Trump may have started the war — but he doesn’t have the power to end it. Iran will determine when the war ends.
This crisis will continue to get worse until normal traffic through the Strait resumes. Even if the conflict ended today and tankers ramped back up to 100% Hormuz flow, it would still take months to return to anything resembling normality.
Ending the war does not mean ending the crisis. All oil production in the Gulf have literally shut down because their storage is full. To bring back that oil to a pre-crisis level takes time. For liquefied natural gas in particular, it takes a very long time.
The longer the strait is effectively closed, the greater the chance the world tips toward a deep recession. It would take more than a month to get back to normal if the war were to stop today. Keeping the current volume off the market for another seven weeks would cause a major global economic contraction so severe that it would create probably the worst recession that anyone has seen since the 1930s. And the tsunami is coming.
Iran's GDP per capita in 2026 is approximately $4,250 after enduring sanctions since 1979. US GDP per capita is $90,000, EU GDP per capita is $50,000, Gulf States GDP per capita is $50,000. The recession is going to level the playing field. Iran has nothing to lose. Who is holding all the cards?
Ending the war does not mean ending the crisis. All oil production in the Gulf have literally shut down because their storage is full. To bring back that oil to a pre-crisis level takes time. For liquefied natural gas in particular, it takes a very long time.
The longer the strait is effectively closed, the greater the chance the world tips toward a deep recession. It would take more than a month to get back to normal if the war were to stop today. Keeping the current volume off the market for another seven weeks would cause a major global economic contraction so severe that it would create probably the worst recession that anyone has seen since the 1930s. And the tsunami is coming.
Iran's GDP per capita in 2026 is approximately $4,250 after enduring sanctions since 1979. US GDP per capita is $90,000, EU GDP per capita is $50,000, Gulf States GDP per capita is $50,000. The recession is going to level the playing field. Iran has nothing to lose. Who is holding all the cards?
