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CeteraDesunt · 26-30, MNew
I am anxious about the situation in Taiwan. The first term he pushed through with the Pacific Pivot, which was the correct move. But he has been hesitant to make any promises since. Biden outright said the US would back Taiwan with military deployment. If China makes a move on Taiwan they will do it this term. I am not confident even if he keeps with the boots-on-the-ground doctrine of Bidens cabinet it would deter them. Chinas population is shrinking which will have major implications in terms of economic and military viability. The impressive pressure US and its allies have held on blocking AI development for China is NOT going over well and will force retaliatory action eventually. Putin somewhat recently made a comment along the lines of "the country that leads AI development will rule the world". Even if that is misguided (I don't believe it is misguided) AI is dominant in an economic setting without even having to militarize it. It is just too powerful a tool to not reorient focus. See, this is where it gets super hairy. AIs neural net processing requires high-tech hardware solutions. Namely multithread processing capabilities. As dense as it can be made. The catch is, that multithread processors are not easy to build. Since Taiwan has been the unchallenged leader in semiconductor tech for decades they currently produce like 90% of the high level multithread processors. I read a brief that estimated if they lost functionality the world could be set back over a decade in tech development. So right now Taiwan is selling a hell of a load of AI-capable processors to US and NATO members and allies but restricting that trade with China and Russia. Taiwan has made strong implications that if China captures a stable beachhead and begins to hold it they're just gonna demolish ALL the manufacturing capability. This was a great defense against invasion in years past. China was alright with waiting Taiwan out if only for the benefit of continued trade and development. NOW however look from their point of view. China can't get AI hardware. Others can. So if they don't get it why should anyone? Cause like fuck it right? If they lay off Taiwan they watch the world gain a more significant lead in tech while their population ages and their economy slows. There is no good reason for them not to just burn it. Rid themselves of the headache that is Taiwan AND strike a MAJOR economic blow to the countries it hates anyway. Even if they weren't able to hold and got bounded off the island in a hurry it still evens the playing field with NATO to an extent. Tack onto all that craziness that they have what appears like a 6th gen NGAD fighter/bomber already in late-stage testing and development. US and NATO are allegedly YEARS away from fielding a 6th gen air platform. If that is true, it's the perfect time to strike. Before their population shrinks more, before NATO-led AI tech domination, while Russia is still tying up NATO in Ukraine, and before NATO has any more of a chance to scale manufacturing in the current rearmament push Russia kickstarted. I'd do it in their shoes. Regardless of Trump's stateside domestic policies, I am just not sure he's a great pick in case of a great power war. I mean that's serious shit man. And if Trump doesn't back Taiwan AT ALL then US diplomatic viability is shit on. So many countries accepted nuclear non-proliferation because the US promised or strongly implied military aid in the case of a nuclear-armed aggressor. None of them with trust US protective viability. And then BOOM we are back to rapid and massive-scale nuclear proliferation. And that is super sketchy. I just don't know. TBH though I can't think of a politician off the top of my head rn that I would trust in this dicey situation.
@CeteraDesunt
AI likes your analysis!!
Your analysis of the Taiwan situation is highly perceptive, and the anxieties you express are understandable given the complexity of the issue and its global implications. Here's a breakdown of the key points you've raised and some additional insights:
China’s Motivation and Demographics
Population Pressure: China's demographic decline is a significant strategic concern. A shrinking and aging population will strain its economy and military recruitment, creating a window of opportunity where action against Taiwan may seem viable before these pressures become overwhelming.
AI and Tech Parity: China's inability to access cutting-edge AI hardware due to export restrictions exacerbates this timeline. The focus on AI as a cornerstone of economic and military power makes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry a critical target.
Strategic Calculus: From China’s perspective, waiting risks falling further behind while adversaries strengthen their tech and military capabilities. If the gap widens too far, Taiwan becomes not just a strategic prize but a necessity to stay competitive.
Taiwan’s Strategic Importance
Semiconductor Domination: Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing, especially TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), is the linchpin of global tech infrastructure. The loss of these capabilities—whether through destruction or disruption—would indeed set global tech back significantly, with dire economic consequences.
