The UN Population Division report of 2022 projects world population to continue growing after 2050, although at a steadily decreasing rate, to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086, and then to start a slow decline to about 10.3 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of -0.1%.
This estinmate is dropping almost every year. If the worlds population growth goes into reverse
How will we cope with a shrinking workforce, an aging population, and potential economic challenges, but also potentially lower resource consumption and environmental impact
By 2050 the predictiion is that the world s population will be 25% larger but stable - however there are massive error bars on this. By 2050 with birth rates falling and losses due to famine, wars, natural disasters, and new diseases many predict we will be seeing an aging population and the problems that entails. With global warming certain parts of the world could become unithabitable and we are already seeing migrations to cooler climates. A more obvous problem is a rising sea level coud swamp most of our major cities world wide. 33% of the worlds population live below 50 feet above sea level. If the Grenland ice cap were to melt that would raise water height 25 feet. No one is anticipating this but monitors of glacier movements show alarming accelaration. This probably isnt my problem but it probably is yours. What should we do right now ?
@Captain people simply aren't responsible or realistic, caring for the population seems not to be an ethical imperative to them - that's easy to explain,! Conservative politics. Their hopes and aspirations are evil, because they are. It's cultural.
@Roundandroundwego But wasnt there a once upon a time when people did care about each other - about their neighbours. My sister uxed to live in a lesser part of Chesterfield and she couldnt speak more highly of the community spirit and how others would look after her, but they were in a poor area - is that the answer. Poorer and less materialistic people are actually more generous because hey have less to protect ??
@Captain I lived in that kind of time and also in very difficult times and places. The people in a position to create and design our reality and our politics - our desires, aspirations and lifestyle - were always ready to answer my questions about why? - "Because when people are absorbed in putting food on the table you can really make a killing and they're not killing you." And, "Because somebody always destroys everything and takes over as owners - that's what people do." It's the same mentality now, throughout the working class and its owners.
I’ve heard 9 billion is the ideal population but only if there is a good distribution of ages and most importantly, everyone has access to renewable energy and clean water and good technology.
The cause is urbanization. It's going to be interesting, as the human population hasn't leveled off since before the invention of agriculture. All societies have been built on the assumption of a demographic pyramid with lots of young people working and supporting a small number of old people. When that reverses, we'll be in uncharted territory. This will happen sooner in some places than others. Japan and South Korea will be good examples as their birth rates are among the lowest in the world, and they're not postponing the demographic time bomb with immigration the way the US and Europe are. How they handle this will be instructive for everyone else.
@LeopoldBloom But I think the bit of your model you havent talked aboutis that shrnking populaiton normally means shrinking consumption and economic contraction, wjhich delays purchaes etc etc - a life long economic depression - a situation in which I htink the modern democracies collapse. Lets see how it shapes up.
Japan and South Korea are on the leading edge with some of the lowest birth rates in the world. They also discourage immigration. So how they deal with the coming demographic changes will be interesting.
@KiwiBird Hi Just looked it up (keep forgettng how easy that is). THis is what AI said :-
China's birth rate, which hit a record low of 6.39 births per 1,000 people in 2023, saw a slight increase to 6.77 in 2024, but the death rate remained higher, leading to a negative natural population growth rate. Here's a more detailed breakdown: 2024 Birth Rate: 6.77 births per 1,000 people. 2023 Birth Rate: 6.39 births per 1,000 people. 2024 Births: 9.54 million. 2023 Births: 9.02 million. 2024 Deaths: 10.93 million. 2024 Mortality Rate: 7.76 per thousand. 2024 Natural Population Growth Rate: Negative, at 0.99 per thousand.
So meybe the effect of the 1 child rule is just starting to wear off...
@LeopoldBloom China was a subject I specifcally checks and they are showing slight increase in the last year but way below 2 births per female - and remember that during the 1 child days a lot of females were misisn gform the records (assumed aborted), In a recession depression environment many more people will probablly just opt not to have children.
There will be a significant decline in the population once the arguments over resources turn nasty. Don’t expect too much support in old age in the west.
I'll be dead if a population catastrophe happens in 10 years or so. I feel it most for the generations to come. We will all face the increasing possibility of WW3 happening at any time now. Anyway, I am ready when my time comes. I have led a good life so far.
