How can you start a conversation with a sibling who seems stuck in life about their future without causing defensiveness or conflict?

What are some jaw-dropping stories about people underestimating someone and getting a big surprise? Did justice prevail in the end?
Can it be true that the real ugliness has nothing to do with appearance, it lives in the way someone lies without flinching, manipulated without shame and hurts others without a single trace of remorse?