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"Chuck it in the fire". What are the economic consequences if America dishonors the national debt, like France is planning?



Photo above - a 100 quintillion banknote (a 1 with 20 zeroes after it), issued by the government of Hungary in 1946, after socialists and communists seized power.

Your personal share of the $40 trillion US national debt is $100,000. Make that $350,000 if you’re the sole breadwinner for an average family. When and how do you plan to repay? Maybe this is why we can't afford to buy houses?

Socialist pundits in America have been claiming there's an easy solution – just double the taxes on corporations. Unfortunately, companies probably would just jack up prices to cover this tax hike, leaving us holding the bag. Or relocate overseas, to places like Europe, where corporate taxes are already much lower.

Will 2028 progressive candidates in America try to pull the same stunt France is considering? Just cancel the national debt. Stop repaying it. Will this mean there's a bunch of extra money for things like welfare, free healthcare, government-built housing, free bus/subway/train fare, subsidized supermarkets, and free college for everyone?

France is the canary in the coal mine. If they get away with their cute little debt cancellation scheme, this will be a realtime experiment to see if nations get punished for refusing to repay their debts. Punished with ungodly high interest rates, or a complete lack of borrowing ability, or hyperinflation, or all 3 at once. The outcome should probably inform America on how to choose our own 2028 candidates.

It’s unclear if US politicians – either democratic socialists of America, republicans, democrats, or libertarians – have any understanding of the economics. The consequences refusing to repay US treasury bonds. Bondholders include US banks, US citizens like you and me, nations like Saudi Arabia and China. Stop cheering - it’s okay to hate Saudi Arabia and China, but not to simply repudiate all our global monetary obligations overnight.

Cancelling the national debt doesn’t unleash a bunch of money for new spending. We’re already spending trillions more each year than we collect in taxes. The most likely outcome of debt repudiation is that there will be interest rates so high that NOBODY can get a mortgage. And draconian US budget cuts because nobody will buy US treasury bills again in our lifetime.

Federal budget cuts likely mean massive unemployment, hunger, and homelessness, in case we haven’t thought that far ahead. France clearly hasn’t.

The French presidential candidate drawing so much attention is Jean-Luc Melenchon, former communist party member and 3-time socialist presidential candidate. Don’t laugh – he unexpectedly came in in 2022..

Imagine the attention certain American politicians are giving France right now. NYC mayor Mamdani. BA in “African Studies”, socialist, and former rapper. Democratic Socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC). Socialist without adjectives Bernie Sanders. Politicians who might say anything to get elected. Look at how this worked for Trump.

We know how NYC recently voted. This was in part a reaction to an economy that doesn't work for millions. How will nervous voters across the nation pull the lever during the next presidential election?

If you want to buy a house, get a credit card, or already have a 401K account, the outcome might matter to you.

I’m just sayin’ . . .



'Chuck it in the fire.' A leading candidate in France’s presidential race has a simple solution to its massive national debt: just cancel it
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yeah, the copier paper you have in your printer will be worth more than the currency.
swirlie · 31-35, F
If the US cancels their national debt, the US dollar will plummet to zero-worth.

That said, it will be the countries in addition to private investors that hold US treasure bills who will be left holding the bag, which means those investors will be the losers. That is why anyone who currently holds US treasure bills should be dumping them as fast as they can and while they still can still cash-out their investment in a rapidly devaluing, rapidly failing US currency.
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SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@swirlie where would you put the money after selling T bills? The stock market? Gold? Bitcoin?
swirlie · 31-35, F
@SusanInFlorida
I wasn't talking about selling T bills. I was talking about selling US bonds.

Bonds are long-term investments whereas T-bills are short term investments.

The problem with T-bills is that quite often T-bills will suffer a massive sell-off if the bond market is perceived to be in 'crash' mode. As bonds begin their sell-off, T-bills are sometimes sold off at the same time if little to no confidence is being held with that particular country.

That is what happened to the US bond market shortly after Trump 2.0 came into existence. The bond market started to crash, while simultaneously the T-bill market was also crashing.

