Round 2 preview
Italy vs Wales
Kicking off the weekend, Italy host Wales in Rome. This looks like the battle to avoid the Wooden Spoon – something with which Italy are all too familiar – however, it is Wales who find themselves 19/10 underdogs here. Italy’s recent improvements make them 4/9 for this game and given their three-point victory in the reverse fixture last year, the 10/11 about them to extend that winning margin to over six looks better value as they have the home advantage this time around.
Wales didn’t have it easy in their opener but losing to nil will never be acceptable for a nation with their history. More was expected of scrum-half Tomos Williams, who was given the thankless task of going head-to-head with Antoine Dupont last week. That won’t be the case here and if he can bounce back to the form he’s shown at Gloucester this season, he’s the pick of the bunch for Wales to score anytime at 3/1.
Italy’s standout player in their defeat to Scotland was fly-half Paolo Garbisi, whose boot accounted for 14 of their 19 points. Their only try came via an interception and was really gifted to them by the Scots, making it hard to pick a name to score for them. Instead, it may be wise to expect the Italians to rely more on their kicking than the try line, with under 4.5 match tries decent value at 5/4.
England vs France
One of the most anticipated clashes of the tournament sees England welcome France to Twickenham. England’s head coach, Steve Borthwick, has made significant changes to the lineup, granting fly-half Fin Smith his first start and shifting Marcus Smith to full-back. Last week’s successful first try scorer selection at 12/1, Cadan Murley, misses this one through injury.
France, on the other hand, will start Matthieu Jalibert at fly-half, replacing the suspended Romain Ntamack. Damian Penaud returns to the team, starting on the wing after recovering from a toe injury.
The aforementioned positional change for Marcus Smith will likely be a pivotal factor in this game and one that will excite and scare both sets of fans in equal measure, due to his undeniable attacking talent and obvious defensive frailties. That combination of factors makes the 13/2 on offer for Marcus Smith to score & France to win particularly appealing.
Scotland vs Ireland
Rounding out the weekend, Scotland face Ireland at Murrayfield. Ireland’s first 40 minutes against England confirmed many fans’ suspicions that they’re not operating at the same level they have been for the past few years. Despite that, they still put in a gritty performance and showed that being champions is as much about grinding out a tight win as it is blowing teams away. Scotland were also victorious on the opening weekend, securing a predictable win over Italy in similarly unconvincing fashion.
There’s no doubt Ireland will want to start much faster at Murrayfield than they did at the Aviva, as silencing the home crowd early on would go some way to improving their chances of victory. Ireland to score first can be taken at 4/6, but even if that were the case you wouldn’t count Scotland out of making it a close-fought encounter. That leads us towards the winning margin market, with a tight contest and Ireland to run out eventual winners by 6-10 points a nice price at 9/2.
