Some people see the fuel crisis as a 'manufactured emergency' to stem the huge decline of interest in electric vehicles

But is it?

The pro-EV wonks are all claiming the current situation as a moral victory for the Twin Cults of Electric Jesus Christ and Net Zero. Yet the main push is not for EV's but to panic the general public into getting solar and batteries for their homes which most people cannot afford without incentives/rebates and credit finance to fund the purchases,

There's lots of anecdotal reporting that Telsa Cybertruck interest is tanking. Thankfully the wankpanzer has never (yet) been made in RHD so will never be sold in this country. Here in Australia, it's currently a 'war' between incumbent Felon Musk's Tesla (maker of high end EV's) and Chinese BYD (maker of cheap [relatively speaking] EV's) for the bulk of EV market share, with very minor presences of other car makers in the BEV space. EV's still make up less than 5 percent of all registered vehicles in Australia.

Liqud fuel for non-EV's is still insanely cheap currently hovering around A$3 a litre for diesel and a bit less for petrol. Before Trump's Folly it was only just under $2 a ltire, so the price hasn't risen much at all yet.

That said I haven't filled up my 4wd in a few weeks (since before Trump started his phony oil control war), and my car is out of rego so I can't drive it anyway. The 4wd takes 140 litres so will def be a cost impost to fill, but I don't have to plug it in to 'charge' every day to deal with range anxiety.

Both vehicles were filled up before Trump's pet project began. Car only needs it's annual rego inspection $50, then I have to pay for rego + tax and compulsory third party insurance (both about $450 each), so roughly $1000 to get it back on the road for another year. Wouldn't matter if I had an EV as EV's are generally heavier than their equivalent non-EV's so still incur the same rego and insurance costs.

This page is a permanent link to the reply below and its nested replies. See all post replies »

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

Prices for the BYD, the Chery and the various known Hybrids are all dropping into the region of the Petrol cars now. While range is still an issue if you want a trip of more than 250Km, we have reached the level where the "second car" or shopping jeep could be replaced by an EV or plug in hybrid when time comes to replace it. This will of course be encouraged where the home has solar panels and a battery. One EV manufacturer is already including a home plug in port with the purchase of a new vehicle. And once thats done, fuel for that car is effectively free, and supply disruption proof.
The one problematic issue we have not seen yet is the issue of the value of the EV car when it comes time to replace it..As of now there is talk of the car having no value to speak of with the Batteries depleted. However, the lithium in the batteries and other precious metals may well be recyclable at prices much higher than they fetch now. We just dont know..😷

zonavar68 · 56-60, M

@whowasthatmaskedman Once the prices are roughly equal there might be an increase, but I can't realistically see EV's totally replacing existing technologies until EV tech matures to make the value proposition significantly in favour of something other than internal combustion engine power for transport equipment (cars/trucks/ships/trains/planes mostly).

At present EV's plus home solar and batteries are still mostly something for the elite. It's creating a very big social 'haves' vs 'have nots' stigma but because I do shiftwork in a 24/7 job where I have to drive to/from work and can't use public transport so EV's aren't really practical.

There's no way to charge EV's at work, and in my personal situation at home the house would need a full wiring upgrade from the street through the meter box to have an EV charger outsideI If I could afford to get solar/batteries it all needs re-configuring anyway.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@zonavar68 I agree with your opening statement. EVs as they are now will never replace the infernal combustion engine. But they will take a portion of the replacement business with the second car or corporate vehicles on short run jobs, like visiting carers in the suburbs or even pizza deliveries. Home storage batteries are currently new. But there is an incentive program in place and it is popular. I expect considerable growth within a couple of years and there may even be a mandate to include a battery and panels for new home builds. Thats the kind of program a government will get behind as a promotion to lower carbon emissions. It wont happen overnight. But it is happening now, as you say with the elite. But thats where it always starts. Then before you know it, everyone wants one. I wouldnt do it myself, because I bought my panels some time ago and deliberately bought enough to chop my power bill to something small, rather than feed power back. I figured the power company would lower the rebate price to next to nothing and they did. But my electricity bill is usually double figures and thats good enough. And I dont plan to buy another car for a decade anyway..😷

