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I Admire Common Sense

I get deeply frustrated by wannabe statisticians who in the current pandemic would have us believe you are unlikely to contract the Covid-19 virus. Some would try to pedal statistics to have us believe there is an infection rate of under 10%. I wish it were true. To be fair, in less populated and self-controlling areas, this statistic might be true. But in densely populated areas, such as vibrant cities, to suggest the rate of infection is 6-9% is unhelpful to say the least. It is not alarmist to share with you, in case you didn’t already know (which most common sense minded people already do) that if you come into close contact with anyone carrying the virus, the risk of transfer is high. Even if they are asymptomatic.

I invite any such relaying “statistician” to contact the relatives of the late occupants and staff of Holyoke Soldiers Medical Center in Massachusetts and pedal their inane statistics. Unfortunately, the worn adage “There are lies, damn lies, and there are statistics” needs to be dusted off and shoved under some noses. But, they won’t listen, will they? No. Unfortunately not.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/holyoke-soldiers-home-massachusetts-veterans-coronavirus-deaths/2020/04/10/8912d062-7b3d-11ea-9bee-c5bf9d2e3288_story.html
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Elessar · 26-30, M
There is a study published from the University of Padua, that surveyed the population of the first village/town to see the first confirmed infection, both at the beginning of the outbreak (and their local "red-zone") and 15 days later, which has been extensively used over here to plan the lockdown policies at least regionally, and estimate both the infection rate, modes and distribution of severe cases. The sample isn't the biggest (around 3000, i.e. the inhabitants of the Vo' municipality), but here you go:

[u]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20053157v1.full.pdf[/u]

(They were among the first to establish asymptomatic carriers can be spreaders when the WHO still insisted on testing only symptomatic cases)
4meAndyou · F
@Elessar I'm not certain I understand the data...but we have used data from around the world to try to learn about the virus, including the fact that every asymptomatic carrier will infect at least 2.5 others.