Ukraine War

At long last the I.C.C has issued an arrest warrant for Putin for crimes against humanity . So he is now a wanted man . Hopefully this will put the fear of god up other russian soldiers that if their leader can be arrested and tried for war crimes then they are just as much at risk of the same thing happening to them . Now no matter what happens Putin will not remain in power if the war ends . He is facing the rest of his life behind bars . He may say he doesnt recognise the I.C.C but whether he does or doesnt will make no difference when he is arrested tried and found guilty .

ArishMell · 70-79, M

I doubt anyone in the I.C.C. thinks he will be easily arrested and taken to the Hague. Russia certainly won't extradite him.

Although that has happened to other rulers, Putin is in a far stronger position than they were. So it might be more symbolic than becoming reality. However it may be easier to take in some of his military commanders, against whom there are already long lists of charges, and we can only hope they are.

I don't know how the charge has been reported to the Russian people, if at all. It might be withheld as much as possible; with what does leak through being dismissed officially as "rumours" or "NATO propaganda" or the like.

We know Moscow has already reacted with utter and rather offensive contempt, to the outside world, but how does a dictator tell his subjects he's been charged with war-crimes when he has banned calling it a "war" and convinced most of them that he is only staging a "special military operation" to (among other claims) "protect the motherland"? It may make his hold over them rather shakier.

The bigger question is what might happen after the war, depending on its outcome. If he loses power, will it create a very dangerous power vacuum? Or have he and his closest top brass already planned the eventual hand-over? Would his replacement be even worse? Would the Wagner Group stage a coup? If I were Vladimir Putin I would be very wary of them, and if they take over, might that be a case of God help the ordinary Russians?

It is notable that Russia, like China, has never known democracy. It's had brief glimpses of reform, under Tsar Nicholas II then after the USSR collapsed, but neither lasted long.

fanuc2013 · 51-55, F

@ArishMell You are right, it is largely symbolic. Although it might have the effect of keeping him in Russia, in case he has to escape a coup, if that ever happens

ArishMell · 70-79, M

@fanuc2013 I am writing this after hearing part of an explanation of the legal aspects, on the radio.

The charge is of just one of many possible, and is of illegally deporting thousands of Ukrainian children to Russia.

Putin would be arrested if he sets foot in any of the over-100 countries that are I.C.C. signatories.

The charge against him remains until he is brought to trial, so effectively he is a crime suspect for life if he either stays in Russia or runs to a non-I.C.C. haven.

"Suspect" only, of course, until tried. Although that seems strange in such a blatant case, it is a vital point of law that must be upheld and seen to be upheld.

These apply irrespective of any peace negotiations or the eventual result of the war and its ending.

He could in theory at least flee to a non-I.C.C. country, assuming he finds one that would accept him of course. These include his own, the Russian Federation, and surprisingly and rather puzzlingly perhaps, the United States of America.