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I can foresee another COVID-19 outbreak in September when parents are forced to send their children back to school. With the threat of fines for keeping children off school, it's likely that impoverished parents will send their children to school even if they show symptoms of COVID-19. Overcrowded schools do not have the space to even allow for social distancing, even at just 1 metre, never mind enforcing it. I doubt they'll have the facilities to implement other precautions either. It's a recipe for disaster.
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helenS · 36-40, F
Yes, and the children will spread the disease. 😐️
SW-User
@helenS the research currently doesn't support that hypothesis

[quote][b]What role do children play in transmission?[/b]
The fact that children are less likely to show symptoms when infected with SARS-CoV-2 has raised concerns that they may be responsible for covert virus transmission, though there is little direct evidence to suggest that asymptomatic children are playing a major role in spreading the disease. One study which analysed the source of 31 household clusters of COVID-19 in China, Singapore, South Korea, Japan, and Iran found that children were the source of infection in just three of these cases.[13] The China/WHO joint commission, a panel of international experts which investigated the initial COVID-19 outbreak in China, found, by contact tracing, no cases where transmission occurred from a child to an adult.[14] Possibly, the early closure of schools, combined with children’s apparent reduced susceptibility to infection, may have limited transmission from children. However, the absence of coughing in milder or asymptomatic cases may reduce transmission of the virus. Further studies are needed to test this idea.

Although the role children play in transmitting the virus is unclear, [u]evidence consistently demonstrates that children are less likely than adults to acquire infection, and less likely to bring infections into households.[/u][10] [/quote]

https://coronavirusexplained.ukri.org/en/article/und0008/
helenS · 36-40, F
@SW-User These are interesting and important findings. I had no idea these studies exist. Thank you very much. 🌸
Sharon · F
@helenS Yes, I think that's highly likely.
helenS · 36-40, F
@Sharon Please read the quotation Nunos50 posted below my comment. Surprising. Please note that Nunos is a credible and honest person who does not spread fake news.
SW-User
@helenS it is interesting it is the opposite of flu virus transmissions which are often spread widely by children.
Sharon · F
@helenS From the quote posted by @SW-User -
[quote]Possibly, the early closure of schools, combined with children’s apparent reduced susceptibility to infection, may have limited transmission from children.[/quote]

Re-opening schools could reverse that. I'm not saying it will because (again from that quote) - [quote]the role children play in transmitting the virus is unclear[/quote]

It seem to me HMG isn't thinking things through.
SW-User
@Sharon but you avoid the second and most important part of that sentence...

[quote]Although the role children play in transmitting the virus is unclear, [u]evidence consistently demonstrates that children are less likely than adults to acquire infection, and less likely to bring infections into households.[/u][10][/quote]

10 is Boast A, Munro A, Goldstein H. An evidence summary of Paediatric COVID-19 literature. Don't Forget the Bubbles. 2020 Apr. DOI: 10.31440/DFTB.24063.
SW-User
The latest updated transmission summary from that (still ongoing) research.


[quote][b]Transmission[/b]
Precise details regarding paediatric transmission are still being ascertained, however important trends are emerging. Low case numbers in children suggest a more limited role than was initially feared. Contact tracing data from Asia, the USA, Europe and Israel have all demonstrated a significantly lower attack rate in children than adults, including testing of asymptomatic household contacts on both PCR and serology. Coupled with low case numbers would suggest that children are less likely to acquire the disease. The role of children in passing the disease to others is unknown, in particular given unknown numbers of asymptomatic cases. Notably, the China/WHO joint commission could not recall episodes during contact tracing where transmission occurred from a child to an adult. Studies of multiple family clusters have revealed children were unlikely to be the index case, in Guangzhou, China, Israel, the USA, Switzerland and internationally. Limited data on positive cases in schools have not demonstrated significant transmission, except within adolescent populations. Studies of younger children in schools have found low rates of transmission, but with very low case numbers.

Several studies have now shown that SARS-CoV-2 can be detected by PCR in the stool of affected children for several weeks after symptoms have resolved. Studies have confirmed there can also be live virus found in the stool of infected individuals. How much virus is present, and the extent to which faecal-oral transmission may be possible is yet to be confirmed. [/quote]
Sharon · F
@SW-User [quote]but you avoid the second and most important part of that sentence[/quote]

That second part appears to contradict the first.
SW-User
@Sharon you ever worked in science research? To say the second part is huge fir a scientist and we're back to you can't wait 3 years for clear results when you have millions dead.
Sharon · F
@SW-User [quote]you ever worked in science research?[/quote]
Yes, I have an MSc in physics. Scientists are careful when expressing findings, unlike newpapers which routinely say - "scientist have proven..." :(
SW-User
@Sharon so you'll know then more than me (geography a level) that to state [quote]evidence consistently demonstrates that children are less likely than adults to acquire infection, and less likely to bring infections into households [/quote] puts all their reputation on that statement. All their competitors would revel in shooting that assertion down in flames. So you only publish when you're sure you can prove your assertion.
Sharon · F
@SW-User I'm sure they have the data to back up what they say but note the caution with which they say it.