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GerOttman · 61-69, M
The NYT link has some very interesting breakdowns. I did not find this particular graphic there however. Going directly to AP pooling also has lots of data. Also interesting, which groups are not included. Shows Whites but not Blacks or Latino, Has Protestant and Catholic but not Jewish or Muslim. I wonder if this information is in the data set somewhere.
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SW-User
@GerOttman @SquirrelGirl I found this, which the NYT based their info on
https://apnorc.org/projects/ap-votecast-2020/
[quote]In the 2020 general election, VoteCast completed more than 130,000 interviews with registered voters between October 26 and November 3, concluding as polls closed on Election Day. AP VoteCast delivered data about the presidential election in all 50 states, as well as all Senate and governors’ races in 2020.[/quote]
With the vote count at over $150 million, this is really not a reliable cross section IMHO. 🤷♀️
https://apnorc.org/projects/ap-votecast-2020/
[quote]In the 2020 general election, VoteCast completed more than 130,000 interviews with registered voters between October 26 and November 3, concluding as polls closed on Election Day. AP VoteCast delivered data about the presidential election in all 50 states, as well as all Senate and governors’ races in 2020.[/quote]
With the vote count at over $150 million, this is really not a reliable cross section IMHO. 🤷♀️
GerOttman · 61-69, M
@SW-User Well, it's better than the 669 phone calls. I think maybe that was referring only to Alaska. That's what was at the end of the link.
SW-User
@GerOttman You've stated exactly what I feel about this. It's not something I consider an accurate accounting from any angle. When I tried to check my state stat at the bottom of the page of the link, it only gave me the election results, not the info found on the Alaska link. In trying to uncover more info, I didn't find anything but, I'll admit I didn't spend a lot of time on it.
SW-User
@SW-User I don't have one. Just some of the information based on the age & salary demographics don't look quite right to me. Gut feeling only. As I said, my own opinion. I never trust any news source fully.
All I can say is, I hate wishing away time but I can't wait for January 20th to be here and gone.
All I can say is, I hate wishing away time but I can't wait for January 20th to be here and gone.
SW-User
@SquirrelGirl [quote]the votes are obviously secret... but this is based on scientific polling and as accurate as it gets and its what politicans work with. not some fancy news tv poll [/quote]
Please believe me when I say I'm not trying to be difficult or rude. I just don't agree these are "as scientific or as accurate as it gets."
This is from the link you gave to another user here
Source: AP votecast exit polls which can be viewed NYT website (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-alaska.html).
[quote] Alaska Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted
The numbers on this page are estimates from A.P. VoteCast, a survey conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago. These surveys were conducted online and by phone, largely in the days before the election.
The estimates shown here reflect the responses of 689 likely voters. They have been adjusted to match the actual vote count. [/quote]
"689 likely voters" taken prior to the voting online and via phone. Is a very small subsection, even from Alaska.
@SW-User I went to the reddit link. It only lists the link she's listed here. The Alaska one. Someone's reddit post and a subsequent spreadsheet the reddit user made isn't something I would consider a reliable source.
Guys, am I missing something? Another link?
Please believe me when I say I'm not trying to be difficult or rude. I just don't agree these are "as scientific or as accurate as it gets."
This is from the link you gave to another user here
Source: AP votecast exit polls which can be viewed NYT website (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-alaska.html).
[quote] Alaska Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted
The numbers on this page are estimates from A.P. VoteCast, a survey conducted for The Associated Press by NORC at the University of Chicago. These surveys were conducted online and by phone, largely in the days before the election.
The estimates shown here reflect the responses of 689 likely voters. They have been adjusted to match the actual vote count. [/quote]
"689 likely voters" taken prior to the voting online and via phone. Is a very small subsection, even from Alaska.
@SW-User I went to the reddit link. It only lists the link she's listed here. The Alaska one. Someone's reddit post and a subsequent spreadsheet the reddit user made isn't something I would consider a reliable source.
Guys, am I missing something? Another link?
