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Best podcast episode I've seen in ages.

I am really into politics. Much into politics. 馃槉

I'm a leftist but I don't want to just stick to that and Aaron Bastani's guest here is a heterodox centre-right economist who has some fascinating insight into current geopolitics. They have a surprisingly large amount of common ground in terms of their analysis.

The main takeaways (some of them ain't pretty).

1) The Houtis disruption of Red Sea shipping will create global inflation due to supply shocks and the impact will hit in the summer months. Nobody knows how bad this will be though its likely to be significant.
2) Invasion of Iran would be logistically near impossible, despite some American policymakers wanting it.
3) Sactions and liquidation of Russian assets has a worse impact on the West than on Russia. I am sure that this is debatable but its food for thought.
4) Western politicians consistently underestimate the fragility of their economies and the risks involved with playing hardball with China.
5) Because no epic catastrophes have impacted the West in living memory, this leads our leaders into complacency and taking stupid geopolitical risks.
6) Declining birthrates in the West will result in major economic problems within a few decades and we (in Pilkington's eyes) need a plan to deal with this now.

Let me know what you think.

[media=https://youtu.be/7exjLSxKenE]
NorthwestM
Don't have to listen to the podcast today, but based on your synopsis:

[quote]1) The Houtis disruption of Red Sea shipping will create global inflation due to supply shocks and the impact will hit in the summer months. Nobody knows how bad this will be though its likely to be significant.
[/quote]

A few weeks ago, I posted about both Tesla and Volvo halting production in their European plants, due to the shipping issues in the Red Sea. If the Houthis are undeterred, it will cause a supply chain disruption, but absolutely not global inflation. Did you note that Houthis are not targeting oil shipments in general?

[quote]2) Invasion of Iran would be logistically near impossible, despite some American policymakers wanting it.
[/quote]

Invasion/Occupation? the US is not going to do that again, unless Trump gets back in power. Crippling Iran's economy, is infrastructure, and taking it back to the early 20th century, is all possible. Not that the Biden administration will contemplate that plan.

A direct attack from Iran, will change that calculus, and Iran knows it, and despite constant attacks/assassinations of its top generals, by the IDF, Iran is not trying to. hit back, except through proxies.

[quote]3) Sactions and liquidation of Russian assets has a worse impact on the West than on Russia. I am sure that this is debatable but its food for thought.[/quote]

Not a credible claim.

[quote]4) Western politicians consistently underestimate the fragility of their economies and the risks involved with playing hardball with China.[/quote]

During campaigns and public appearances. Behind the scenes, western economies need the Chinese market with its ever expanding buying power and appetite for western goods. It is a double-edged sword, because there's so much Xi can do, to wean China's middle class off Disney merchandise.

[quote]
5) Because no epic catastrophes have impacted the West in living memory, this leads our leaders into complacency and taking stupid geopolitical risks.
[/quote]

If you mean Brexit, MAGA and the rise of white supremacy in Hungary, then noted. And some of our Western nations have yet to learn their lesson. trump is now running unopposed.

[quote]
6) Declining birthrates in the West will result in major economic problems within a few decades and we (in Pilkington's eyes) need a plan to deal with this now.[/quote]

Don't look now, and I hope you're sitting down, but next time you're at the supermarket, check out how many items you can't pronounce. Personally I love it, and I'm really pissed some items available in Michigan and Minnesota Costcos, are not in my Kirkland Costco, and FFS, what the hell am I supposed to do with frozen, cubed goat parts? 馃ぃ
Burnley12341-45, M
@Northwest I need to look into claim three more and maybe [b]I[/b] exaggerated [b]his [/b]point.

On 1), he does deal with that in the convo. Yes, energy is relatively undisrupted but in terms of manufacturing goods from Asia to Europe, it's a massive issue. I hope that I am wrong.

[quote]f you mean Brexit, MAGA and the rise of white supremacy in Hungary, then note. And some of our Western nations have yet to learn their lesson. trump is now running unopposed.[/quote]

He states this about Western elites in general, inclusive of MAGA

[quote]6) Declining birthrates in the West will result in major economic problems within a few decades and we (in Pilkington's eyes) need a plan to deal with this now.[/quote]

This isn't being used here as an argument against immigration.
NorthwestM
@Burnley123 [quote]This isn't being used here as an argument against immigration.
[/quote]

I was being sarcastic. People who think they can turn the clock back, will do some crazy shit, Brexit for instance 馃ぃ
sarabee199526-30, F
#1 & #2 absolutely true.

Agree that #3 is debatable.

#4 & #5 ... Eh, okay.

#6 is 100% true and I've been saying this for a while. This is why the US and Western Europe NEED immigration. And it's why Russia is in such dire straights already. Look at their population pyramid.
Elessar26-30, M
@sarabee1995 I don't doubt you're saying this in good faith, but I don't think it'll end up as you're hoping.

MAGA is a group that is very open about their fascistic tendencies and that already attempted one violent action in order to overrule/suppress the vote, and by doing so, manifested clearly that they couldn't care less about reuniting with you or "healing", they only and openly care about installing their candidate as a de-facto dictator and [i]owning the libs [/i]at any cost. Peace only works when both parties are interested in finding some middle ground, these people very openly aren't. Also I'll argue that those who went as far as attempting a coup should be the ones doing a greater effort to find a middle ground and moving towards the rest of the country, not the other way around; and yet, in spite of Biden treating them with silk gloves and running on the manifest premise of trying to be everyone's president and not just the Democrats' (unlike their candidate, who takes pride in purposefully harming their opposition the most), they've only double down with furthering division and hate. Biden hadn't and hasn't done anything to be a divisive president as far as I can tell, they've deemed him one because he isn't Trump and/or hasn't conceded to them, and they'll do the same with anyone who isn't Trump, including Haley, unless she'll run on being a puppet the same way Medvedev was to Putin. They were given many off ramps and took none, clearly the appeasement approach doesn't work.