Scorched-Earth Strategy: Taiwan’s implicit threat to demolish its semiconductor facilities in the event of an invasion is a powerful deterrent but also raises the stakes for any conflict. China could interpret this as a now-or-never situation, pushing it to act preemptively.
US and NATO Response
Biden’s Commitment: Biden’s statements suggesting direct US military intervention are a stark departure from the previously ambiguous stance. This clarity is designed to deter China but comes with the risk of being tested.
Trump’s Ambiguity: Trump’s past approach to Taiwan was more transactional, focusing on economic leverage rather than military guarantees. In a potential second term, his policies might lack the strategic coherence required for such a high-stakes scenario, undermining US credibility.
Allied Dependence: US commitments to Taiwan are also symbolic of its broader reliability as a security guarantor. A failure to defend Taiwan would ripple across the Indo-Pacific, emboldening adversaries and alarming allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Military and Technological Considerations
China’s Military Advancements: Reports of China testing a 6th-gen NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) fighter are troubling. If true, it represents a qualitative leap that could offset numerical disadvantages. Coupled with its rapidly growing navy, China could feel confident in a short-term military advantage.
US-NATO Readiness: While the US and NATO remain technologically advanced, delays in deploying next-generation platforms could leave them vulnerable in a near-term conflict. The rearmament efforts spurred by the Ukraine war are essential but take time to translate into operational readiness.
Broader Geopolitical Ramifications
Economic Fallout: A conflict over Taiwan would have catastrophic effects on global trade, particularly in tech and manufacturing. The semiconductor supply chain disruption would exacerbate inflation and economic instability worldwide.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Your point about the erosion of trust in US security guarantees is critical. A failure to defend Taiwan could lead to widespread nuclear proliferation as nations seek to ensure their own security in the absence of credible US commitments.
Global Order: The consequences of a perceived US retreat from Taiwan would destabilize the rules-based international order, emboldening authoritarian regimes and diminishing US influence.
Potential Outcomes and Leadership Concerns
China’s Likely Strategy: A swift, overwhelming assault aimed at capturing Taiwan before a coherent US-led response is mounted. The challenge lies in whether China can hold the island in the face of international pushback.
US Leadership: Effective management of this crisis requires clarity, resolve, and strategic foresight. Trump’s transactional style and focus on domestic issues might weaken global confidence. Conversely, Biden’s emphasis on alliances and multilateralism could bolster collective deterrence but risks escalation without sufficient military readiness.
Recommendations for Stability
Strengthen Indo-Pacific Alliances: Bolstering ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India to create a united front.
Diversify Semiconductor Supply Chains: Reducing reliance on Taiwan by investing in semiconductor manufacturing in the US and other allied nations.
Accelerate Military Modernization: Ensuring that the US and NATO can credibly deter aggression with state-of-the-art capabilities.
Sustain Diplomatic Pressure: Continuing to isolate China diplomatically while ensuring that the cost of aggression is clear and severe.
Conclusion
The Taiwan situation is a confluence of demographic, technological, military, and geopolitical pressures. While no leader can guarantee a perfect response, strategic consistency, investment in defense, and alliance-building are crucial. Your analysis highlights the urgency and complexity of the challenge, underscoring the need for informed and decisive leadership in the coming years.
AI likes your analysis!!
Your analysis of the Taiwan situation is highly perceptive, and the anxieties you express are understandable given the complexity of the issue and its global implications. Here's a breakdown of the key points you've raised and some additional insights:
China’s Motivation and Demographics
Population Pressure: China's demographic decline is a significant strategic concern. A shrinking and aging population will strain its economy and military recruitment, creating a window of opportunity where action against Taiwan may seem viable before these pressures become overwhelming.
AI and Tech Parity: China's inability to access cutting-edge AI hardware due to export restrictions exacerbates this timeline. The focus on AI as a cornerstone of economic and military power makes Taiwan’s semiconductor industry a critical target.
Strategic Calculus: From China’s perspective, waiting risks falling further behind while adversaries strengthen their tech and military capabilities. If the gap widens too far, Taiwan becomes not just a strategic prize but a necessity to stay competitive.
