Lessons for the Democratic Party.
There's a dangerous illusion growing in the minds of many self-identified progressives within the Democratic Party. They feel like they’re the genuine base of the party, they’re the grassroots, the activists, the most educated, informed and moral voters of the blue coalition. Even if that were so, it really doesn’t matter.
Now, one can blame a great many things for that but it’s one of the harsh political realities pragmatic political operatives have to grapple with.
Take the Senate map. Not only does the Senate structurally favor the Republicans (as is well-known), the map for 2026* will be a particular uphill battle for the Democrats. They have fewer options to pick up seats in competitive states than the GOP does and all the competitive states are purple or red. So to have any chance of winning the Senate, Democrats need to shift their core message to the right, nationally, and reconfigure their policy agenda accordingly.
As for the House, things might look better at first glance. Readers may remember the blue wave in 2018 and say to themselves, we can replicate it with enough progressive energy, after all, many people had enough of Trump two years into his first Presidency.
It was a House election won despite the leftward shift of the Democratic Party, which might’ve indicated that the country was also trending leftward. Well, as it turns out, that’s simply not the case. It was a more or less usual anti-incumbency reaction. Obama had to deal with it on an even bigger scale in 2010. And the resistance to Trump fused with the larger cultural battle. In 2018, it seemed like “wokeness” was a winner, yet as the identity politics on the left turned increasingly illiberal and navigated its way outside of the political mainstream, “wokeness“ became a liability.
In a way, the Republican victory in 2024 was the victory of the counter-culture. And that’s critical to understand. It doesn’t mean Americans no longer care about homosexual rights, celebrate instances of police brutality, deny the dark chapters of American history or want transgender individuals to be thrown under the bus. Clearly, a critical mass of the electorate (the MAGA base) are on board with that, but not the broader electorate.
So make no mistake, reactionary social policies won’t be an asset for the GOP, but a liability. That being said, the 2024 election was, among other things, a reaction to what many Americans considered a cultural dynamic out of touch with their personal values. It’s reminiscent of Nixon’s victory in 1972 in that sense.
One of the key reasons Republicans won is that many Americans didn't view them as the extremists on social and cultural issues - rather, they saw the Democrats as the more extreme. Anti-semitism on the campuses, the perceived censorship of undesirable opinions (cancel culture), an attempted political modification of the English language itself, the proliferation of public unisex bathrooms, illegal immigration, green energy policies, certain trans-issues and even positions on abortion made Republicans seem more moderate and driven by common sense in the eyes of the median American voter.
The Republican Party successfully claimed the issue of free speech and managed to turn itself into the more moderate national party on abortion as the Democrats reflexively defended Roe v. Wade with no caveats even though many Americans didn’t mind limited and judicious restrictions on abortions.
In other words, Republicans weren't seen as moderate on abortion by many swing voters, not because conservative states eased the fears of median voters, but because swing voters largely lived in states where reproductive rights seemed secure—and because Trump wasn’t Mike Huckabee. He‘s not a religious or social conservative. His cultural war is much more secular and materialistic in a way that appeals to many Americans, even former Democrats. Instead of discussing an abortion ban, Congressional Republicans are focused on infighting over cuts to federal funding for Planned Parenthood.
Therefore, few Americans who weren’t already planning to vote blue were seriously concerned about a national abortion ban.
Winning on abortion won’t be possible for Democrats unless Trump starts to seriously entertain the idea of a ban. So the only social issue that’s potentially favorable to the Democrats and also relevant - as far as electoral politics is concerned - won’t be their path to victory.
Economically, their campaign writes itself. They need to oppose protectionism - which means fighting both MAGA and the progressive caucus on the merits of the issue. They need to highlight the importance of hardworking undocumented immigrants to the US economy as they’re being increasingly deported by the administration. They have to pound the administration on the growing national debt as a consequence of Republican tax cuts (which means embracing fiscal discipline - another progressive weakness) and they have to highlight the regressive nature of the planned reconciliation bill. They mustn’t attack tax cuts writ large, many of the middle-class and upper-class swing voters they‘ll depend on will be net beneficiaries of the extension of TCJA.
Finally, they should run against the Republican Medicaid reform. Ironically, I support a drastic reform of Medicaid to reduce the program‘s costs but the median voter does not so the Democrats will be in an excellent position to oppose the the reform and it’ll be a unifying position among the more center-left and the left wing of the party.
Lastly, Democrats have to reclaim freedom as a political message. The Trump administration is attacking the liberal constitutional order with one broadside after another, going after universities, the free press, the rule of law, his political enemies, immigrants, concentrating massive powers within the executive branch and neutralizing one independent government institution after another. He‘s pardoned enemies of the United States (the J6ers) and he will continue to undermine the constitutional order in the US as time progresses.
