i disagree with you and believe that science builds consensus through research, shows that you are so entrenched in your belief that I am wasting my time.

As to NIH listing ivermectin as therapy, NO, that is nonsense. There may be people who are still studying it, but the broadest opinion is that at doses that can be reached therapeutically, it does not seem to alter either the infection with covid, or the course of illness or prevent serious complications or death. Worldwide, the most respected reviewer of evidence is the Cochrane Report. They published this in June:

"Authors' conclusions: For outpatients, there is currently low- to high-certainty evidence that ivermectin has no beneficial effect for people with COVID-19. Based on the very low-certainty evidence for inpatients, we are still uncertain whether ivermectin prevents death or clinical worsening or increases serious adverse events, while there is low-certainty evidence that it has no beneficial effect regarding clinical improvement, viral clearance and adverse events. No evidence is available on ivermectin to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection. In this update, certainty of evidence increased through higher quality trials including more participants. According to this review's living approach, we will continually update our search.

Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. on behalf of The Cochrane Collaboration."

If you still insist the NIH states it is used in the treatment, show that to us all.

"The NIH includes ivermectin on a list of drugs that are being evaluated as COVID-19 possible treatments. But its Treatment Guidelines Panel has not recommended “for or against” the use of ivermectin to treat COVID-19, citing the need for more clinical trials. We rate this claim False.
No, the National Institutes of Health has not approved ivermectin t…"

https://www.poynter.org/fact-checking/2021/no-the-national-institutes-of-health-has-not-approved-ivermectin-to-treat-covid-19/#:~:text=The%20NIH%20includes%20ivermectin%20on%20a%20list%20of,more%20clinical%20trials.%20We%20rate%20this%20claim%20False.

From the NIH Website:
"Recommendation
The Panel recommends against the use of ivermectin for the treatment of COVID-19, except in clinical trials"
https://www.covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/therapies/antiviral-therapy/ivermectin/

Please do not insult me.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35726131/
easterniowegin · 51-55, M
@samueltyler2 the link was literally in my post. You're not very thorough to read the entire content of a post?

Here is a pic for you, since you seem to need to be spoonfed. Directly from the nih site.

You don't seem to want to find out the actual truth...you're just one of those "the science is settled" types, i guess.

I have zero patience for "scientists" who never question anything...or only question things from a certain perspective. This is why a lot of ppl now have no trust in their physicians or the clinical field after the last 2 yrs.
And this concludes my interactions with you, as you seem intentionally against discovery or other ideas/info.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M
@easterniowegin I don't want to act as disrespectful as you, but, again, learn to read. it is being evaluated! It is not to be used except in research. I feel sorry for people like you who have become so angry that you are blinded to what science is about. Yes, I question my knowledge daily, I rely on sources that are valid, not people that simply spout what the far right feeds them.
DeluxedEdition · 26-30, F
Let’s pay off everyone’s school loans so milk can cost $10 a gallon
ViciDraco · 36-40, M
@irishmolly72 and how do we decide to do that? Who do we trust to actually do the research to know what the cascading effects are. For example, a lot of people think military spending is a god thing to cut. That we need to stop being the world police. However, being the world police means that we are trusted to have secure trade routes. Which in turn helps support the use of the US dollar as the world reserve currency, which in turn makes our currency much more stable and gives a great deal of other advantages in international trade. Most people won't follow the path that far before voting.

Same with education and research grants. They make serious investments to the future of our productivity as a nation. If we cut those we hamstring ourselves in global competitiveness.

No social security? Guess nobody retires until they die or are medically unable to work and either become a burden on their family or are left to rot.
irishmolly72 · 56-60, F
@ViciDraco As an alternative to voters deciding you would let a central planner decide. They have such a great track record!
samueltyler2 · 80-89, M
@irishmolly72 who is the "us?" who do you suggest is in any position to make the choices you suggest? No one really knows what the founders of the US were really thinking. Weren't they rebelling against a small government run by a king?
Just a hunch, but all the reckless spending that drives inflation through the roof might just be intentional. My shocked face: 🙄
irishmolly72 · 56-60, F
@BizSuitStacy My take is that it's collateral damage which is a byproduct of buying the votes you need for reelection.
DallasCowboysFan · 61-69, M
It won't be anytime soon. The midterm elections are just a few weeks away.
And then they have to prep for the presidential election, spending more money.
They have no intention of reducing spending or paying it back,
They are going to inflate us out of debt with devalued dollars.
DallasCowboysFan · 61-69, M
@whowasthatmaskedman The Chinese are bluffing. Their currency is controlled by the CCP. They set the exchange rate not the free market. They keep shutting down cities for Covid...and their economy is suffering. They started demolishing ghost cities, buildings built during boom times and now they are vacant. They have a real estate problem that dwarfs the one we had in 2008. The U.S. has an open society , not so much for China. They also control people leaving the country and the currency that they can export, either thru the internet or physically carrying it. It will be decades before people have confidence in the Chinese yuan or remnibi, before it challenges the U.S. It won't be a reserve currency anytime soon.

