Do you think the polls will accurately reflect the election?

Most polls have Clinton leading, FiveThirtyEight gives Clinton a 78.9 chance of winning via their simulations of the election (I know some polls say Trump will win, but none that are respectable besides maybe Rasmussen). Do you think the election will be vastly different from the polls? Why do you think so? Please no anecdotal evidence such as "everyone I know is voting for candidate X".

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Xuan12 · 31-35, M

Really depends on the quality of the polling methodology. High quality polling can be very accurate, though not 100%. You ever notice how they can call districts with high accuracy after only a few percent of the votes are counted? It's because of strong statistical extrapolation techniques.

paresseux · 26-30, M

Truth

paresseux · 26-30, M

My thought is that with this election something could happen so close to voting day that could swing it as well, to say nothing of the actual accuracy of the polls. Also some states are so close that the difference is well within the self admitted margin of error of the poll.

Xuan12 · 31-35, M

@paresseux: Indeed. Even a good poll with +/- 1% error isn't going to tell you much if the race is actually that close.