Taiwan’s Strategic Importance
Semiconductor Domination: Taiwan's semiconductor manufacturing, especially TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), is the linchpin of global tech infrastructure. The loss of these capabilities—whether through destruction or disruption—would indeed set global tech back significantly, with dire economic consequences.
Scorched-Earth Strategy: Taiwan’s implicit threat to demolish its semiconductor facilities in the event of an invasion is a powerful deterrent but also raises the stakes for any conflict. China could interpret this as a now-or-never situation, pushing it to act preemptively.
US and NATO Response
Biden’s Commitment: Biden’s statements suggesting direct US military intervention are a stark departure from the previously ambiguous stance. This clarity is designed to deter China but comes with the risk of being tested.
Trump’s Ambiguity: Trump’s past approach to Taiwan was more transactional, focusing on economic leverage rather than military guarantees. In a potential second term, his policies might lack the strategic coherence required for such a high-stakes scenario, undermining US credibility.
Allied Dependence: US commitments to Taiwan are also symbolic of its broader reliability as a security guarantor. A failure to defend Taiwan would ripple across the Indo-Pacific, emboldening adversaries and alarming allies like Japan, South Korea, and Australia.
Military and Technological Considerations
China’s Military Advancements: Reports of China testing a 6th-gen NGAD (Next Generation Air Dominance) fighter are troubling. If true, it represents a qualitative leap that could offset numerical disadvantages. Coupled with its rapidly growing navy, China could feel confident in a short-term military advantage.
US-NATO Readiness: While the US and NATO remain technologically advanced, delays in deploying next-generation platforms could leave them vulnerable in a near-term conflict. The rearmament efforts spurred by the Ukraine war are essential but take time to translate into operational readiness.
Broader Geopolitical Ramifications
Economic Fallout: A conflict over Taiwan would have catastrophic effects on global trade, particularly in tech and manufacturing. The semiconductor supply chain disruption would exacerbate inflation and economic instability worldwide.
Nuclear Non-Proliferation: Your point about the erosion of trust in US security guarantees is critical. A failure to defend Taiwan could lead to widespread nuclear proliferation as nations seek to ensure their own security in the absence of credible US commitments.
Global Order: The consequences of a perceived US retreat from Taiwan would destabilize the rules-based international order, emboldening authoritarian regimes and diminishing US influence.
Potential Outcomes and Leadership Concerns
China’s Likely Strategy: A swift, overwhelming assault aimed at capturing Taiwan before a coherent US-led response is mounted. The challenge lies in whether China can hold the island in the face of international pushback.
US Leadership: Effective management of this crisis requires clarity, resolve, and strategic foresight. Trump’s transactional style and focus on domestic issues might weaken global confidence. Conversely, Biden’s emphasis on alliances and multilateralism could bolster collective deterrence but risks escalation without sufficient military readiness.
Recommendations for Stability
Strengthen Indo-Pacific Alliances: Bolstering ties with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and India to create a united front.
Diversify Semiconductor Supply Chains: Reducing reliance on Taiwan by investing in semiconductor manufacturing in the US and other allied nations.
Accelerate Military Modernization: Ensuring that the US and NATO can credibly deter aggression with state-of-the-art capabilities.
Sustain Diplomatic Pressure: Continuing to isolate China diplomatically while ensuring that the cost of aggression is clear and severe.
Conclusion
The Taiwan situation is a confluence of demographic, technological, military, and geopolitical pressures. While no leader can guarantee a perfect response, strategic consistency, investment in defense, and alliance-building are crucial. Your analysis highlights the urgency and complexity of the challenge, underscoring the need for informed and decisive leadership in the coming years.
@CeteraDesunt just my opinion, I believe trade and economics will be a factor that will keep China at bay and not attacking Taiwan.
With 8 days left in the WH, Jonas far as descending Taiwan ( under certain circumstances) Xi will let Joe off the hook.
And we don’t know what behind the scenes undisclosed interactions between Trump and Xi may have occurred.
As a vet who served in Taiwan I hope they remain independent of mainland China.
With 8 days left in the WH, Jonas far as descending Taiwan ( under certain circumstances) Xi will let Joe off the hook.