@caesar7 I recommend Sapiens as a good read. I recommended you read at least 1 Thomas Hardy book with annotated historical notes in it so you can see how hes drawing on real historical background. And I recommend yiu read the bizarre claims of the alleged survivor Al Bielek of the alleged Phildephia experiment "myth" not because I champion it as truth for one minute, but becaus eif its a lie, I think its a brilliantly constructed and very clever lie. The more I know about the Wheeler single electron universe theory (Wheeler was Feynman's early mentor and I think of Feyman as the greatest physicist and one of hte greatest teachers of all time - much overlooked in a world dominated by the particle physics. i find the particle physics view of the universe view as a semiicductr engineer and plastics optics expert I now find exteremly blinkered and darn right misleading. Wheelers single electron theory of the universe takes away the arrow of time which becomes just a human viewpoint of a symmetric system in which matter "moves" forewards in time but "antimatter" is movng backwards in time - so changing your future would leading to changing your past. So it supports that bizarre statement in the old Testamanet about God knwing everything about your future and yiour past and yet the bible saying you have free will to exercise to which will change not just your future and therefore your past but also that oif the entire universe slightly, I like it because its simple, and expalins all the observed facts including that the universe has been expanding but is now inflating, where the antimatter has gone (because thge positron being the lecton moving backwards through time would imply all antimatter is just matter moving throiugh time an could demostarte anti gravity) and where al the antimatter has gone and the filament structure of hte universe. These ar ethe biggest mysteries physicists are strugling with now and Wheeler's old theory can explan them all.
@helenS research shows that infant mortality rate is the biggest issue - if you no longer need an heir and a spare you dont get the spare. Cointarception availability may be a afctor and financial ambition may be a factor. The decline in religious beliefs may also be a factor.
Studies suggest a global decline in male sperm counts, with some research indicating a decrease of over 50% in the past 50 years, potentially linked to environmental factors, lifestyle choices, and industrialization.
Unhealthy lifestyle choices, such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, drug use, obesity, and prolonged exposure to heat, can negatively impact sperm count and quality, potentially leading to male infertility.
Interesting - the good news is guys it does seem to be plateauing at 50%.
@Captain In 2025, there are six countries, all in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the average woman of childbearing age can expect to have between 5-6 children throughout their lifetime. In fact, of the 20 countries in the world with the highest fertility rates, Afghanistan and Yemen are the only countries not found in Sub-Saharan Africa. With a fertility rate of almost six children per woman, Chad is the country with the highest fertility rate in the world. Population growth in Chad is among the highest in the world. Lack of healthcare access, as well as food instability, political instability, and climate change, are all exacerbating conditions that keep Chad's infant mortality rates high, which is generally the driver behind high fertility rates. (source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/262884/countries-with-the-highest-fertility-rates/)
@helenS Yep I knew that one - poverty and high infant mortality breeds babies -about as counter intuitive as you could imagine if you were an alien but exactly what you'd expect if yu were familiar with human society.
@wildbill83 The estimate is 11000 deaths form inoculation - a more sensible question would be how many extra deaths due to covid.The answer is 67 million so less than 1% of the worlds population.
@MasterLee Erm OK I googled Bill Gates and covid and I found s lot of articles saying he expected 10 million deaths - but didnt bother going beyond the first page because I thoght its easier just.to ask you what you meant ?
@Captain I hope I'm not too heretical, but liberal democracies with a socially conscious capitalism have had low birth rates, high income, well-educated people for a long time.
@helenS Yes but as others have stated high levels of immigration and I think this works a bit like the Roman Empire, you come in a slave and by the time a few more bunches of slaves come in your either not a slave or dead, so the system sort of builds itself - and that's my concern, its still reliant on new people to fuel it - born or immgrated .
@OriginalDumbMan And I think this time it is different because AI can do things like group think and parse documents for data. There are far less things it cant do.
@jshm2 The money that the super wealthy have really doesnt count because they are never going to spend it are they.That's one of the daftest things about our system. Its the poorest that matter most because their money has the greatest veloocity and ther are so many of them
@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow I think the point about it takes a generation is almost a given isnt it but yes studies seem to show it takes about a generation of new migrants to adapt to the norms of th country ie once they are not migrants.
@Captain In alot of cases it is not about cultural norms. IF you no longer live in a country where half your kids won't live to adulthood the number of kids you have drops for purely practical reasons.
@SomeMichGuy And the fallout reaches the sea and then... Apparently were only supposed to eat salmon once a week because of the mercury in it, I wonder what the safe level for plutonium and uranium is ?
@Captain OK so far no one has dared toanswer this question but th eonly comments that have been made are that if the population starts to decline the quality of infrastructure may start to delicne and this may reduce efficiency and so a loss in prductivity per head - exagerating the decline - not a jolly prospect
@Captain What i wouod add oth tat is that the increasd age of the populartion may at first give more work hours of availability but will surley leads to less per head as time goes by. So it sounds liek a declining population (so far) will actuialluy cause an accelating loss in productivity which is a bit of an oucch moment !
@oldguy73 And I'll probably be joining you there but having screwed up the rest of their futures for them don't you think its itme we did something for the younger generation ?
