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Nate Silver says the race for president “is not a toss-up”

Trump has about a 60% chance of winning.
Northwest · M
He says his model predicts Convicted Felon Trump is likely to win the electoral college, but lose the popular vote. The margin of error still makes it a toss up.
Illyria · M
Nate Silver also said Hillary had a 95% chance of winning.
Theyitis · 36-40, M
@Illyria That’s even worse for Biden then, because the polls have a history of underestimating Trump’s support.
RedBaron · M
Yesterday’s news. Why are you regurgitating it?
Illyria · M
@RedBaron But they were both wrong about Trump in 2016.
RedBaron · M
@Illyria Which is irrelevant 8 years later.
RedBaron · M
@Theyitis Actually, his job approval numbers are about where Trump’s were at this point in 2020.
smiler2012 · 56-60
@Theyitis 🤔i assume this silver must be thick or on something when he makes such a comment😆 does he not understand the conception of the outcome from spinning a coin lol
RedBaron · M
@smiler2012 Try to be better informed.

“This silver” says more about your lack of credibility and objectivity than about his.

You not liking the prediction doesn’t invalidate Silver’s methodology. It’s not just about “spinning a coin.”

https://www.natesilver.net/p/the-presidential-election-isnt-a

If you consider yourself to be serious about politics and elections, which I believe you do, you should be familiar with these websites:

natesilver.net
fivethirtyeight.com
realclearpolitics.com
smiler2012 · 56-60
@RedBaron please get a sense of humour this was meant more tongue in cheek than serious i was making more of a joke than anything else
Polls are made by the Devil to give you anxiety.
Biden certainly sets a low bar.

 
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