Have you ever heard a weather forecast of 100% chance of rain?
I heard this for the first time this week. Tuesday was sunny, but the weather forecaster said that the forecast for Wednesday was 100% chance of rain. Sure enough, it rained on Wednesday from morning to early evening. Then on Thursday it was sunny again, the sun was out again. If the approaching front is large enough in width, then even if it swerves a little, it’s not going to miss. And if it’s deep enough, then even if it slows or accelerates, it will rain on that particular day. So 100% chance. I live a little inland in the mid-atlantic, so everytime a hurricane or tropical storm comes up the coast, it often covers a HUUUUGE swatch of territory and you can bet your bottom dollar that it’s going to rain. The only question is how hard and how long.
Frequently. Remember that 100% chance doesn’t mean it will rain. It means that the atmospheric conditions (temp, humidity) match the historical record that has previously led to rain.
I haven’t seen a forecast here giving a 100% chance of rain. The most the weather service will commit to is a greater than 95% chance of rain and the least is a less than 5% chance.
I heard somewhere that weathermen give a higher probability of inclement weather than they actually calculate, due to people’s shaky concept of probability. If there is a 10% chance of rain and 10% is forecasted then people tend to get upset when it is one of those one in ten days that it rains. Still, if you say 100% chance of rain, you have to be pretty certain that it is going to rain. Yes. This is not uncommon and they’re not wrong with the forecast when this happens. That being said, they are wrong most of the time. Last time was a tropical storm that covered several hundred miles.
Yeah sure, then it would end up being sunny. So I’m not complaining. I have no complaints to make about the weather. All the time here, generally a day or two out and you can usually see the rain coming on the radar.
Yes…I live in the southeast & it is fairly normal to hear such a forecast & they are often correct and right on the money!
Frequently. Remember that 100% chance doesn’t mean it will rain. It means that the atmospheric conditions (temp, humidity) match the historical record that has previously led to rain.
I haven’t seen a forecast here giving a 100% chance of rain. The most the weather service will commit to is a greater than 95% chance of rain and the least is a less than 5% chance.
I heard somewhere that weathermen give a higher probability of inclement weather than they actually calculate, due to people’s shaky concept of probability. If there is a 10% chance of rain and 10% is forecasted then people tend to get upset when it is one of those one in ten days that it rains. Still, if you say 100% chance of rain, you have to be pretty certain that it is going to rain. Yes. This is not uncommon and they’re not wrong with the forecast when this happens. That being said, they are wrong most of the time. Last time was a tropical storm that covered several hundred miles.
Yeah sure, then it would end up being sunny. So I’m not complaining. I have no complaints to make about the weather. All the time here, generally a day or two out and you can usually see the rain coming on the radar.
Yes…I live in the southeast & it is fairly normal to hear such a forecast & they are often correct and right on the money!
