“The times that try men‘s souls” lie ahead in Iran
For Iran what lies ahead will be “The times that try men‘s souls”, as Thomas Paine once said of the American Revolution
Nothing is certain, victory can’t be guaranteed, the Iranian people cannot possibly know what the next days and weeks will offer but I‘m confident that a growing number of Iranian civilians and regime insiders will come to realize that the most opportune moment to overthrow the Iranian regime in the history of its existence is now at hand.
If there’s any overarching objective for this long-overdue joint US-Israeli campaign, then it is to relegate the Islamic Republic of Iran to the ash heap of history, to paraphrase Ronald Reagan‘s sentiment toward communism in the Eastern Bloc, and usher in a new Iranian state free, prosperous and at peace with its neighbors.
If the unfolding war in the Middle East should succeed in this monumental mission, it will go down in history as the most profoundly transformative and productive use of military force by the United States since the Second World War, exceeding the individual utility of every US military intervention in between 1945 and 2026.
This ambitious expeditionary intervention must not be conceived as a mere operation or as a one-off series of air and naval strikes. It has to be a sustained campaign which mustn’t limit itself to dropping bombs. Instead, the campaign must advance beyond a solely military dimension and engage potential defectors among the rank and file and the political, security and religious leadership of Iran. Coordination between the US and Israeli military and intelligence forces on the one hand, and Iranian dissidents, protestors, exiles and regime defectors, on the other, is an indispensable tactical component to achieve the strategic success that this war promises.
Neutrality or defections among members of the Artesh, the IRGC, the police and the political establishment should be systematically incentivized, contingency plans ought to be be developed or activated to facilitate a transition to an interim government before elections can be held, the opposition to the regime must be equipped with communication tools, humanitarian aid and weapons to tilt the balance on the streets and squares of Iranian cities against the repressive organs of the state.
Slower, low-flying US drones, rather than jets and missiles can be deployed to enforce no-go-zones for regime loyalists, thus creating bubbles of popular resistance inside Iran‘s major cities, shielded by US air power.
Compared to the deeper political objectives of this mission, diminishing Iran‘s military assets will be a trifling exercise for the US and Israeli forces, and even though there will be damages to US installations and to US partners in the region, success in this kinetic domain is all but assured.
Whether the regime can be toppled, however, depends on the effective execution of a complex and prolonged campaign that will combine support for the people of Iran with stiff penalties for their oppressors, the leadership of the regime, the IRGC, the Basij paramilitary militia, the Law Enforcement Command special units, the morality and cyber police and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security.
In the end, it’s the Iranian people who have to spearhead their own national revolution on the ground since a ground invasion or occupation by the United States is out of the question. This puts the onus on the very Iranians who have already come out in the millions and died in the tens of thousands to rid themselves of despotism and poverty.
I am both hopeful and convinced that the Iranian people won’t let this historic moment pass them by.
Nothing is certain, victory can’t be guaranteed, the Iranian people cannot possibly know what the next days and weeks will offer but I‘m confident that a growing number of Iranian civilians and regime insiders will come to realize that the most opportune moment to overthrow the Iranian regime in the history of its existence is now at hand.
If there’s any overarching objective for this long-overdue joint US-Israeli campaign, then it is to relegate the Islamic Republic of Iran to the ash heap of history, to paraphrase Ronald Reagan‘s sentiment toward communism in the Eastern Bloc, and usher in a new Iranian state free, prosperous and at peace with its neighbors.
If the unfolding war in the Middle East should succeed in this monumental mission, it will go down in history as the most profoundly transformative and productive use of military force by the United States since the Second World War, exceeding the individual utility of every US military intervention in between 1945 and 2026.
This ambitious expeditionary intervention must not be conceived as a mere operation or as a one-off series of air and naval strikes. It has to be a sustained campaign which mustn’t limit itself to dropping bombs. Instead, the campaign must advance beyond a solely military dimension and engage potential defectors among the rank and file and the political, security and religious leadership of Iran. Coordination between the US and Israeli military and intelligence forces on the one hand, and Iranian dissidents, protestors, exiles and regime defectors, on the other, is an indispensable tactical component to achieve the strategic success that this war promises.
Neutrality or defections among members of the Artesh, the IRGC, the police and the political establishment should be systematically incentivized, contingency plans ought to be be developed or activated to facilitate a transition to an interim government before elections can be held, the opposition to the regime must be equipped with communication tools, humanitarian aid and weapons to tilt the balance on the streets and squares of Iranian cities against the repressive organs of the state.
Slower, low-flying US drones, rather than jets and missiles can be deployed to enforce no-go-zones for regime loyalists, thus creating bubbles of popular resistance inside Iran‘s major cities, shielded by US air power.
Compared to the deeper political objectives of this mission, diminishing Iran‘s military assets will be a trifling exercise for the US and Israeli forces, and even though there will be damages to US installations and to US partners in the region, success in this kinetic domain is all but assured.
Whether the regime can be toppled, however, depends on the effective execution of a complex and prolonged campaign that will combine support for the people of Iran with stiff penalties for their oppressors, the leadership of the regime, the IRGC, the Basij paramilitary militia, the Law Enforcement Command special units, the morality and cyber police and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security.
In the end, it’s the Iranian people who have to spearhead their own national revolution on the ground since a ground invasion or occupation by the United States is out of the question. This puts the onus on the very Iranians who have already come out in the millions and died in the tens of thousands to rid themselves of despotism and poverty.
I am both hopeful and convinced that the Iranian people won’t let this historic moment pass them by.
