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4meAndyou so to list out some of the thoughts I had about what u mentioned:
1. I admit I went a bit overboard when I mentioned dying but infact in 2025 usa gdp growth was shallower than expected rate, one due to govt shutdown, however some growth triggers which did manage to keep the growth at decent levels were a bit hollow cause
1a. "Buying Ahead" of Tariffs: Both businesses and consumers front-loaded their purchases to avoid anticipated price increases from new trade policies. Which again is a fallout of tarrifs.
1b. AI Investment Boom: Record-level investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure. This is another story of making a capital loop showing money as topline growth in another company therz alot of videos about it which explains somet like following
The Nvidia-OpenAI-Oracle Loop: Nvidia invested $100 billion in OpenAI; OpenAI then committed $300 billion to Oracle for compute power; and Oracle, in turn, used that capital to buy $40 billion in chips from Nvidia.
The Microsoft-OpenAI Connection: Critics note that of Microsoft’s reported $13 billion in AI revenue, roughly $10 billion reportedly comes from reselling Azure cloud services back to OpenAI at break-even prices, effectively looping the capital. It's called
Venture Capital "Round-tripping": A significant portion of AI-specific revenue for cloud providers like Amazon (AWS) comes from startups that Amazon itself funded through its own venture arm.
1c. Strong Exports: Exports surged by 8.8%–9.6% in Q3, providing a major boost before the trade disruptions that occurred later in the year. So infact exports were doing good as such before traffis. Infact it may lead to Shrinking Volume in exports as the "frontloading" effect of trying to beat tariff deadlines fades. Plus the fact that Static Trade Deficit Despite the highest tariffs in 90 years, remained virtually unchanged in 2025 (declining only 0.2%),
proving that tariffs did not effectively "rebalance" trade as intended.
1d. Inflation is going to increase because of war and S&P is already down by 7% cause of the war and if war goes on with 2 weeks it will be back to where it was when Trump took the office in Jan 25. It will bounce back again that's another thing 😅 cause stock market always does.
So effectively all the steps Administration took has hampered the economy in the short run so my premise is war is supposed to help it in long run by causing rift in global economy, attack on iran oil infra at South Pars gas field—the world’s largest, which provides up to 70% of Iran's gas production- have caused significant disruptions, prompting oil prices to surge over $100-$110 per barrel.
It has cause some long-Term Damage could take 3 to 5 years to become fully operational again, creating a prolonged supply threat.
Impact are predicted could reduce 2026 global GDP growth by 0.3%. But will help US cause they are not dependent on Iran for energy or strait of hormuz for that matter.
2. Regarding Iran not having nuclear weapons, makes sense,
radical Islamists shall never have WMD as who knw they may smuggle it to religious terrorist which are all rogue can lead to disaster
however Iran as a country I don't suppose will get into escalation of launching a Nuke on Any country without 100% assuring their complete destruction. It's not an easy decision to N bomb any other country it's almost assured mutual destruction.
3. Venezuela is a sovereign country recognised under International laws, just cause they won't confront US doesn't mean we can capture their president. There are diplomatic channels for that, plus who they supply oil to is their policy, which any country wud decide keeping their personal interest in site. Cause otherwise by that standard even Russias war on Ukraine is just cause they didn want Ukraine to join NATO for their personal interest and safety. For drug smuggling securing borders and find moles within the system is way to go.
4. Again it's business every country will look to benefit their own and break the monopoly be it trade or currency nothing to Judge there, US or any other.
Regarding weak dollar, US intend to weaken it, A weaker dollar makes U.S. exports more competitive but raises costs for Americans traveling abroad and increases import prices(which was also the agenda of all the tarrifs). Also it devalues the currency against gold, and it helps with debt repayment which is in dollars. So BRICS pumping gold up, selling dollar has infact helped US debt effectively reducing it. Which is also achieved by increasing inflation and devaluing currency.
5. The damage which has happened will take some time to recover probably years, yes the oil prices will reduce but probably the source will become different and relatively higher which will benefit energy dominated gdp of US which is my initial premise. The reluctance to join the war is simple, they want de escalation, already the energy they were importing from Russia has dropped from 45% to merely 14%. With Iran war raised the cost to additional 60%. They want end of it not force open another front where when Iran feels sided will become unrestricted and cause severe damage to energy infra will spiral the whole world down with it, probably won't directly hit US much cause of energy independence plus venezuela oil.
