Nope. Even their top military commander admitted as much in a recent interview. It will be just another "wonder weapon" out of a long line of disappointments.
They are not even modern. People forget the F-16 is a 50 year old aircraft design.
And from the countries they are sourced from you are looking at As and Bs or Block 15 or Block 20s.
So in many cases updates that are 40 to 30 years old.
They might do well against the old vanilla SU-27s or Mig 29s of the Ukrainian airforce but the Russian airforce has long since modernized.
They also are not in any numbers that matter.
Plus they don't have the pilots. One of the training grounds is already shutting down because Denmark is switching to F 35s and have trained a grand total of about 20 Ukrainian pilots.
Best estimates I can find is they will be able to field at best a single full strength squadron.
On top of that like most propaganda weapons like the F-16 and the M-1 tank Russia is also going to be issuing bounties on them. So it doesn't look like it will matter much.
And if it ends up like the Leopard tanks any damaged aircraft will need to be shipped out of country for repairs because they have no support infrastructure.
And since the NATO tank shops are taking 9 months to repair 2 tanks I don't feel confident that they would be doing aircraft repairs any faster.
Plus they will be forced to keep them in country and therefore in range of Russian attacks because Russia has made it clear that any country that lets them fly sorties out of their country will be bombed and Romania seems to have already said nope on that one.
Also unlike soviet designs American aircraft need basically pristine runways to operate out of. Probably because the US has never had an airfield in enemy range since Korea.
A Mig 29 can take off from a farmer's field. Try that with an F 16 and you will risk destroying the one engine it has.
Also I remember reading years ago Poland pulled theirs from front line service and went back to the MIG 29 as their primary fighter just because of the maintenance cost ( both money and maintenance hours).
It is a fine aircraft if you have runways well outside the battlespace and billions to flush down the toilet.
The Russians are modifying missiles and "shaheeds" in anticipation of the appearance of F-16s at Ukrainian airfields. Ukraine is also making serious preparations to receive fighters, so a very serious confrontation lies ahead.
Aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap spoke about this on the air of the telethon. "The Ha-101 has already passed the fourth level of modification. That is, they have reduced the range, increased the warhead and equipped them with cluster munitions. They have added a system against electronic warfare and thermal interference!" he emphasized.
Krivolap added that Ukraine is also preparing to receive F-16 aircraft, expecting air defense systems and preparing infrastructure. "When all this comes together in time, then we will see and be participants in this very serious confrontation," he emphasized.
According to the aviation expert, even taking into account combat experience, after undergoing special training on the F-16, Ukrainian pilots will not be able to immediately reach the level of instructors. "Americans have spent their entire lives in the cockpit of an F-16. We will have combat experience, but they are like fish in their own aquarium," he noted.
The expert added that there is also no well-established system of all interaction processes between pilots and technicians, information systems and air defense on the ground. Everything will be worked out when the first F-16 aircraft begin work. "At least six of these machines, so that they begin to work out all these procedures," Krivolap stated.
Earlier, The New York Times wrote that Ukraine is one step away from deploying the first "birds", but because of this, the Russian invaders may intensify strikes on the country's military airfields.
Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrsky noted that American fighters will help the defenders of Ukraine, but they will have certain limitations at the front.
Let us recall that Romania will pay for the costs of training and education of Ukrainian pilots on F-16 fighters at its military airbase.
Yes, and the F-16s will face attrition. The whole point of a F-16 in today's battlefield is it being used in co junction with the F-35.
We have a special sensor pod that attaches to the F-16 that allows it to communicate to the F-35, seeing through it's superior sensors, and the F-35 can communicate much better with satellite and naval ships and ground bases.
If Ukraine loses all it's summer deploying F-16s in a full hearted summer offensive, it will be much, much harder to upgrade them in a few years with the pods (security issues in/with the ukrainian army currently prevents this).
We would have to come up with next F-16s.
Right now, Russia's winning with no clear oath to victory for Ukraine. Russia can sustain it's meat wave losses and it keeps slowly opening up new fronts, and it sustains those too. Come spring another will open up. Eventually Ukrainians will lose the ability to hold on all fronts and keep a strategic reserve to reinforce weak positions. It is nearly there.
Thats why Ukraine is suddenky supporting a ceasefire. They need to regroup, fortify and free up military forces during a few years of truce. Russia will launch a massive tet offensive while these peace negotations are being made in order to improve their bargaining position in peace talks. It will look like hell. But they won't nuke. They already won.
Half a dozen F16s won’t have a significant impact on the outcome of the war, it will be a useful tool that the Russian military will be aggressively targeting, Ukraine will probably deploy them in a precise manner and in relatively safe combat environments. Losses are inevitable but the longer they remain in service the better it will be for morale and propaganda purposes.
