538 give England a 26% chance of winning the WC.

I'm stats man so this matters to me. Do you agree/disagree with them?

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-world-cup-predictions/

Top | Newest First | Oldest First

PrincessVelvet · F

What were the chances that Germany wouldn't even make it to the Round of 16? This World Cup has been way too unpredictable to play the odds.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@PrincessVelvet IKR

SageWanderer · 70-79, M

I will say this about England and their chances. First, Pickford is playing like a beast and a hot goalie can carry you far. Second, unlike other teams they are not relying on their star (Harry Kane) to carry the team. And third, unlike other teams they bought in to doing the little things well, like set pieces. So I like the chances at this point and I'd say a little better than 30%.

Nyloncapes · 61-69, M

What has stats got to do with it, it is all on the day 11v 11 anything can happen, what were stats on big f.a.cup shock Wimbledon v Liverpool they got that wrong

Mildreadful · F

Eh sounds about right. They all have about 25% anyway surely, it’s so close

SW-User

Id say thats fair.

InOtterWords · F

Well....they have a 50% chance of being in the final and then a 50% chance of winning the final so that gives it 25%......so 26% seems fair

View 1 more replies »

InOtterWords · F

@Burnley123 i know, mine is very basic. But i keep saying this - the past doesn't matter here, shoukd only look forward. There are 4 teams and we are one of them.

BELIEVE

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@InOtterWords "BELIEVE" is a command of religious faith and an appeal to emotion. I don't have any emotions, other than mild disappointment when an otherwise sound theory becomes invalid.

I believe 26% exactly. No more. No less.

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@InOtterWords I was joking btw. Kind of. 🤣

This comment is hidden. Show Comment

View 7 more replies »

This comment is hidden. Show Comment

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@LvChris I don't think we are 14% better. 538 have us at 9% better and perhaps even that is an exaggeration.

One of their criteria for rating teams is transfermarkt.com, which values players and teams in terms of transfer fee.

We have a younger team than Croatia (which means higher transfer fee value) and also the Premier-league distorts the market for English players because our domestic league happens to be the richest in the world. I think these are slight flaws in the 538 methodology, which is otherwise fairly sound. I think the teams are evenly matched but with different strengths. I hope you are correct though obvs.

This comment is hidden. Show Comment

Add a comment...