Electoral Math 101... If We Still Have Free Election in 2032, The Electoral Map Is Not Favorable to Democrats. It Will Be Worse Than It Is Now.

Electoral Math 101

Assuming we still have free elections, 2032 will be a very problematic election year for Democrats, The 2030 census will probably see Blue States lose even more electoral votes to the South but without making those Red States any more competitive.


for electoral votes, add 2 for all states and give 3 to D.C.

"If these trends continue for the balance of the decade, California would lose 4 of its 52 congressional districts in reapportionment — only the second time the Golden State has ever lost representation. New York, meanwhile, would lose three seats, Illinois two, and Pennsylvania one."

That's a loss of 10 electoral votes from just those four states.

Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon and Rhode Island would lose another four, bringing the total to 14. Four of those lost by "Blue States" would go to solid "Red States": Idaho, South Carolina, Tennessee and Utah.

Florida (+3) will still be Fool's Gold for Democrats and with the political machinery in Texas (+4) run by Republicans, voter suppression will continue.

The remaining three would be one each to Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, which have only recently become toss-up states.

When you also include the changes from the 2020 census, if Joe Biden in 2020 was facing the likely Electoral Map of 2032 and won only the same states he won in 2020, instead of an electoral vote advantage of 306-232, it would have slimmed down to 290-248.

The shift?
+1 Arizona
-5 California
+1 Georgia
-3 Illinois
-2 Michigan
-1 Minnesota
-4 New York
-2 Pennsylvania
-1 Rhode Island
------
-16

Keep in mind that a flip of 5,229 of votes in Arizona and 5,890 in Georgia would have given Trump the win in those states. Awarding those two states to Trump and with the projected electoral votes in 2032 for those states of 12 and 17, respectively, Trump would have came out on top with a 2032 map, 277-261.

Another reason why President Obama missed opportunties to enlarge the map for Democrats. Statehood should have been a priority for D.C. and Puerto Rico. The electoral math would be better, adding 6 electoral votes for Puerto Rico (which has about the same population as Iowa and Nevada). That's five extra Representatives in the House, assuming the House simply added five seats to the existing 435 (4 for Puerto Rico and 1 for D.C.)

Dems likely wouldn't be worried about the Senate right now, either, and Nancy Pelosi might still be Speaker (she may not have stepped down from the Speakership had the Dems not lost the House in 2022).