16 Nobel Prize-winning economists say Trump policies will fuel inflation

Goldman Sachs analysis: U.S. economy would be better under Harris than Trump Sep. 04, 2024

“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse,” the economists wrote, according to reports.

Bloomberg and Reuters reported on the note. Spectrum News has requested a copy of the note from Goldman Sachs.

Trump, the former president and Republican nominee this year, has not released a detailed economic plan but has repeatedly vowed to raise tariffs — including to a baseline of at least 10% on all imports and at least 60% on Chinese goods — extend the 2017 tax cuts, further reduce the corporate tax rate and clamp down on illegal migration.

The Goldman economists say the increased tariffs on cars from China, Mexico and the European Union would raise core inflation.

Harris says she wants to increase taxes on Americans earning more than $400,000 a year and corporations, and cut taxes for the middle class.

If she wins and Democrats sweep Congress, “new spending and expanded middle-income tax credits would slightly more than offset lower investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP investment due to higher corporate tax rates, resulting in a very slight boost to GDP growth on average over 2025-2026,” the analysis said.

The economists predicted a Harris victory would lead to 10,000 more new jobs per month than if Trump is elected in a divided government — and 30,000 more than if Trump wins and the GOP controls the Senate and House.