P.S. Some people are suggesting that the cities that they have shut down recently (for Covid) were done as a cover. They are requiring some companies to stop manufacturing goods for the civilian market and transition to manufacturing for the military defense sector. China's learning from Russia's recent mistakes with Ukraine and they are stockpiling and prepping for the invasion of Taiwan.
DallasCowboysFan · 61-69, M
@irishmolly72 I hope the Cowboys make it to the playoffs. They had a pretty good year last season. They were 12-5, but they lost the first game of the playoffs.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@DallasCowboysFan Actually, your comments about currency are quite correct. Just not relevent. In fact a centralized, government managed currency actually gives China an edge for this. As a major trader they can claim the right to buy and sell in any currency they want. In fact they are already using their trading power to purchase raw materials in their own currency. No $US required. Setting their exchange rate then becomes part of the price setting process. Its the fact that the US currency used to be backed by gold that make it stable. Now its just convention and the idea that the US was a trading powerhouse, .. But now it is more of an importing powerhouse, except for food. (Like a lot of third world countries...No offence, but its a fact)
But to follow that same line the other way. China doesnt need to become the Reserve trader Currency owner. They simply have to remove America from that spot. Right now America sits on the border of every trade that goes on in the world. Buying and selling $US and taking a small commission on each sale for nothing. Just like a stock broker charging brokerage, whether the trade makes a profit or not. Without that income, the value of the $US will plummet. And as I said, that process has already started.
As for Chinese cities being locked down. I dont have an opinion. But sounds a little like conspiracy theory to me.😷
Well the first part shows a lack of understanding of how inflation has been dealt with for a century at this point.

And interest rate hikes is how it has been dealt with for 100 years. So it doesn't "make it worse."



And what you are suggesting is austerity which has been thoroughly debunked and only makes the poor and what is left of the middle class worse off at the expense of the absolute richest people. Even the IMF which has been the greatest pusher of it for decades admitted in an official paper it was bogus.
irishmolly72 · 56-60, F
@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow Well,... I guess you told me then, huh? 🤪
@irishmolly72 Sorry but some things are just objectively true. You are entitled to your opinions, but not your own facts. And to head this off, no facts and random opinions are not the same thing despite what the GOP will tell you.
irishmolly72 · 56-60, F
@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow

You are entitled to your opinions, but not your own facts

Do you have every single internet meme memorized? C'mon get a little creative! ☺️
wildbill83 · 36-40, M
The only place democrats cut spending are programs that actually benefit the country and it's citizens; they'll pour money into anything that doesn't, and if they run out, they just print more money
easterniowegin · 51-55, M
@wildbill83 it always seems to have a negative impact on poor/middle class. Makes you wonder, is it intentional, or does EVERY change just have unintended consequences with them?!
Ynotisay · M
The deficit in 2020 when Trump left office was $3.1 Trillion. It was at about $650B when he started his term. The tax cuts for the wealthiest took care of that.

Today, under Biden, it's at roughly $662 billion. Narrowed by a record amount in July actually.

Sorry. Something tells me you don't like that.
irishmolly72 · 56-60, F
@Ynotisay The FY23 Budget gives us a glimpse of the future:

President Biden released his Fiscal Year (FY) 2023 budget which includes:

$73 trillion in spending – a 66% increase over the previous 10 years
$58 trillion in taxes – a 80% increase over the previous 10 years
$16 trillion in new public debt with $1+ trillion deficits every year for the next 10 years.
samueltyler2 · 80-89, M
@irishmolly72 did you happen to notice where the "increase" in taxes comes from? If you cheat on yiour taxes, you will more likely be caught, is that bad?
redredred · M
In Washington a program that was 92% over budget last year, that is only 87% over last years overage, this year, has experienced a cut in spending.

The ONLY cause of inflation is government action.
@redredred And thank you for proving once again right wingers don't understand economics even at a high school level.

That is a new level of dumb even for you.
redredred · M
@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow I very well understand economics and I’m quoting the late Milton Friedman, the greatest economist of our time, so, what’s your ignorant, uninformed, pointless opinion?
easterniowegin · 51-55, M
@redredred I understand exactly what you're saying. It's part of the manipulation the left does.

Reducing a department's expected increase for the following year is NOT reducing the budget...it is reducing the the increase. But the increase still occurs, just at a lower rate.
Dems love to spend money.
ViciDraco · 36-40, M
Low unemployment is as much and more to blame for the high inflation. But I haven't really heard many people calling for companies to start reducing their headcount.

Supply lines are also still needing to loosen up and recover a little more. Limited supplies of a lot of things have also been inflationary.

Tax policy is where we need to fix the federal spending. It's not increasing the money supply if we're actually taking in as revenue what we are spending. Let the wealthy who only managed to grow wealthier on the back of the pandemic and every other crises over the last few decades start eating the cost of inflation.
ViciDraco · 36-40, M
@irishmolly72 the bills being passed now are promoting a return of American manufacturing. Especially in the field of semiconductors and battery tech which asia has a pretty strong hold on. Those policies should be good not just for increasing supply side availability, but for strengthening national security by removing foreign dependence upon things needed for our advanced tech to operate.
Slade · 56-60, M
@ViciDraco and...

The subject is macroeconomics not one sector
irishmolly72 · 56-60, F
@ViciDraco We'll see. It always sound great at first.
curiousaboy · 26-30, M
Only general people have to suffer inflation.
tenente · 100+, M
just read an accurate synopsis of post pandemic purchasing power and fiscal policy on SimilarWorlds™ dude how high am i right now?
irishmolly72 · 56-60, F
@tenente At age 100, you are proof that one never stops learning!

 
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