If democracy wasn’t a strong enough rallying cry in 2024 because many Americans couldn’t recognize the danger Trump posed - and many genuinely couldn’t - that denial will become harder to maintain as new authoritarian actions, illegal executive orders, presidential memoranda, and statements emerge by the day.
Now, one can blame a great many things for that but it’s one of the harsh political realities pragmatic political operatives have to grapple with.
Take the Senate map. Not only does the Senate structurally favor the Republicans (as is well-known), the map for 2026* will be a particular uphill battle for the Democrats. They have fewer options to pick up seats in competitive states than the GOP does and all the competitive states are purple or red. So to have any chance of winning the Senate, Democrats need to shift their core message to the right, nationally, and reconfigure their policy agenda accordingly.
As for the House, things might look better at first glance. Readers may remember the blue wave in 2018 and say to themselves, we can replicate it with enough progressive energy, after all, many people had enough of Trump two years into his first Presidency.
It was a House election won despite the leftward shift of the Democratic Party, which might’ve indicated that the country was also trending leftward. Well, as it turns out, that’s simply not the case. It was a more or less usual anti-incumbency reaction. Obama had to deal with it on an even bigger scale in 2010. And the resistance to Trump fused with the larger cultural battle. In 2018, it seemed like “wokeness” was a winner, yet as the identity politics on the left turned increasingly illiberal and navigated its way outside of the political mainstream, “wokeness“ became a liability.
In a way, the Republican victory in 2024 was the victory of the counter-culture. And that’s critical to understand. It doesn’t mean Americans no longer care about homosexual rights, celebrate instances of police brutality, deny the dark chapters of American history or want transgender individuals to be thrown under the bus. Clearly, a critical mass of the electorate (the MAGA base) are on board with that, but not the broader electorate.
So make no mistake, reactionary social policies won’t be an asset for the GOP, but a liability. That being said, the 2024 election was, among other things, a reaction to what many Americans considered a cultural dynamic out of touch with their personal values. It’s reminiscent of Nixon’s victory in 1972 in that sense.
One of the key reasons Republicans won is that many Americans didn't view them as the extremists on social and cultural issues - rather, they saw the Democrats as the more extreme. Anti-semitism on the campuses, the perceived censorship of undesirable opinions (cancel culture), an attempted political modification of the English language itself, the proliferation of public unisex bathrooms, illegal immigration, green energy policies, certain trans-issues and even positions on abortion made Republicans seem more moderate and driven by common sense in the eyes of the median American voter.
The Republican Party successfully claimed the issue of free speech and managed to turn itself into the more moderate national party on abortion as the Democrats reflexively defended Roe v. Wade with no caveats even though many Americans didn’t mind limited and judicious restrictions on abortions.
In other words, Republicans weren't seen as moderate on abortion by many swing voters, not because conservative states eased the fears of median voters, but because swing voters largely lived in states where reproductive rights seemed secure—and because Trump wasn’t Mike Huckabee. He‘s not a religious or social conservative. His cultural war is much more secular and materialistic in a way that appeals to many Americans, even former Democrats. Instead of discussing an abortion ban, Congressional Republicans are focused on infighting over cuts to federal funding for Planned Parenthood.
Therefore, few Americans who weren’t already planning to vote blue were seriously concerned about a national abortion ban.
Winning on abortion won’t be possible for Democrats unless Trump starts to seriously entertain the idea of a ban. So the only social issue that’s potentially favorable to the Democrats and also relevant - as far as electoral politics is concerned - won’t be their path to victory.
Economically, their campaign writes itself. They need to oppose protectionism - which means fighting both MAGA and the progressive caucus on the merits of the issue. They need to highlight the importance of hardworking undocumented immigrants to the US economy as they’re being increasingly deported by the administration. They have to pound the administration on the growing national debt as a consequence of Republican tax cuts (which means embracing fiscal discipline - another progressive weakness) and they have to highlight the regressive nature of the planned reconciliation bill. They mustn’t attack tax cuts writ large, many of the middle-class and upper-class swing voters they‘ll depend on will be net beneficiaries of the extension of TCJA.
Finally, they should run against the Republican Medicaid reform. Ironically, I support a drastic reform of Medicaid to reduce the program‘s costs but the median voter does not so the Democrats will be in an excellent position to oppose the the reform and it’ll be a unifying position among the more center-left and the left wing of the party.
Lastly, Democrats have to reclaim freedom as a political message. The Trump administration is attacking the liberal constitutional order with one broadside after another, going after universities, the free press, the rule of law, his political enemies, immigrants, concentrating massive powers within the executive branch and neutralizing one independent government institution after another. He‘s pardoned enemies of the United States (the J6ers) and he will continue to undermine the constitutional order in the US as time progresses.
If democracy wasn’t a strong enough rallying cry in 2024 because many Americans couldn’t recognize the danger Trump posed - and many genuinely couldn’t - that denial will become harder to maintain as new authoritarian actions, illegal executive orders, presidential memoranda, and statements emerge by the day.
