Best podcast episode I've seen in ages.

I am really into politics. Much into politics. 😊

I'm a leftist but I don't want to just stick to that and Aaron Bastani's guest here is a heterodox centre-right economist who has some fascinating insight into current geopolitics. They have a surprisingly large amount of common ground in terms of their analysis.

The main takeaways (some of them ain't pretty).

1) The Houtis disruption of Red Sea shipping will create global inflation due to supply shocks and the impact will hit in the summer months. Nobody knows how bad this will be though its likely to be significant.
2) Invasion of Iran would be logistically near impossible, despite some American policymakers wanting it.
3) Sactions and liquidation of Russian assets has a worse impact on the West than on Russia. I am sure that this is debatable but its food for thought.
4) Western politicians consistently underestimate the fragility of their economies and the risks involved with playing hardball with China.
5) Because no epic catastrophes have impacted the West in living memory, this leads our leaders into complacency and taking stupid geopolitical risks.
6) Declining birthrates in the West will result in major economic problems within a few decades and we (in Pilkington's eyes) need a plan to deal with this now.

Let me know what you think.

[media=https://youtu.be/7exjLSxKenE]

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Northwest · M

Don't have to listen to the podcast today, but based on your synopsis:

[quote]1) The Houtis disruption of Red Sea shipping will create global inflation due to supply shocks and the impact will hit in the summer months. Nobody knows how bad this will be though its likely to be significant.
[/quote]

A few weeks ago, I posted about both Tesla and Volvo halting production in their European plants, due to the shipping issues in the Red Sea. If the Houthis are undeterred, it will cause a supply chain disruption, but absolutely not global inflation. Did you note that Houthis are not targeting oil shipments in general?

[quote]2) Invasion of Iran would be logistically near impossible, despite some American policymakers wanting it.
[/quote]

Invasion/Occupation? the US is not going to do that again, unless Trump gets back in power. Crippling Iran's economy, is infrastructure, and taking it back to the early 20th century, is all possible. Not that the Biden administration will contemplate that plan.

A direct attack from Iran, will change that calculus, and Iran knows it, and despite constant attacks/assassinations of its top generals, by the IDF, Iran is not trying to. hit back, except through proxies.

[quote]3) Sactions and liquidation of Russian assets has a worse impact on the West than on Russia. I am sure that this is debatable but its food for thought.[/quote]

Not a credible claim.

[quote]4) Western politicians consistently underestimate the fragility of their economies and the risks involved with playing hardball with China.[/quote]

During campaigns and public appearances. Behind the scenes, western economies need the Chinese market with its ever expanding buying power and appetite for western goods. It is a double-edged sword, because there's so much Xi can do, to wean China's middle class off Disney merchandise.

[quote]
5) Because no epic catastrophes have impacted the West in living memory, this leads our leaders into complacency and taking stupid geopolitical risks.
[/quote]

If you mean Brexit, MAGA and the rise of white supremacy in Hungary, then noted. And some of our Western nations have yet to learn their lesson. trump is now running unopposed.

[quote]
6) Declining birthrates in the West will result in major economic problems within a few decades and we (in Pilkington's eyes) need a plan to deal with this now.[/quote]

Don't look now, and I hope you're sitting down, but next time you're at the supermarket, check out how many items you can't pronounce. Personally I love it, and I'm really pissed some items available in Michigan and Minnesota Costcos, are not in my Kirkland Costco, and FFS, what the hell am I supposed to do with frozen, cubed goat parts? 🤣

Burnley123 · 41-45, M

@Northwest I need to look into claim three more and maybe [b]I[/b] exaggerated [b]his [/b]point.

On 1), he does deal with that in the convo. Yes, energy is relatively undisrupted but in terms of manufacturing goods from Asia to Europe, it's a massive issue. I hope that I am wrong.

[quote]f you mean Brexit, MAGA and the rise of white supremacy in Hungary, then note. And some of our Western nations have yet to learn their lesson. trump is now running unopposed.[/quote]

He states this about Western elites in general, inclusive of MAGA

[quote]6) Declining birthrates in the West will result in major economic problems within a few decades and we (in Pilkington's eyes) need a plan to deal with this now.[/quote]

This isn't being used here as an argument against immigration.

Northwest · M

@Burnley123 [quote]This isn't being used here as an argument against immigration.
[/quote]

I was being sarcastic. People who think they can turn the clock back, will do some crazy shit, Brexit for instance 🤣