Electoral Math 101... If We Still Have Free Election in 2032, The Electoral Map Is Not Favorable to Democrats. It Will Be Worse Than It Is Now.
Electoral Math 101
Assuming we still have free elections, 2032 will be a very problematic election year for Democrats, The 2030 census will probably see Blue States lose even more electoral votes to the South but without making those Red States any more competitive.
for electoral votes, add 2 for all states and give 3 to D.C.
"If these trends continue for the balance of the decade, California would lose 4 of its 52 congressional districts in reapportionment — only the second time the Golden State has ever lost representation. New York, meanwhile, would lose three seats, Illinois two, and Pennsylvania one."
That's a loss of 10 electoral votes from just those four states.
Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon and Rhode Island would lose another four, bringing the total to 14. Four of those lost by "Blue States" would go to solid "Red States": Idaho, South Carolina, Tennessee and Utah.
Florida (+3) will still be Fool's Gold for Democrats and with the political machinery in Texas (+4) run by Republicans, voter suppression will continue.
The remaining three would be one each to Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, which have only recently become toss-up states.
When you also include the changes from the 2020 census, if Joe Biden in 2020 was facing the likely Electoral Map of 2032 and won only the same states he won in 2020, instead of an electoral vote advantage of 306-232, it would have slimmed down to 290-248.
The shift? +1 Arizona -5 California +1 Georgia -3 Illinois -2 Michigan -1 Minnesota -4 New York -2 Pennsylvania -1 Rhode Island ------ -16
Keep in mind that a flip of 5,229 of votes in Arizona and 5,890 in Georgia would have given Trump the win in those states. Awarding those two states to Trump and with the projected electoral votes in 2032 for those states of 12 and 17, respectively, Trump would have came out on top with a 2032 map, 277-261.
Another reason why President Obama missed opportunties to enlarge the map for Democrats. Statehood should have been a priority for D.C. and Puerto Rico. The electoral math would be better, adding 6 electoral votes for Puerto Rico (which has about the same population as Iowa and Nevada). That's five extra Representatives in the House, assuming the House simply added five seats to the existing 435 (4 for Puerto Rico and 1 for D.C.)
Dems likely wouldn't be worried about the Senate right now, either, and Nancy Pelosi might still be Speaker (she may not have stepped down from the Speakership had the Dems not lost the House in 2022).
It's possible to imagine the Republican Party might reconstitute itself back into a credible political party by then which will change the dynamics of the electoral math.
Possible, but it may be damaged beyond repair by Trump.
A disaster in November for the GOP, losing the trifecta, may be the best bet for them to dump the MAGAs and go back to their core principles of a strong national defense, lower taxes and less government.
But with the South getting more seats in the House (and electoral votes) and the GOP controlling re-districting in most of the Red States, the evangelical-wing may simply replace presumed MAGA-beneficiaries like Ron DeSantis with true believers like Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Marsha Blackburn, etc.
Florida and Texas, set to likely gain a combined 7 electoral votes in 2032, are the states the Dems MUST work harder at to neutralize the GOP redistricting advantage.
GOP U.S. House Reps from Texas outnumber Dems by a two to one margin, 25-12 with one vacancy. This despite Biden losing the state by only 6 points, 52%-46%. In Florida, despite Biden losing by an even closer margin, 51%-48%, it's even worse in favor of the GOP: 20 of 28 U.S. House members are Republicans.
The party breakdown in Austin shows it is doable, although Republicans control the legislature. The Senate, 19-12, and the House, 86-64.
Florida, although a more competitve state in presidential races than Texas, is anything but competitive in Tallahassee. The GOP controls the Senate 28-12 and the House 83-36.
Democrats need to make Florida and Texas into "swing states" in the presidential races of the next decade. It has to start at the local level, to recruit better candidates to win in Austin and Tallahassee in 2026, 2028 and 2030 and reverse the gerrymandering.
And Ruth Bader Ginsburg had business to step down and retire while Obama was in office.
You seem to forget that Sen. Majority Leader Mitch McConnell blocked the vote to replace Scalia. (Obama nominated Merrick Garland).
What makes you think he wouldn't have done the same to replace Ginsburg?
But with the potential of four extra Democrats in the Senate by 2017, had statehood been given to D.C. and Puerto Rico, Dems could have BLOCKED all of Trump's SCOTUS nominees WITH a vote.
2015 or 2016, it doesn't matter. Republicans still controlled the Senate.
In fact, the last time a U.S. Supreme Court nominee was confirmed by an opposition-controlled Senate was in 1991.
Clarence Thomas was nominated by President George H. W. Bush. Democrats controlled the Senate 57-43. Eleven Democrats voted "yea."
Then-Sen. Joe Biden voted "nay."
The eleven Democrats voting to confirm Thomas were: AL - Shelby AZ - DeConcini GA - Fowler GA - Nunn IL - Dixon LA - Breaux LA - Johnston NE - Exon OK - Boren SC - Hollings VA - Robb
Two Republicans voted "nay" OR - Packwood VT - Jeffords
@beckyromero Of course it won't be anytime soon as they talked about it in the 70's - 80's. And of course nothing ever gets done because the demarcates and republicans just end up pointing fingers at each other and undoing what the other party did during their time in office..........
