Trump tariffs and deregulation give June its first budget surplus in 20 years
For the first time since 2005, the federal budget posted a surplus this June, and Uncle Sam has President Donald Trump‘s tariffs at least partially to thank.
The budget surplus of $26 billion is essentially a rounding error relative to our current annual deficit of $1.3 trillion for the first nine months of fiscal 2025. But the Congressional Budget Office data is still evidence that, on the margins, Trump’s cost-cutting measures at the Department of Government Efficiency, his tariffs, and real wage growth unleashed by his deregulatory agenda are indeed trimming the trajectory of our debt growth every so slightly. All in all, the deficit thus far in fiscal 2025 is 1% smaller than the first nine months of fiscal 2024.
The 1.2% increase in real wages since Trump took office has translated to a 7% increase in total individual income and payroll tax revenue compared to the year prior. Customs duties collections are up 89% for the fiscal year, but a staggering 279% from just June 2025 compared to the June prior.
The budget surplus of $26 billion is essentially a rounding error relative to our current annual deficit of $1.3 trillion for the first nine months of fiscal 2025. But the Congressional Budget Office data is still evidence that, on the margins, Trump’s cost-cutting measures at the Department of Government Efficiency, his tariffs, and real wage growth unleashed by his deregulatory agenda are indeed trimming the trajectory of our debt growth every so slightly. All in all, the deficit thus far in fiscal 2025 is 1% smaller than the first nine months of fiscal 2024.
The 1.2% increase in real wages since Trump took office has translated to a 7% increase in total individual income and payroll tax revenue compared to the year prior. Customs duties collections are up 89% for the fiscal year, but a staggering 279% from just June 2025 compared to the June prior.
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