Fact-Checking Trump’s Prime-Time Address on the Economy
The president cited misleading statistics to insist, wrongly, that prices were coming down.
President Trump praised what he portrayed as the economic gains under his administration in an address from the White House on Wednesday, even as consumers express concerns about affordability and voice discontent over how he has handled the economy.
“I am bringing those high prices down and bringing them down very fast. Let’s look at the facts,” Mr. Trump said, before ticking off a litany of misleading claims.
Here’s a look at those facts.
What Was Said
“When I took office, inflation was the worst in 48 years, and some would say in the history of our country.”
False. Inflation had already fallen to 3 percent in January, when Mr. Trump took office. Inflation did reach a four-decade high in the summer of 2022, at about 9.1 percent that June, but had declined since then. That number was also not a record; inflation reached higher points in the 1910s, 1970s and 1980s.
What Was Said
“The price of a Thanksgiving turkey was down 33 percent compared to the Biden last year. The price of eggs is down 82 percent since March, and everything else is falling rapidly, and it’s not done yet.”
This is exaggerated. Mr. Trump may have been referring to, and overstating, a report from the American Farm Bureau, which estimated that the cost of a turkey at the grocery store before Thanksgiving had declined by 16 percent this year from last year. But wholesale turkey prices had actually risen this year, according to data from the Agriculture Department and a Purdue University report. This is likely because turkeys are known as loss leaders, or items that retailers may sell at a loss to entice consumers to the store.
On eggs, Mr. Trump is correct that the wholesale price of eggs had fallen from more than $8 a dozen in late February to $1.45 last week, a decline of more than 80 percent. The retail price of eggs declined less sharply, about 44 percent, from March to September, the month with the most recent data available.
Mr. Trump was also wrong that “everything else is falling rapidly.” In fact, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3 percent in September.
What Was Said
“Gasoline is now under $2.50 a gallon into much of the country. In some states, it, by the way, just hit $1.99 a gallon.”
This is exaggerated. Nationally, gas prices averaged $2.90 per gallon in the week ending Dec. 15, according to the Energy Information Administration, a government statistical agency. Estimates from nongovernment trackers, like GasBuddy and AAA, were similar.
It is possible that specific gas stations have prices as low as Mr. Trump heralded. But according to AAA, just four states had average gas prices below $2.50 on Wednesday, with Oklahoma reporting the lowest average price at $2.34 a gallon. There were no states with average gas prices below $2.
What Was Said
“Already, I’ve secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States.”
False. Mr. Trump’s $18 trillion is almost double what his own White House press office has tallied ($9.6 trillion). It also includes broad pledges and previously announced projects. And more than half of that amount comes from informal pledges from foreign countries to invest in the United States that experts warn may be unrealistic.
For example, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates each pledged more than $1 trillion in investments, which is more than their gross domestic products. Previous pledges in Mr. Trump’s first term may also show the amorphous nature of such promises: A 2017 pledge from Saudi Arabia to buy $450 billion of American products did not fully materialize.
What Was Said
“We wrapped 12 different bills up into one beautiful bill that includes no tax on tips, no tax on overtime and no tax on Social Security for our great seniors.”
This is exaggerated. Mr. Trump’s signature domestic policy law, which he signed over the summer, creates deductions for tips and overtime, but those breaks are temporary. And its tax reductions for Social Security benefits are even more limited.
The law allows workers to deduct tips and overtime pay from the 2025 to 2028 tax years. The deductions are capped at $25,000 and $12,500, and decrease for individuals making more than $150,000 a year.
It also creates a deduction of $6,000 for seniors, phasing out for higher incomes and expiring in 2028. That is not quite eliminating all taxation on benefits.
An analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers, an executive branch agency, estimated that under the $6,000 deduction, 88 percent of Social Security beneficiaries over 65 would pay no taxes on their benefits. That is an increase from the 64 percent who previously paid no taxes, according to the same report, but still omits 12 percent, or more than seven million seniors over 65.
Additionally, Social Security beneficiaries under 65 — millions of disabled people, young survivors and early retirees — do not qualify for the deduction.
