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Northwest Meanwhile it will kill export . In 2024, the United States was a significant exporter of copper articles, with a total export value of $12.2 billion, making it the 25th most exported product. The primary destinations for these exports were Mexico, China, Canada, Malaysia, and Thailand. The fastest growing markets for US copper article exports were China, Canada, and Mexico. In addition to finished copper articles, the US also exports significant amounts of copper scrap and ores. Chile, Canada and Peru accounted for more than 90% of refined copper imports last year, according to the United States Geological Survey (USGS).The US produces around 5% of global copper mining output. Its reserves are also at around 5% of the total, according to the US Geological Survey. The US is the world’s largest exporter of copper scrap and also an exporter of copper ore, known as concentrates. However, a lack of sufficient domestic processing capacity means it is also a significant importer of refined copper metal.Any serious curbs on US scrap supplies would redraw the market for scrap, which accounts for almost a third of copper supply. US shipments of waste copper were about 600,000 tons last year, according to research from Citigroup Inc. — an amount equivalent to some of the world’s largest copper mines. More than half of that goes directly to China for processing. In 2024, 48% of Canadian scrap exports were destined for the USA. Tariffs of 50% would end this trade, forcing mills to send these volumes to China or Europe if this were economic.In the case of Mexico, 33% of its copper scrap exports went to the USA last year, a significant contribution to America’s ability to decarbonise and save energy by utilising secondary raw materials instead of primary sources. This scrap could be sent to China but consider the carbon footprint of shipping it across the Pacific Ocean? Mexico’s key role as a supplier of copper to the USA is in the form of auto parts, particularly wiring harnesses, and electric motors. 99% of its auto wiring harness exports are to the USA, (220kt copper content last year). Wiring harness assembly is labour intensive, and this supports tens of thousands of jobs, mainly for women, in Mexico. The president of Sumitomo Electric Industries (SEI), Mr Osamu Inoue, said that the USA would be ‘strangling itself’ if it applied 50% tariffs to harnesses assembled in Mexico. SEI would then relocate all its output to Central America, the Philippines and Vietnam, where labour costs are far lower, and where it would only pay a 5%??? tariff to export to the USA. However, lengthy trans-pacific supply chains are vulnerable to disruption and delays. Much of the copper wire and connectors used in these harnesses are exported from the USA to Mexico, so this tonnage would be lost to Asian consumers, the reverse of the stated objective.China’s main exports to the USA are in the form of insulated wire and cable, electric motors, brass parts, and home appliances, such as air conditioners, fridges, and freezers. In aggregate this amounts to a considerable volume of contained copper. A 10% tariff may not be sufficient to deter such trade, or if does, China will redirect these products to other markets in the Americas, Europe, and Asia, at little cost to itself. In the short term, this could further dampen Chinese copper consumption prospects. Jefferies analysts estimate it would take at least a decade to develop sufficient mining and smelting infrastructure for the US to reach self-sufficiency.Chile and Mexico, both large copper exporters, initially saw their currencies strengthen on the news. The longer-term implications are more nuanced. Reduced volumes and lower margins could depress producer surpluses and result in job losses in mining-intensive regions.
China, the world’s largest copper consumer, is likely to gain competitively from the re-routing of global supply chains away from the US. Having significantly expanded its domestic smelting capacity over the last two decades, Beijing may be able to absorb diverted shipments at favorable prices, reinforcing its industrial base at a time of intensifying strategic competition with Washington, DC.COMEX copper prices spiked as traders rushed to lock in supply before the tariff took effect, anticipating sharply higher domestic prices. Meanwhile, copper futures prices in Shanghai declined, with copper originally destined for the US redirected into global markets. Chinese industrial enterprises are now able to buy more copper at lower prices.Beyond that, the move undermines Trump’s own stated objectives: reviving US manufacturing and countering Chinese influence. Driving up domestic prices, shifting investment overseas, and handing other nations — the BRICS+ bloc, in particular — a golden opportunity to ramp up their dominance in global manufacturing. Copper wires the world, and voluntarily severing the US from global copper markets is a costly and self-defeating proposition.Tariffs of this magnitude on a non-substitutable, industrially critical input like copper are, in a word, reckless. By imposing a blanket 50 percent duty without a clear timeline, scope, or even carve-outs for allied nations, the administration risks weakening US competitiveness, bolstering competitors, and damaging long-standing trade relationships. Since President Donald Trump opened an investigation into possible tariffs on imports of copper in February, U.S. firms have been stocking up on the metal.