This meant there was nowhere for institutional investors to park their money because total lack of confidence was overshadowing the Trump Administration as the bond/T-bill market crashed.

When that actually happened, it was China who simultaneously sold US bonds and US T-bills in an effort to undermine the US government.
SunshineGirl · 41-45, F
Well, for those who continue to insist that states can go bankrupt (they can't), this sort of makes sense.

Melenchon actually proposed cancelling debt held by the central bank (around 18% of the national debt). Yes, France would save interest payments, but it would also lose the profits that the Bank of France pays back to the Treasury. So the net impact would theoretically be zero, but yields on remaining debt would be likely to increase as investors lose confidence.
SunshineGirl · 41-45, F
@SusanInFlorida (1) Spending cuts; (2) Tax rises; (3) Central bank printing more money.

What an indebted state will almost never receive is debt forgiveness and blanket indemnity from its creditors (which is what happens in a bankruptcy).
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@SunshineGirl i can't think of an era when central banks - in any nation - did NOT print more money. they're all devaluaing/debasing their currency to make repayment of national debt less painful
SunshineGirl · 41-45, F
@SusanInFlorida That is what central banks are there to do. Modern currencies have no intrinsic value. Their strength lies in the ability of government to effectively regulate the money supply through quantitative easing (printing more money), setting interest rates, and taxation. Consider for one moment how strong your currency would be if the drawbridges had been raised in 2020.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
For France this would be a disaster within the EU..But there is a good chance the EU would rally round for solidarity and work out a package to rescue it. If America pulled the same trick that would instantly go Global. The $US would be replaced as the reserve currency withing weeks. And America would need to find an alternative to $US to buy and pay for all imports. And frankly America would be friendless for people to consider any kind of rescue. Even the Saudis would turn their backs.
So thing would be dire for all but the very rich withing months.. On the up side. All those drug lords with shipping containers full of $US would have no more real value than Confederate greybacks and the War on Drugs in America may finally be won as no one had any money to pay for them..😷
swirlie · 31-35, F
@whowasthatmaskedman

Which country owns the most oil and the most abundant supply of natural resources and rare earth minerals which the rest of the world wants and needs in a very big way?

I think that particular country will be the Leader of the world's trade and commerce policy, hence the country which dictates what the World Trade currency's name will be.

I wonder which country that could be? 🤔
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@swirlie I wonder..... I hope they are nice people.. Mind you. we do pretty well ourselves and have no land border neighbours to drag the land values down..😷
swirlie · 31-35, F
@whowasthatmaskedman
...true, no neighbor's barking dogs either. You raise a good point.
wildbill83 · 41-45, M
being that around 60% of France's debt is owned by foreign investors, it would be literal suicide for them. Financial Institutions/banks, etc. would essentially red flag them and refuse to deal with them; defense contractors, companies, etc. dealing with them would jack up their interest rates to unheard of levels; and I'd imagine that any country that took a significant loss as a result would tariff the shit out of anything coming out of France (not to mention raise shipping/docking fees for anything originating in France)

They'd become a 3rd world country overnight....
SunshineGirl · 41-45, F
@wildbill83 He should not be there in the first place. If you break into someone else's home, don't be surprised if they retaliate by slashing your tyres.
wildbill83 · 41-45, M
@SunshineGirl so everyone should just stop using strait of hormuz because it's "Iran's home"? 🤔
wildbill83 · 41-45, M
or perhaps the goat fuckers could quit attacking Israel and threating to blow everyone up and behave like rational people, and we might leave them alone... 🤔
Khenpal1 · M
Trump is attempting to devaluate dollar
SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@Khenpal1 that's been the program of every president in my lifetime. make payments on the national debt with cheaper./ post inflation dollars.
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SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F
@jshm2 hungary escaped from the soviet union and instituted a market based economy. The joined the european union for currency stability
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FloorGenAdm · 51-55, M
[media=https://youtu.be/-2QAu3V-gec]
LILPapi69 · 46-50, M
[media=https://youtu.be/7O1Jngb9mVw?is=wFYytxDJpwarxsiX]

 
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