President Trump praised what he portrayed as the economic gains under his administration in an address from the White House on Wednesday, even as consumers express concerns about affordability and voice discontent over how he has handled the economy.
“I am bringing those high prices down and bringing them down very fast. Let’s look at the facts,” Mr. Trump said, before ticking off a litany of misleading claims.
Here’s a look at those facts.
What Was Said
“When I took office, inflation was the worst in 48 years, and some would say in the history of our country.”
False. Inflation had already fallen to 3 percent in January, when Mr. Trump took office. Inflation did reach a four-decade high in the summer of 2022, at about 9.1 percent that June, but had declined since then. That number was also not a record; inflation reached higher points in the 1910s, 1970s and 1980s.
What Was Said
“The price of a Thanksgiving turkey was down 33 percent compared to the Biden last year. The price of eggs is down 82 percent since March, and everything else is falling rapidly, and it’s not done yet.”
This is exaggerated. Mr. Trump may have been referring to, and overstating, a report from the American Farm Bureau, which estimated that the cost of a turkey at the grocery store before Thanksgiving had declined by 16 percent this year from last year. But wholesale turkey prices had actually risen this year, according to data from the Agriculture Department and a Purdue University report. This is likely because turkeys are known as loss leaders, or items that retailers may sell at a loss to entice consumers to the store.
On eggs, Mr. Trump is correct that the wholesale price of eggs had fallen from more than $8 a dozen in late February to $1.45 last week, a decline of more than 80 percent. The retail price of eggs declined less sharply, about 44 percent, from March to September, the month with the most recent data available.
Mr. Trump was also wrong that “everything else is falling rapidly.” In fact, the Consumer Price Index rose by 3 percent in September.
What Was Said
“Gasoline is now under $2.50 a gallon into much of the country. In some states, it, by the way, just hit $1.99 a gallon.”
This is exaggerated. Nationally, gas prices averaged $2.90 per gallon in the week ending Dec. 15, according to the Energy Information Administration, a government statistical agency. Estimates from nongovernment trackers, like GasBuddy and AAA, were similar.
It is possible that specific gas stations have prices as low as Mr. Trump heralded. But according to AAA, just four states had average gas prices below $2.50 on Wednesday, with Oklahoma reporting the lowest average price at $2.34 a gallon. There were no states with average gas prices below $2.
What Was Said
“Already, I’ve secured a record-breaking $18 trillion of investment into the United States.”
False. Mr. Trump’s $18 trillion is almost double what his own White House press office has tallied ($9.6 trillion). It also includes broad pledges and previously announced projects. And more than half of that amount comes from informal pledges from foreign countries to invest in the United States that experts warn may be unrealistic.
For example, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates each pledged more than $1 trillion in investments, which is more than their gross domestic products. Previous pledges in Mr. Trump’s first term may also show the amorphous nature of such promises: A 2017 pledge from Saudi Arabia to buy $450 billion of American products did not fully materialize.
What Was Said
“We wrapped 12 different bills up into one beautiful bill that includes no tax on tips, no tax on overtime and no tax on Social Security for our great seniors.”
This is exaggerated. Mr. Trump’s signature domestic policy law, which he signed over the summer, creates deductions for tips and overtime, but those breaks are temporary. And its tax reductions for Social Security benefits are even more limited.
The law allows workers to deduct tips and overtime pay from the 2025 to 2028 tax years. The deductions are capped at $25,000 and $12,500, and decrease for individuals making more than $150,000 a year.
It also creates a deduction of $6,000 for seniors, phasing out for higher incomes and expiring in 2028. That is not quite eliminating all taxation on benefits.
An analysis from the Council of Economic Advisers, an executive branch agency, estimated that under the $6,000 deduction, 88 percent of Social Security beneficiaries over 65 would pay no taxes on their benefits. That is an increase from the 64 percent who previously paid no taxes, according to the same report, but still omits 12 percent, or more than seven million seniors over 65.
Additionally, Social Security beneficiaries under 65 — millions of disabled people, young survivors and early retirees — do not qualify for the deduction.
