So, after PLEADING for help to open the Strait of Hormuz, Trump now wants to BLOCKADE it????

@LeopoldBloom


Exactly right. Donnie said "we don't use the Strait". But we do use it indirectly. When countries we do business with pay more for oil the cost is passed on to us.

@LeopoldBloom It likely won't happen when the navy explains to him how stupid an idea that is because it has the same issues escort duty does. It just puts Navy ships in a choke point and means USN ships will get shot up along with tankers and cargo ships. It is another idiotic idea.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow Scary part is if Trump is told that it is a strategic mistake it will make Trump do it because he thinks he knows more then the generals. Cheers!

@Nanoose Unfortunately that is a very real possibility with him. The only thing that might change his mind is someone pointing out what a burning destroyer would do to his poll numbers.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow Yeah poll numbers and trying to look like a tuff guy is what Trump is all about. What I'm wondering is - could the strait be kept open with the warships were they are now? If so why put then in more danger? Cheers!

@Nanoose In a word, no. Heck protecting the ships with close in escorts would not even work. The biggest issue is the strait is 20 KM across. Which means with even "slow" older missiles reaction time is in seconds. The laws of physics dictate that the US cannot intercept incoming missiles in the straight without coming into range themselves. Which is why they are are so far out to begin with. It also does nothing to solve the resupply issue.

Also what Trump is threatening is completely insane. In the same post he said he will order the navy to commit piracy and and attack any ships that negotiate passage with Tehran. That would essentially be an act of war against dozens of countries including multiple US allies at least on paper.

Just an example that would be an act of war against China, India and US allies they want to have on side with a fight with China like Japan and the Philippines. It is idiotic. If he does this it could turn this into a world war.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow While your analysis is SPOT ON, Demented Donnie has no critical thinking skills. He is simply incapable of performing his own or understanding anyone else’s risk/benefit assessment. He tends to simply follow whatever the last thing that was whispered in his ear…especially if it’s violent and (in his deranged mind) prone to make him appear strong to his low IQ voters.

But there’s more: Kegsbreath and others have him psyched up, Ronny Jackson has him strung out on a cocktail of meds, and his advisors are running around clucking like chickens about to have their heads cut off…

Don’t expect him to listen to reason—but even more: whatever the HELL he does, don’t expect it to pass the common sense test! And, of course, he will NEVER EVER accept responsibility for whatever he decides.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow There is also the depletion of our missiles and other supplies. Tactics win battles, logistics win wars.

Iran understands asymmetric warfare; demented Donnie and Kegsbreath don’t.

@PicturesOfABetterTomorrow Correct. The critical variable here in my mind is: Is this just an empty threat to get negotiations moving or is Demented Donnie actually so far out of touch with reality to order this?

Sadly, I fear option B…

@KunsanVeteran Need to add here now that the cadence has slowed a bit, what the US adds to Israel’s willingness to go to war is in a very large part our THAAD defense system (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System). When integrated into wider networks, THAAD adds a crucial layer between Patriot and Aegis, defending cities, bases, and critical infrastructure while forcing adversaries to adjust tactics and expand salvos.

The THAAD units are very expensive and Iran has already taken several of them out of action. I do not know the current numbers. If the US withdraws its support from Israel, the Iron Dome defense would be majorly degraded. Iran’s offensive missiles are relatively cheap compared to what we are expending to defend against them. Iran’s missile inventories are in far better shape than what Demented Donnie and Kegsbreath would have you believe.

Want to end this war quickly with the lowest cost in lives and dollars to the US? Withdraw our forces including defensive units and let Israel fight the war Bibi wanted. And THEN we might see regime change.

In ISRAEL!

@KunsanVeteran Well said. This will also mean leaving the gulf kingdoms to their own devices too which is not a bad thing but it will kill Trump's real estate deals.

@KunsanVeteran Yep. The US only had 12 THAAD systems and apparently 3 have been destroyed. That is not sustainable attrition.

@KunsanVeteran And if Iran a relatively small regional player has already destroyed 3 that also suggests they are ineffective and over priced hype.