Northwest · M
Public pressure, or lack thereof is the real issue. Man-made irreversible weather change is presented in terms of hard deadlines/dates, allows the Trumps of the world to push their warped agendas.
"drill baby drill" becomes a battle cry, when Gore's doom and gloom runs hard into snow storms in the South.
Not sure how to present the urgency in terms morns might respond to, but not sure even that could work. For Trump, if crops fail in parts of the US, he will simply invade another country, and strip it for resources, and MAGA will throw a parade for him.
"drill baby drill" becomes a battle cry, when Gore's doom and gloom runs hard into snow storms in the South.
Not sure how to present the urgency in terms morns might respond to, but not sure even that could work. For Trump, if crops fail in parts of the US, he will simply invade another country, and strip it for resources, and MAGA will throw a parade for him.
22Michelle · 70-79, T
@Northwest Given the predictions of Global Warming the consequences will be far worse in the third world, so those "other countries" are likely to be far worse. The major impact for first world countries like the USA will be immigration on a scale you can't imagine, and that you don't have the resources to stop.
ElwoodBlues · M
I wrote the following up a few years ago, making a business case for CO2 reduction.
Here's another way to look at managing anthropogenic climate change; thru the lenses of probability and cost benefit analysis.
The total stock capitalization of American businesses traded on the stock exchanges is $48 trillion. Someone on Quora calculated the land & resource value of the whole USA at $5000 trillion. So I don't think it's unreasonable to value US seaside land, buildings, & infrastructure at the very round number of $100 trillion.
If you are CEO of a $100 trillion corporation, and some of your people are telling you the whole thing could be flooded in 20 years or 40 years or whatever, what's the prudent thing to do? Answer: ask for cost benefit analyses.
This approach removes the whole "religious war" aspect of the question and focuses on insurance style calculations.
What are the cost estimates for protecting your $100 trillion from floods, and what's a reasonable probability estimate that the doomsayers are correct? The religious war approach pins those probabilities at 0% and 100%, but suppose you allow a 25% probability that the doomsayers are correct, or, alternatively, that they're only 25% correct (25% is just for the sake of argument; I'm not married to the figure).
With that assumption, you now have $25 trillion at risk, so what's the prudent amount to spend to insure that $25 trillion?
A quick google says homeowners insurance costs about $3300/yr for each $1 million of value. Scaling to $25 trillion, that works out to $82 billion per year, or a 12 year investment of about $1 trillion.
So there's nothing outlandish about a ten year one trillion dollar green energy plan, especially given that the plan includes plenty of jobs, infrastructure upgrades, and goods purchased from American businesses.
8000 years of sea levels
Average sea level rise since 1880
https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/indicators/global-sea-level-rise
Increased coastal flooding in last 20 years
https://www.epa.gov/climate-indicators/climate-change-indicators-coastal-flooding
Local sea level rise, mm/year, as measured by GPS

Here's another way to look at managing anthropogenic climate change; thru the lenses of probability and cost benefit analysis.
The total stock capitalization of American businesses traded on the stock exchanges is $48 trillion. Someone on Quora calculated the land & resource value of the whole USA at $5000 trillion. So I don't think it's unreasonable to value US seaside land, buildings, & infrastructure at the very round number of $100 trillion.
If you are CEO of a $100 trillion corporation, and some of your people are telling you the whole thing could be flooded in 20 years or 40 years or whatever, what's the prudent thing to do? Answer: ask for cost benefit analyses.
This approach removes the whole "religious war" aspect of the question and focuses on insurance style calculations.
What are the cost estimates for protecting your $100 trillion from floods, and what's a reasonable probability estimate that the doomsayers are correct? The religious war approach pins those probabilities at 0% and 100%, but suppose you allow a 25% probability that the doomsayers are correct, or, alternatively, that they're only 25% correct (25% is just for the sake of argument; I'm not married to the figure).
With that assumption, you now have $25 trillion at risk, so what's the prudent amount to spend to insure that $25 trillion?
A quick google says homeowners insurance costs about $3300/yr for each $1 million of value. Scaling to $25 trillion, that works out to $82 billion per year, or a 12 year investment of about $1 trillion.
So there's nothing outlandish about a ten year one trillion dollar green energy plan, especially given that the plan includes plenty of jobs, infrastructure upgrades, and goods purchased from American businesses.
8000 years of sea levels

Average sea level rise since 1880

Increased coastal flooding in last 20 years

Local sea level rise, mm/year, as measured by GPS

BiasForAction · M
I certainly believe that anthropogenic emissions of GHGs is warming the planet. But I have no confidence in the the social cost of carbon estimates employed by the USA which is based on climate models including the 2022 updated model used by EPA. I’m an economist. I’d like to believe them, but they are so crude as to be misleading.
jehova · 36-40, M
It’s a concern crops will fail economics mostly developed from agricultural production and food markets, originally! The earth will adjust accordingly new species evolution things will change. Everything takes time the end of the world as we know it. Is that Armageddon apocalypse everyone dies/ a cataclysm ? Or is it simply a massive shift a climate change new species maybe an extinction event or just another epoch. It is the Internet Age now. We started with stone? If anything humanity just needs to slow down and let things adjust. It’ll be fine; just different
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jehova · 36-40, M
@whowasthatmaskedman might be better that way. Humans don’t seem to be helping.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@jehova I agree. In terms of the good of the planet, we are an infestation..😷
22Michelle · 70-79, T
@jehova I think, should it happen, will be like the 2008 crash, but bigger and more importantly it will last decades, possibly (probably?) generations.
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
Where do we start? How about the cost of insurance, if you want something local? Or the cost or droughts, floods and fires on arable and grazing land globally?😷
whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M
@Ynotisay Here, in my country, although it is far from perfect, and money and corporate greed are not without influence, there is an expectation that the government is broadly looking out for the interests of the people, and/or the long term interests of the nation. Currently our conservative parties are in flux, some wanting to hold back the tide of the future and some wanting to change the racial/religious blending we struggled to achieve. That will soon spill into unstable leadership tussles where the lead candidate for the major party is a resurrected corrupt member who had previously pocketed $Millions in crooked water dealings. They have simply run out of better people. He is no Trump. But there again. Trump would never have got elected here in the first place..😷
Ynotisay · M
@whowasthatmaskedman You're right. Trump would NEVER have been elected there. But our departure from both parties having differences but still working for the people, started crumbling when Reagan was elected. And the tribal mentality pushed by the GOP, through an assortment of strategies intended to manipulate through fear and anger, has only gotten worse. I hope countries in the EU are seeing how fragile it all is and don't repeat the same mistakes. You don't want this.
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Ynotisay · M
"We can’t bail out the Earth like we did the banks”.
Good line.
Good line.
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