SCOTUS Takes Up the Trump Insurrection Ballot Ban Case

They're taking up the Colorado case - and their ruling will almost certainly apply to other state rulings as well (such as Maine).

What do I think SHOULD happen?

Trump should be barred from ever serving in federal office again.

What I think WILL happen? The Roberts Court has been pretty spineless. Remember how it decided ObamaCare? By twisting the meaning of the individual mandate as a "tax" instead of a requirement to purchase a product from a business.

So I believe that SCOTUS will avoid the Colorado ruling that the prohibition on holding federal office under the insurrection clause of the 14th Amendment applies to the president and vice president (as "officeholders), as well as avoiding the Colorado ruling that Donald Trump did indeed take an oath to uphold the Constitution despite the word play defense his lawyers offered.

What they will do is allow Trump to remain on the ballot by saying Trump hasn't (yet) been convicted of insurrection (never mind that he gave support to those that did), perhaps kicking the can to Congress for that interpretation.

The Court knows there isn't time for such a criminal conviction of Trump to happen before the election and they know a divided Congress won't be able to do anything either.

Do they feel Trump is a danger to democracy? No doubt they do. But they will figure, like the Court did with ObamaCare, the next election will decide it, one way or the other, and make everything about Trump mute, one way or the other.

The problem with that is that if Trump were to win, it may be the LAST free election we will have.

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LeopoldBloom · M

While I don't want Trump to hold office again, I'm not sure we want to set a precedent where 9 unelected judges (actually just 5) can decide if a candidate should be disqualified. That being said, this court hasn't exactly done Trump's bidding. They didn't help him with his election challenges. So it's possible they will uphold the Colorado decision.

Trump's strongest argument will be that Jan. 6 wasn't an "insurrection." The amendment clearly applied to the Confederates who were disqualified after the Civil War, but that event was a lot bigger than Jan. 6. On the other hand, Couy Griffin was disqualified for his own role on Jan. 6, so there's a precedent for calling it an insurrection (not that this court cares about precedent). Griffin was convicted of a crime, but that's not required as the former Confederates were not only not convicted of any crime, they weren't even charged with one. So the amendment is self-executing.

samueltyler2 · 80-89, M

@LeopoldBloom in the retrospectoscope, it was a big error not to try the traitors. They became self-proclaimed defenders of their so called way of life. This lead to them claiming the war was not based on slavery. That was taught to subsequent generations. That in turn led to the development of the klan, and the current rewriting of his story by the neocons.

Strictgram · 70-79, C

@LeopoldBloom Co. should go down 9-0 but it will be at least 6-3.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Strictgram There is a good chance the court will rule against Trump. It's no secret that the billionaire class would love to get rid of him, and as we've learned, Thomas and Alito are whores who are completely owned by billionaires. With them and the three liberals, that's 5-4, or 6-3 if Roberts sides with them so he can write the opinion. Having the unaccountable Supreme Court disqualify Trump will allow other Republican politicians and pundits to scream and yell. Expect calls to impeach the justices, followed by a shoulder shrug and "but what can ya do?"

LeopoldBloom · M

@samueltyler2 I don't know enough Civil War history to say why they weren't tried. I do know that reconstruction ended prematurely and the Jim Crow era began as part of the deal to get Rutherford B. Hayes into office.

Strictgram · 70-79, C

@LeopoldBloom I'll wager any amount you want that Trump appears on all 50 ballots.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Strictgram Assuming he's the nominee, of course.

Strictgram · 70-79, C

@LeopoldBloom Primary and general.

LeopoldBloom · M

@Strictgram His team proposed cancelling the remaining Republican primaries, but backed down. I thought they already missed the deadline for getting him onto the Montana primary ballot, not like he'll need it.