Coronavirus. Please check my maths

This is likely a statistical model based on worse case scenarios. The issue is that the health care system is not designed for this kind of volume. In addition, we don't have a discernible treatment plan.

So, the objective is to not overwhelm our health care system, and buy time to find a course of treatment so severe cases don't become critical cases. Vaccines are likely even further out (if it happens at all).

[quote]We know that 1.5 % of the people who get the virus die. [/quote]
This is incorrect. Science knows that not all cases are diagnosed and accounted for. They compare it to an iceberg. The tip you see is people that are confirmed cases. What's unknown is the much larger portion that gets a mild case and never gets tested.

So I've just read the story of the first lady who died of this in Ireland, she hadn't left her home since February, she'd only been in contact with 5 people, 3 carers and 2 family members, they all tested negative, but yet she died, and what a horrible death it was😩

I hate the word experts..
What you mean is stoolies who read a script for a pay cheque..

Sounds way too high. The only Covid-19 related deaths I have heard of were the malnourished or those with very weak immune systems for other reasons. The statistics need to be reduced to how many have weak immune systems that contract the virus, not everyone whop gets it. Most people who contract it only suffer a persistent sore throat for a couple of days and a mild head cold after that. this describes what I had perfectly and was over it in just over a week. And I am very malnourished being unable to work in order to afford to live. Rent and utilities take nearly all my income. I need internet to research my condition and phone in case of paralysis- to call 911 by voice. I depend on rationing what little food (mostly grains) from the food banks. I do not get any medications since none are covered under our "free healthcare". But I also wonder if prescription medications could make the virus much worse, or at least many medications weaken the immune system. I can only use marijuana for my condition, everything else for pain harms my bones instead of helping them.

I think thousands will die not millions!

The maths make sense. What's hard to know at the moment is the true death rate. It all depends how many people there are with no or mild symptoms that don't get recorded in the cases.

It's not a bad guess. Look at the stats for the 1918 Spanish Flu

[b][i][c=#008099]The Spanish flu, also known as the 1918 flu pandemic,[1] was an unusually deadly influenza pandemic. Lasting from January 1918 through December 1920, it infected 500 million people—about a quarter of the world's population.[2] The death toll is estimated to have been anywhere from 17 million[3] to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history.[4][5][/c][/i][/b]

Who really knows?

The so called "experts" of statistical probability aren't very good at their jobs...

as evidenced by 2016 election prediction polls for example... 🤣

Even meteorology/weather prediction, as horrendously inaccurate as it is, is correct more often... 🤔

I saw an interview with the US surgeon general last night.
He said in South Korea,96% of the sick had the flu. The other 4% had Coronavirus. Most of those lived.

I think the percentage of the population getting it will be much lower (20% at most). The percentage of people infected who die will be higher (2.0% to 3.5%).

The fundamental question is how soon will there be a vaccine available. All we can do at the moment is decrease the infection rate. Your numbers do not include a temporal profile.

If the Virus was left unchecked, ie; no measures taken, then the figure would be somewhere around that total.

THAT COULD BE. Look at the previous pendemic just to say.

https://medium.com/six-four-six-nine/evidence-over-hysteria-covid-19-1b767def5894

Worth the time to read.

😧😦😮😯😲😳😬🙅