CDC estimates 10,000 fewer legal abortions since Dobbs ruling
Since June, thousands of Americans have crossed state lines seeking abortion, like a pressure wave spreading out from a blast zone. A data set shared exclusively with FiveThirtyEight shows that in the two months after the Supreme Court decision, there were 10,570 fewer abortions as compared to pre-Dobbs estimates. That figure is a net, counting both declines in some states and increases in others, and it shows how a few states are absorbing some — but not all — of the demand for abortions in states where it’s now banned.
That topline number conceals an enormous amount of fluctuation between states. In all states that saw declines in their abortion numbers — which include the 15 states in which abortion was banned or severely limited over the summer — the number of abortions fell by about 22,000.1 Some of those women appear to have traveled out of state, because in other states, the number of abortions rose by an aggregate of about 12,000.
A likely consequence of longer wait times and travel distances is more abortions later in pregnancy. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that only 7.7 percent of all abortions happen between the 14th and 20th week of pregnancy. But between 20 and 30 percent of current patients are in the second trimester at Whole Woman's Health of Minnesota, a clinic located in a state where abortion is legal until the point of fetal viability around 25 weeks, according to Sean Mehl, Whole Woman's assistant director of clinical services.
Some women may also be getting abortions without any clinic or doctor being involved — although those numbers are hard to track. The #WeCount data counts only legal abortions, which means it’s almost certainly underestimating the total number. Even before Dobbs, activist groups and online pharmacies were providing abortion pills directly to consumers through the mail. By July, Mexican activists were already reporting that they were inundated with requests for abortion pills from women all over the U.S.
But it’s also likely that some people who might have gotten an abortion in the pre-Dobbs era are simply carrying their pregnancies to term. And while that is a victory for anti-abortion advocates, the #WeCount researchers noted that there is substantial evidence that being denied a wanted abortion puts people at an increased risk of poverty, physical abuse and certain health problems. They’re also keeping an eye on whether maternal and infant mortality will increase in states with abortion bans — particularly since those states tend to have higher-than-average rates of deaths from pregnancy complications.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/overturning-roe-has-meant-at-least-10000-fewer-legal-abortions/
That topline number conceals an enormous amount of fluctuation between states. In all states that saw declines in their abortion numbers — which include the 15 states in which abortion was banned or severely limited over the summer — the number of abortions fell by about 22,000.1 Some of those women appear to have traveled out of state, because in other states, the number of abortions rose by an aggregate of about 12,000.
A likely consequence of longer wait times and travel distances is more abortions later in pregnancy. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that only 7.7 percent of all abortions happen between the 14th and 20th week of pregnancy. But between 20 and 30 percent of current patients are in the second trimester at Whole Woman's Health of Minnesota, a clinic located in a state where abortion is legal until the point of fetal viability around 25 weeks, according to Sean Mehl, Whole Woman's assistant director of clinical services.
Some women may also be getting abortions without any clinic or doctor being involved — although those numbers are hard to track. The #WeCount data counts only legal abortions, which means it’s almost certainly underestimating the total number. Even before Dobbs, activist groups and online pharmacies were providing abortion pills directly to consumers through the mail. By July, Mexican activists were already reporting that they were inundated with requests for abortion pills from women all over the U.S.
But it’s also likely that some people who might have gotten an abortion in the pre-Dobbs era are simply carrying their pregnancies to term. And while that is a victory for anti-abortion advocates, the #WeCount researchers noted that there is substantial evidence that being denied a wanted abortion puts people at an increased risk of poverty, physical abuse and certain health problems. They’re also keeping an eye on whether maternal and infant mortality will increase in states with abortion bans — particularly since those states tend to have higher-than-average rates of deaths from pregnancy complications.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/overturning-roe-has-meant-at-least-10000-fewer-legal-abortions/
