Nate Silver says the race for president “is not a toss-up”

@RedBaron I sense a bit of fear creeping in about how bad Trump is likely to perform tonight. I think he wants “reassurance” that Trump will win, so he can sleep well. 😴

@SW-User I don’t know. The election won’t be decided tonight anyway.

Unfortunately for the rest of us, Silver and fivethirtyeight.com are quite credible and their modeling has been accurate going back to 2012.

@SW-User I’m a Democrat. I want all the other Democrats making bullish predictions about November to reassure me that Biden’s situation is not grim. He’s had historically low job approval numbers for most of his term, he’s polling ten points worse now than he did this time four years ago (when he finished just 45,000 strategically placed votes from losing), and he’s likely to perform better in the popular vote than in the electoral college. Both candidates are known quantities this time, which will have the effect of making it more difficult to change voters’ minds. I’m afraid Democrats are sleepwalking to a big defeat this November and the nation will pay an epic price for it.

@Theyitis If you want a bullish prediction, look to Professor Allan Lichtmann who's been right about every presidential election since Reagan, including Trump (but tbf not Bush in 2000). His model predicts Biden.

@RedBaron But they were both wrong about Trump in 2016.

@SW-User Which is irrelevant 8 years later.

@Theyitis Actually, his job approval numbers are about where Trump’s were at this point in 2020.