By pardoning these people you aren't going to fix the country, but rather, you're setting the precedent that any candidate who loses an election may scream election fraud without producing any evidence whatsoever, encourage a riot, refute the outcome of the democratic process, stage and attempt a coup, and then count on being pardoned too. Similarly to how pardoning Nixon resulted in setting the precedent that (ex/) presidents can get away with probably everything and be pardoned, emboldening Trump to try too.

Not only that, it's also a smack on the face of anyone who played the game by the rules until this point and who accepted the democratic result when their preferred candidate didn't win either a primary or a general election. Biden is a pretty centrist option and I don't see his core electorate revolting, but what would impede someone who's more at left from revolting against the DNC or even against the federal govt in case, if after all exceptions were made for MAGA? It's a can of worms you don't really want to open, it'll make voting ultimately meaningless because no one will be bound to accept the result.

I'm writing this from a country that went through 23 years of o.g. fascism, extreme political polarization in the 70s to the point of having a problem with domestic terrorism that really makes MAGA look like children at the park (the so called years of lead), and more recently ~20 years of populist right-wing govts led by a guy who had virtually total control of the media consumed by the people creating yet another massive political cult centered around himself, and I can assure you that appeasement or "healing" didn't work at all with absolutely any of these people. You need someone who makes it clear that the rules bind everyone, not someone who's intimidated into making concessions in fear of further escalation or division, because they'll only escalate and distance themselves more until you'll finally concede them nothing less than everything.
sarabee199526-30, F
@Elessar I thank you for your strong and challenging commentary. Yes, there is a time to push back on extremism, but there is also a time to invite the less committed extremists back into the fold. It is always hard to see where we are between the two when in the midst.

I think there are committed MAGA Republicans who didn't think the crowd went far enough on January 6. I also believe there are MAGA Republicans who were horrified to see the People's House over-run and the Speaker's Office occupied.

And, of course, there are many Republicans who are not of the MAGA variety and who just want a return to civility on both side of the political divide. I posted about the Party of Reagan a while back and I still maintain that the Party of Trump is not the Party of Reagan. It is something new that is or borders on a cult of personality.

I have some friends and colleagues who are deep into the personality of Trump and I have asked them if an issue came up and the choice was between something bad for Republicanism or something bad for Trump, which way would they be inclined to lean. From my small and not very scientific study, the MAGA Republicans are split about 50/50 here (if you can get them to answer the question). My point being that if you can retire Trump for good, many or most would return to the Republican tent.
Elessar26-30, M
@sarabee1995 I don't think exonerating them from the very rules that bind and thus far bound everyone else is the way to get those people back; it's up to them de-escalating at this point, democracy cannot compromise with people who violently attempted to suppress it, or it's finished. There's plentiful of historical and contemporary evidence of this happening and being inevitable, unfortunately.

I also agree on the fact that not all Republicans are MAGA, but I don't agree at all on the fact there's such a thing as a less-extremist MAGA. "horrified" by the coup, yet still identifying with MAGA. You know that German saying, basically like 芦[i]if you have one nazi and nine other people at the table, you have ten nazis at the table[/i]禄? It's the same situation here: if they were genuinely horrified they would've abandoned that position and moved to the non-MAGA wing, if they haven't it means they're perfectly okay with political violence, domestic terrorism and suppression of democracy, just lacking the [i]cojones [/i]to admit it publicly.

The only way forward, if democracy wants to survive, is enforcing the law on those who break it. The moment you make concession to people who attempted to install themselves in power after being voted out by the majority, you live in their dictatorship. The moment these people realize their serious actions have serious consequences, and feel the consequences, they'll go back to the fold, not before.
Richard65M
I subscribe to Novara and send money every month as they rely on paid subscriptions, which enables them to practice quality journalism, free from corporate pressures. I also like how they are prepared to criticise aspects of left wing ideology too, and the journalists like Bastani and Michael Walker will even intelligently disagree with one another during podcasts.
Burnley12341-45, M
@Richard65 I pay them every month too. Along with Richard Seymour's Patreon.

Novarra is criminally underrated, even by the British left. It manages the trick of combining quality analysis with being accessible. Since I fell out with the Guardian during the Corbyn years, it's my go-to news source.

Walker is a better news anchor than most major news stations and Bastani's on-depth interviews with intellectuals are fascinating. Their journalistic standards are also high and that matters.
CountScrofula41-45, M
I'll give er a listen.
Burnley12341-45, M
@CountScrofula Let me know what you think
Elessar26-30, M
#3 isn't only debatable, but enough to make one question his entire credibility, or who's sponsored this analysis.
MethDozerM
We should just use those frozen Russian assets and spend them on ourselves
Burnley12341-45, M
@MethDozer [i]When the icicles have finally melted off them, they are some awesome sex toys. [/i]

On multiple levels, it doesn't work like that!
MethDozerM
@Burnley123 Stupidly I know it doesn't. But it should. Russian assets in American banks? You fucked up now it's ours.

 
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