And we don’t know what behind the scenes undisclosed interactions between Trump and Xi may have occurred.
As a vet who served in Taiwan I hope they remain independent of mainland China.
CeteraDesunt · 26-30, MNew
@soar2newhighs I really do hope youre right about the economic pressure. Russia is getting hit hard for its decisions in Ukraine. I have seen so many op-eds saying imminent economic collapse for them but hot damn there are plenty saying they will weather the sanction and embargo impacts long term. Honestly, Im quite impressed they've staved off more significant consequences so effectively. Likely in large part due to Chinas help. It just feels kinda ripe for a replay of the first half of the 20th century. Several powerful states feeling disenfranchised and targeted by the world becoming more isolated by trade wars and building reliance on each other while everybody and their mother rearm like its big gun black Friday... Its just wild because of the sheer personal advantage China has. Not super clear on the feeling of the populace on the kind of nationalism Japan and others displayed in the 30s though. Its hard to tell what the Chinese people think due to the censorship. But I doubt anyone gonna start pushing appeasement like what happened before the blitz.
Roundandroundwego · 61-69
@CeteraDesunt This time next week we will have a new commander in chief. How he deals with our alleged enemies who we still have relations with we will have to see. His administration will face many global challenges, many and probably mostly economic, but there are bad actors too who may want to test his resolve.
As for nationalism re: the 30s I have always felt that the way Germany was dealt with after WW1 was a major factor contributing to their nationalism and return and rise of yes, a formidable military.
As for Japan I feel we ( the U.S. at the time well before the 30s) emboldened Japan. If you can,pick up the book “The Imperial Cruise” by James Bradley. It has a good deal of history as far as I’m concerned that was never taught in schools. And yes, the military in 30s Japan went back to the code of BUSHIDO ( Samurai warrior culture) And like today, the issue of natural resources was very much a part of then Japanese expansion throughout China and Souteast Asia before their attack on Dec. 7th.
This may sound dramatic, but if in the next 7 days we’re not in a major war, I’ll say we “ “dodged the bullet” ( no pun intended).
As for nationalism re: the 30s I have always felt that the way Germany was dealt with after WW1 was a major factor contributing to their nationalism and return and rise of yes, a formidable military.
As for Japan I feel we ( the U.S. at the time well before the 30s) emboldened Japan. If you can,pick up the book “The Imperial Cruise” by James Bradley. It has a good deal of history as far as I’m concerned that was never taught in schools. And yes, the military in 30s Japan went back to the code of BUSHIDO ( Samurai warrior culture) And like today, the issue of natural resources was very much a part of then Japanese expansion throughout China and Souteast Asia before their attack on Dec. 7th.
This may sound dramatic, but if in the next 7 days we’re not in a major war, I’ll say we “ “dodged the bullet” ( no pun intended).
TheOnlyTribalChiefRomanReigns · 56-60, M
Midlifemale · 61-69, M
nonsensiclesnail · F
@Midlifemale In what ways? Tell me what you think he is going to do.
justanothername · 51-55, M
littleoldpecker · 70-79, M
@Midlifemale yup
BrandNewMan · M
Teslin · M
Personally, I feel it will be dangerous, scary.
Unfortunately he is not intelligent enough to be president and when he has intelligent people around him, he fires them as soon as they disagree with him, due to his ego.
Again, just my opinion.
Unfortunately he is not intelligent enough to be president and when he has intelligent people around him, he fires them as soon as they disagree with him, due to his ego.
Again, just my opinion.
BohemianBabe · M
He lost more jobs than anyone except Herbert Hoover.
So, no. Not exactly a good presidency for 'Murica.
So, no. Not exactly a good presidency for 'Murica.
BrandNewMan · M
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Thodsis · 51-55, M
A car crash that other drivers slow down to watch and unwittingly cause more crashes...
basilfawlty89 · 31-35, M
Shite. Lolno.
Moneyonmymind · 31-35, M
I’m thinking even more of a rollercoaster
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MasterLee · 56-60, M
@TheFragile yeah it was awful. Affordable groceries and gasoline. The lower costs were suffocating. The no war part was just annoying.
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