Do you think the polls will accurately reflect the election?

Most polls have Clinton leading, FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 78.9 chance of winning via their simulations of the election (I know some polls say Trump will win, but none that are respectable besides maybe Rasmussen). Do you think the election will be vastly different from the polls? Why do you think so? Please no anecdotal evidence such as "everyone I know is voting for candidate X".

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Xuan12 · 31-35, M

Really depends on the quality of the polling methodology. High quality polling can be very accurate, though not 100%. You ever notice how they can call districts with high accuracy after only a few percent of the votes are counted? It's because of strong statistical extrapolation techniques.

paresseux · 26-30, M

Truth

paresseux · 26-30, M

My thought is that with this election something could happen so close to voting day that could swing it as well, to say nothing of the actual accuracy of the polls. Also some states are so close that the difference is well within the self admitted margin of error of the poll.

Xuan12 · 31-35, M

@paresseux: Indeed. Even a good poll with +/- 1% error isn't going to tell you much if the race is actually that close.

ALT4554 · F

Polls are surveys of LESS than a thousand people. It also has a 3%+/- accuracy. Take it lightly. Not a real big picture

Muthafukajones · 46-50, M

Aren't their certain states that accurately predict the future president every time? I believe OHIO.. is one such state... it would interesting to see what the polls from such states are saying.

paresseux · 26-30, M

Yeah the election really depends on a handful of states. In Oklahoma Hillary is likely to get almost no electoral votes and in California Trump is likely to get almost none. Its the states that could go either way, in the electoral and the popular vote, that matter.

EvilEmily · F

well even if hillary wins the election she will be arrested.. wont she ?

paresseux · 26-30, M

Not if the emails they are currently finding are the same as the ones they have already found. You could MAYBE argue obstruction of justice, but I doubt she will ever be indicted for anything.

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paresseux · 26-30, M

Yes, some places have early voting such as Ohio, but I do not believe they will release the results until everyone has voted.

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