Okay, let’s make this simple

Poll - Total Votes: 15

Yes

You can only vote on one answer.

Forget for a moment all the supposed liabilities of all the other potential candidates.

Does Biden stand a decent chance of beating Trump this fall?

If yes I would love some reassurance and an explanation of what exactly is likely to change the trajectory of this race, because, correct me if I’m wrong, if the race were held next Tuesday Biden would almost certainly lose. Maybe not even “almost” certainly.

If no then all the risks associated with a plan for senior members of the Democratic Party to convince Biden to drop out of the campaign are probably worthwhile. If Biden most likely can’t win, then we’ve really got nothing to lose and everything to gain by trying to run someone else.

So, to repeat the question, does Biden stand a decent chance of beating Trump this November?

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dancingtongue · 80-89, M

1. The country remains pretty evenly divided on an electoral vote basis, with only a handful of swing states where a single debate four months in advance will necessarily have that lasting an impact in our attention-span deficit society.

2. A lot can happen in four months: events affecting either or both candidates, the economy, the political landscape, geopolitical events. I wouldn't be surprised if more "third party" candidates besides RFK, Jr., gain traction and from whom they draw votes.

3. It will come down to which party is able to get out the vote despite the general apathy of most people in those swing states. We tend to forget that Hillary lost because she couldn't get the Obama-Biden voters to vote in those swing states, which allowed Trump to take them while she still carried the popular vote nationally. Will Biden's poor performance and age issues or Trump's continued legal and character issues or third party candidates have the most impact on suppressing the vote in those swing states? Will the Republican and Trump's belated acceptance of mail-in balloting overcome their opposition that hurt them so badly in 2020?

In short, neither has yet even been nominated by their party conventions, VP candidates are still up in the air. Reagan and Obama both had bad performances in their first debates as sitting Presidents. Both bounced back.