SW-User
@SW-User @SquirrelGirl [quote] A.P. VoteCast is a survey of the American electorate conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press.
The margin of sampling error for all voters is estimated to be plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. Potential sampling error is greater in the estimates for smaller subgroups. More details about A.P. VoteCast's methodology are available here. [/quote]
That's a huge margin IMHO. I get that they did it for every other state but I know people who give fake info because they don't like to discuss it with anyone.
The margin of sampling error for all voters is estimated to be plus or minus 6.1 percentage points. Potential sampling error is greater in the estimates for smaller subgroups. More details about A.P. VoteCast's methodology are available here. [/quote]
That's a huge margin IMHO. I get that they did it for every other state but I know people who give fake info because they don't like to discuss it with anyone.
DrWatson · 70-79, M
I find the breakdown by age to be the most revealing, in that it gives a hint about the future. (Some of these variables are related to each other: for example "single" and "young" are not independent variables.)
I also found it interesting that in those Biden scenarios with younger voters, Texas flips blue. I think that if Texas eventually becomes a blue state, it will be hard for Republicans to win the presidency.
I also found it interesting that in those Biden scenarios with younger voters, Texas flips blue. I think that if Texas eventually becomes a blue state, it will be hard for Republicans to win the presidency.
DrWatson · 70-79, M
@GerOttman Yes, I do realize that political positions shift for many people as they age. I would never assume that the percent voting democrat will remain constant for any cohort of people as time passes. Still, the stark contrasts here might indicate that even taking that into account, we might be seeing a glimpse of the future.
At any rate, I think for the foreseeable future, the presidential elections will be very close, just as the past two were, with narrow margins in swing states making the difference.
At any rate, I think for the foreseeable future, the presidential elections will be very close, just as the past two were, with narrow margins in swing states making the difference.
SW-User
@Cierzo I would normally agree with you but the depends wearing baboon shouldn’t be wished upon any country.
Burnley123 · 41-45, M
Its interesting and clearly your country is very divided.
The urban/rural discrepency is staggering, even if the bar is exaggerated by the electoral college state wins.
The other interesting thing is that affluent voters still favour republicans. For all the talk of the liberal elite vrs the white working class, the biggest section of the Republican base remains affluent fiscal Conservatives.
The urban/rural discrepency is staggering, even if the bar is exaggerated by the electoral college state wins.
The other interesting thing is that affluent voters still favour republicans. For all the talk of the liberal elite vrs the white working class, the biggest section of the Republican base remains affluent fiscal Conservatives.
SquirrelGirl · F
@Burnley123 less educated people always vote conservative in a majority.. in every country. that doesnt mean that all conservatives are dumb or that all dumb people vote consevative... but its a clear concept without exceptions
SquirrelGirl · F
@KrackerBash found it on reddit
Source: AP votecast exit polls which can be viewed NYT website (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-alaska.html).
I have also made the spreadsheet sharable. Can be accessed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j-sTWtIrXuqMOj6I67X0Q9bpQ-XmKkf71jXj48j_BmE/edit?usp=sharing
Source: AP votecast exit polls which can be viewed NYT website (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/ap-polls-alaska.html).
I have also made the spreadsheet sharable. Can be accessed here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1j-sTWtIrXuqMOj6I67X0Q9bpQ-XmKkf71jXj48j_BmE/edit?usp=sharing
@SquirrelGirl Thanks, Squirrelly.
DeWayfarer · 61-69, M
I find it fascinating that in every demographic except two, protestants and voted on election day, my state voted for Biden. And they have the most electoral votes of any state as well as the most population.
Sort of makes light of all demographics if you were to consider these accurate. Not saying they are or not.
Sort of makes light of all demographics if you were to consider these accurate. Not saying they are or not.
SW-User
I'll go check the sources but I wonder how they have access to the information this quickly to be able to come to the conclusions they do.
CheshireCatalyst · 36-40, M
That's fascinating. The Protestant / Catholics one especially!
vetguy1991 · 51-55, M
Crazy