First and foremost, I would say that I wish for the Iranian people to be able to live their lives in peace. Unfortunately, as a result of Israel, those people are no longer able to do that.
I think Trump has massive political incentive to make tactical strikes against Iran. For one, the Iranian government is openly hostile towards the US. Secondly, they are a strategic ally of China. Thirdly, even if Iran does not currently possess or are testing nukes, thanks to Netanyahu they now have every reason they need to develop them.
With a couple of well-coordinated strikes on military bases or nuclear testing sites, the US has the potential to wipe out a threat and topple an adversarial regime. He can claim credit for making the world a safer place and putting a dent into China's hegemony.
The downsides would be if he fails to hit the right targets or causes civilian casualties, it's going to needlessly escalate Iran's aggression and potentially harm US citizens and soldiers overseas.
Personally, I think for Trump, the reward outweighs the risk. He has been willing in the past to make strikes against the Iranian regime, and I highly doubt he's changed his attitude towards them in his second term. By him calling for unconditional surrender to the rest of the world, he will eventually justify his strikes against Iran as necessary since they chose to ignore him
