America can't win this war.
Yes, it has the world's most powerful military, but it can't achieve regime change in Iran. Yes, Iran is taking a pounding, and its people are suffering, but the regime can take a pounding, and its people can endure suffering. The Islamic Republic was born out of violent revolution and went straight into an eight-year war with Iraq. It survived. Its survived sanctions, air strikes, the Arab Spring and other uprisings. In history, no regime change has ever been achieved by a bombing campaign, and a full-scale invasion would be a military and logistical nightmare.
For all Trump and Hegseth's bullshitting and bragging, there is no sign that either the Iranian people are about to rise up against the government or that the Iranian state is about to collapse. Yes, Israel is ruthless and efficient at taking out leaders, but new leaders can always be found. In anticipation of the war, Iran had a plan to decentralise command and have regional militaries act with autonomy. It's a country of ninety million people and a 'decapitation strategy' doesn't work on a hydra.
Entirely predictably, the people of an invaded country rally around the government and the flag when faced with a foreign aggressor. There might be dissenters in Iran but there is no serious opposition political force in a position to take over, and the Islamic Republic controls every aspect of the state on a local and regional level. The Kurds are a force on the margins. If you were an Iranian who rose up against the government, would you trust Trump and Netanyahu to have your back? Israel is committing a still ongoing genocide in Gaza and wants to make Iran a failed state.
Iran also has tremendous leverage now that they have effective control over the Strait of Hormuz. They can manufacture drones in small, hidden factories and launch them from a multitude of areas. However many you kill, there will always be more. In addition, I would expect the Houtis to enter the war at some stage and further block oil passages.
Obviously, Iran is outgunned in conventional terms, and they know that, which is why their strategy is about asymmetric war and horizontal escalation. The Gulf States are aki a target-rich environment. Within their own limited war aim (regime survival), they are winning this war, and America is losing.
This war is an absolute disaster. It's a humanitarian disaster for Iranians, a political disaster for the region and an economic disaster for the world. It happened because Netanyahu wanted to destroy Iran so it could create a greater Israel. Trump went along with it because either because he is a gullible moron or is being blackmailed *or both. We can only pray that someone in the US administration pulls the plug, and this does not escalate to ground troops or tactical nukes.
For all Trump and Hegseth's bullshitting and bragging, there is no sign that either the Iranian people are about to rise up against the government or that the Iranian state is about to collapse. Yes, Israel is ruthless and efficient at taking out leaders, but new leaders can always be found. In anticipation of the war, Iran had a plan to decentralise command and have regional militaries act with autonomy. It's a country of ninety million people and a 'decapitation strategy' doesn't work on a hydra.
Entirely predictably, the people of an invaded country rally around the government and the flag when faced with a foreign aggressor. There might be dissenters in Iran but there is no serious opposition political force in a position to take over, and the Islamic Republic controls every aspect of the state on a local and regional level. The Kurds are a force on the margins. If you were an Iranian who rose up against the government, would you trust Trump and Netanyahu to have your back? Israel is committing a still ongoing genocide in Gaza and wants to make Iran a failed state.
Iran also has tremendous leverage now that they have effective control over the Strait of Hormuz. They can manufacture drones in small, hidden factories and launch them from a multitude of areas. However many you kill, there will always be more. In addition, I would expect the Houtis to enter the war at some stage and further block oil passages.
Obviously, Iran is outgunned in conventional terms, and they know that, which is why their strategy is about asymmetric war and horizontal escalation. The Gulf States are aki a target-rich environment. Within their own limited war aim (regime survival), they are winning this war, and America is losing.
This war is an absolute disaster. It's a humanitarian disaster for Iranians, a political disaster for the region and an economic disaster for the world. It happened because Netanyahu wanted to destroy Iran so it could create a greater Israel. Trump went along with it because either because he is a gullible moron or is being blackmailed *or both. We can only pray that someone in the US administration pulls the plug, and this does not escalate to ground troops or tactical nukes.
41-45, M
