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Best podcast episode I've seen in ages.

I am really into politics. Much into politics. 馃槉

I'm a leftist but I don't want to just stick to that and Aaron Bastani's guest here is a heterodox centre-right economist who has some fascinating insight into current geopolitics. They have a surprisingly large amount of common ground in terms of their analysis.

The main takeaways (some of them ain't pretty).

1) The Houtis disruption of Red Sea shipping will create global inflation due to supply shocks and the impact will hit in the summer months. Nobody knows how bad this will be though its likely to be significant.
2) Invasion of Iran would be logistically near impossible, despite some American policymakers wanting it.
3) Sactions and liquidation of Russian assets has a worse impact on the West than on Russia. I am sure that this is debatable but its food for thought.
4) Western politicians consistently underestimate the fragility of their economies and the risks involved with playing hardball with China.
5) Because no epic catastrophes have impacted the West in living memory, this leads our leaders into complacency and taking stupid geopolitical risks.
6) Declining birthrates in the West will result in major economic problems within a few decades and we (in Pilkington's eyes) need a plan to deal with this now.

Let me know what you think.

[media=https://youtu.be/7exjLSxKenE]
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sarabee199526-30, F
#1 & #2 absolutely true.

Agree that #3 is debatable.

#4 & #5 ... Eh, okay.

#6 is 100% true and I've been saying this for a while. This is why the US and Western Europe NEED immigration. And it's why Russia is in such dire straights already. Look at their population pyramid.
Burnley12341-45, M
@sarabee1995 They mention immigration at the end of the Post. Pilkington says it's a short term solution, with political consequences and creates a brain drain elsewhere. He didn't give an alternative on the pod, perhaps because it would be unpalatable to a Novara Media audience, which is on the left.

I'm speculating, but perhaps what he has in mind is the Hungarian govts policy of giving people houses if they have a certain number of kids. Personally, I'd not be against it, as long as it is open to LGBTQ couples who adopt and is open to people of all races. Which it isn't in Hungary.

With you knowledge if the US military, I can take 2) as confirmation.

As of point 1) being true (and there is no reason to doubt it). This means that major inflation will hit the US just before the Presidential election. That would seem to make it almost certain that Biden loses to Trump.
sarabee199526-30, F
@Burnley123 Let's hope Trump is not on the ticket. I wouldn't mind Biden losing to Ambassador Haley.
Burnley12341-45, M
@sarabee1995 Do you really think Hayley can beat Trump in the primary?
sarabee199526-30, F
@Burnley123 Hey ... Don't bust my bubble. A girl can dream. 馃え
Elessar26-30, M
@sarabee1995 Isn't she the one who said she'd pardon Trump of all federal crimes?
sarabee199526-30, F
@Elessar idk, maybe. But who cares as long as he doesn't get re-elected.
Elessar26-30, M
@sarabee1995 It's a very dangerous approach to it, if she turns out to be controlled opposition and use her presidency just to give out pardons and override the judiciary and at the next round the MAGA faction wins, it's ultimately no different than having voted for Trump directly in the first place.

Think of Medvedev in Russia, his whole presidency ultimately only served the purpose of making Putin de facto king. Yet, I remember at the time many (young) Russians were convinced he was a breath of fresh air.
sarabee199526-30, F
@Elessar We (here in America) have had too much impeaching lately.

Right now if a president were to get a speeding ticket, the opposition would call for impeachment. No, I'm not comparing President Trump's misdeeds to speeding, but rather trying to make the point that we need a healing president. Historically, I think it was President Ford who pardoned his predecessor and was criticized for it. But in doing so, he helped the country move on.

I don't want President Trump elected again. I didn't want him elected the first time. I also don't want to see President Biden elected again. We need someone to unite our deeply divided country. Neither of these two is capable of that. I'm hopeful that Nikki Haley is.
Elessar26-30, M
@sarabee1995 I don't doubt you're saying this in good faith, but I don't think it'll end up as you're hoping.