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@zonavar68 everyone is missing the economics of innovation. Look at the price of digital tvs. You can now buy huge screen tvs for a fraction of whst they cost 3 years ago. The initial costs took a while to recoup, the same is true for EVs. Only when more are manufactured and sold will the initial costs be covered and then prices should drop.

zonavar68 · 56-60, M

@samueltyler2 Doesn't make them better, or the Great Solution, though. Less and less people overall want EV's and the stats back that up. The fuel issue is just a smokescreen.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@zonavar68 i have to disagree. Look worldwide, EV sales have begun to surpass ICE cars almost everywhere except the US! The US is losing its edge, it has given it up, to other countries who see the future for what it is, because of one person's crazy views of the situation. Once you experience the drive and can afford to buy one, you won't turn back. They are superior in so many ways!

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@samueltyler2 This is also true. If the new sodium batteries become fully commercial in a year (as planned) they alone will cut thousands off the price of an EV..😷

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@whowasthatmaskedman quantity, return on initial investment alone will lower the cost to produce, then it is a matter only of amount of profit desired.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@samueltyler2 The other factor is that china, with centralized government, can afford to connect the political with the economic for long term gain. In this case, keeping profits low, to sell globally cheap and make US manufacturers unprofitable. They dont have to take out all car manufacturers in the US. Just the dinosaurs like GM and Ford. The other repatriate profits out of America anyway.😷

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@whowasthatmaskedman GM and Ford already bowed out from competing. One word from POTUS and they gave up. The infrastructure legislation was successful in helping jump start EVs. Did you ever realize that because the current POTUS has a financial stake in bitcoins and data centers, he has reason to fear the grid being used to charge cars.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@samueltyler2 Yes. They cant compete on EV. and with the tax breaks and subsidies both companies (and lets not forget chrysler) get, I doubt they can show a profit if they had competition. The go to car globally now is the Toyota Camry. And it comes as a petrol or a hybrid. Its just a better car for anything close to the money. And the real problem for america will be when those US plants shut down and all those jobs, go. Along with all the upstream and downstream jobs..😷

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@whowasthatmaskedman the legacy US manufactuters really decided not to produce lower priced vehicles, preferring larger ones with established technology. That has been the case for decades. We had problems getting them to install seatbelts, then many other features, even something so benign as interval wipers was a battle.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@samueltyler2 I am a Capitalist, so let the market decide. Thats fine. But putting a 100% tariff on a car to keep it out of the market only penalises American consumers. Cars are evolving. And Tesla is not yesterdays news. And falling for the same trick of trying to lead the market to what it wants to build. Not listening to what they want..😷

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@whowasthatmaskedman perhaps the greatest success in innovation in the past 3 decades is/was Apple. Did anyone ask them for what they provided?

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@samueltyler2 Point taken.. But they "found a better way". And I say that as a non Apple user. They crossed from a business oriented system to a consumer oriented adventure.. And lets not forget, in the end Bill gates had to bail them out..😷

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@whowasthatmaskedman it would be the same with EVs. No one thought they heeded a Tesla!

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@samueltyler2 True. Musk had THE Innovation idea, then fell into a few of the US bad habits and is now left behind. China "out innovated" him. And for now BYD is the category killer. Give it ten years and it might be someone else with a car that does something we havent thought of yet. Like shrinks to wallet size for parking..😷

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@whowasthatmaskedman actually he did NOT de novo get the idea. He bought it. He adopted a modified Polaroid model. He developed the charging infrastructue, first offering it free, it is now not cheap!

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@samueltyler2 OK.Not his creation. But still something the public liked they hadnt been sold before. In the case of Ford and GM they are telling the US public. "You will continue to buy what we know how to make."😷

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@whowasthatmaskedman there were some early adapters, but not many could afford the cost of his initial offer. He did not turn a profit on that model for many years.