MAGA is a group that is very open about their fascistic tendencies and that already attempted one violent action in order to overrule/suppress the vote, and by doing so, manifested clearly that they couldn't care less about reuniting with you or "healing", they only and openly care about installing their candidate as a de-facto dictator and [i]owning the libs [/i]at any cost. Peace only works when both parties are interested in finding some middle ground, these people very openly aren't. Also I'll argue that those who went as far as attempting a coup should be the ones doing a greater effort to find a middle ground and moving towards the rest of the country, not the other way around; and yet, in spite of Biden treating them with silk gloves and running on the manifest premise of trying to be everyone's president and not just the Democrats' (unlike their candidate, who takes pride in purposefully harming their opposition the most), they've only double down with furthering division and hate. Biden hadn't and hasn't done anything to be a divisive president as far as I can tell, they've deemed him one because he isn't Trump and/or hasn't conceded to them, and they'll do the same with anyone who isn't Trump, including Haley, unless she'll run on being a puppet the same way Medvedev was to Putin. They were given many off ramps and took none, clearly the appeasement approach doesn't work.

By pardoning these people you aren't going to fix the country, but rather, you're setting the precedent that any candidate who loses an election may scream election fraud without producing any evidence whatsoever, encourage a riot, refute the outcome of the democratic process, stage and attempt a coup, and then count on being pardoned too. Similarly to how pardoning Nixon resulted in setting the precedent that (ex/) presidents can get away with probably everything and be pardoned, emboldening Trump to try too.

Not only that, it's also a smack on the face of anyone who played the game by the rules until this point and who accepted the democratic result when their preferred candidate didn't win either a primary or a general election. Biden is a pretty centrist option and I don't see his core electorate revolting, but what would impede someone who's more at left from revolting against the DNC or even against the federal govt in case, if after all exceptions were made for MAGA? It's a can of worms you don't really want to open, it'll make voting ultimately meaningless because no one will be bound to accept the result.

I'm writing this from a country that went through 23 years of o.g. fascism, extreme political polarization in the 70s to the point of having a problem with domestic terrorism that really makes MAGA look like children at the park (the so called years of lead), and more recently ~20 years of populist right-wing govts led by a guy who had virtually total control of the media consumed by the people creating yet another massive political cult centered around himself, and I can assure you that appeasement or "healing" didn't work at all with absolutely any of these people. You need someone who makes it clear that the rules bind everyone, not someone who's intimidated into making concessions in fear of further escalation or division, because they'll only escalate and distance themselves more until you'll finally concede them nothing less than everything.
sarabee199526-30, F
@Elessar I thank you for your strong and challenging commentary. Yes, there is a time to push back on extremism, but there is also a time to invite the less committed extremists back into the fold. It is always hard to see where we are between the two when in the midst.

I think there are committed MAGA Republicans who didn't think the crowd went far enough on January 6. I also believe there are MAGA Republicans who were horrified to see the People's House over-run and the Speaker's Office occupied.

And, of course, there are many Republicans who are not of the MAGA variety and who just want a return to civility on both side of the political divide. I posted about the Party of Reagan a while back and I still maintain that the Party of Trump is not the Party of Reagan. It is something new that is or borders on a cult of personality.

I have some friends and colleagues who are deep into the personality of Trump and I have asked them if an issue came up and the choice was between something bad for Republicanism or something bad for Trump, which way would they be inclined to lean. From my small and not very scientific study, the MAGA Republicans are split about 50/50 here (if you can get them to answer the question). My point being that if you can retire Trump for good, many or most would return to the Republican tent.
Elessar26-30, M
@sarabee1995 I don't think exonerating them from the very rules that bind and thus far bound everyone else is the way to get those people back; it's up to them de-escalating at this point, democracy cannot compromise with people who violently attempted to suppress it, or it's finished. There's plentiful of historical and contemporary evidence of this happening and being inevitable, unfortunately.

I also agree on the fact that not all Republicans are MAGA, but I don't agree at all on the fact there's such a thing as a less-extremist MAGA. "horrified" by the coup, yet still identifying with MAGA. You know that German saying, basically like 芦[i]if you have one nazi and nine other people at the table, you have ten nazis at the table[/i]禄? It's the same situation here: if they were genuinely horrified they would've abandoned that position and moved to the non-MAGA wing, if they haven't it means they're perfectly okay with political violence, domestic terrorism and suppression of democracy, just lacking the [i]cojones [/i]to admit it publicly.

The only way forward, if democracy wants to survive, is enforcing the law on those who break it. The moment you make concession to people who attempted to install themselves in power after being voted out by the majority, you live in their dictatorship. The moment these people realize their serious actions have serious consequences, and feel the consequences, they'll go back to the fold, not before.