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Ford writes off $20 billion EV venture. Vin-Fast, with $65 billion of investor money, fails completely.

Photo Above - the quaint Merry Oaks Baptist Church is being blamed for the failure of a $65 billion EV company. But the facts are more complicated, as usual. And taxpayers may have saved a bundle . . .

Ford’s value (market cap) was $54 Billion yesterday. Today it wrote off $20B on its failed EV ventures. Does that mean Ford’s actual market value is now $34 billion, and their stock should also fall 40% - from $13 to $8? I'm not holding my breath, although I do have a longstanding alert at Merrill if Ford returns to it's 52 week low ($8.12, in April).

Evidently Ford is killing off more than one EV. But the model dominating the headlines is the electrified F150 Lightnin' pickup. Turns out there’s NOT actually unlimited demand for battery trucks costing nearly $100,000. Who would have predicted THAT?

“Trump’s policies” gets the blame from Democrats for Ford's decision. But that’s BS. You can’t call an EV car or truck successful if people only buy it with a $7,500 bribe. Only 6,000 Lightnings were sold since the start of the year. Consumer demand was going to be unlimited, right? Owners would be desperate for bragging rights at the Home Depot parking lot on Saturday mornings.

Ford is also halting construction on its Kentucky Battery Plant (thank you again, taxpayer subsidies) as part of the write-off. Evidently those batteries are not only too expensive for vehicles, there’s no also demand for them as home “power wall” systems to store solar energy for use after sundown.

The culprit here is EV technology itself. It's still not affordable. Planet earth is still stuck with liquid sodium ion EV batteries. Which cost a fortune to assemble, weigh a ton, and catch fire when you least want it. The long promised (cheaper, better, lighter) solid state batteries are still nowhere on the horizon, despite dozens of announcements in the past 2 years about amazing breakthroughs.

In case you think I’m picking on Ford, you’re wrong. The biggest EV collapse this week was not Ford, or the continued cratering of Tesla sales. It was "Vin Fast", a company you never heard of. InVietnam. For a couple of months this EV maker was the “most valuable car company on earth”, because investors rushed to pour $65 billion into it. Headquarters in Hai Phong. $65 billion! To be fair to Vin Fast, they WERE talking up a possible North Carolina factory. But ran into opposition when their plan involved bulldozing a 2 room Baptist church built in 1888.

Or maybe the Vin Fast factory killed was because they were losing $3 billion a year on their cars. Politicians in North Carolina promised to shower $300 million in taxpayer money on Vin Fast for it’s proposed factory after seeing the artist's renderings. Taxpayers dodged a bullet this time. Vin Fast’s failure certainly has nothing to do with Trump’s policies either. They failed because of crappy design, lackadaisical assembly, and overambitious pricing. Let’s see if someone uncovers embezzlement and fraud too, okay?

I’m just sayin’ . . .

Ford retreats from EVs, takes $19.5 billion charge as Trump policies take hold

The electric Hummer is almost outselling the F-150 Lightning | TechCrunch

Is VinFast Going Out Of Business? - CarsDirect

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whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

Ford just had a reality check they havent seen since the Edsel..There is a limit to which even Americans will sink in paying too much for sh*t product. And the infrastructure for proper roll out of EVs certainly isnt going to happen under a Trump administration, even if the vehicle wasnt out of date tech and overpriced. And all at a time when the economy is visibly tanking and credit for a vehicle is harder to find..
Ford really ran into a perfect storm and should have seen it coming from miles away..😷

swirlie · 31-35

@whowasthatmaskedman
I see the Ford Motor Company as a little dog sitting up on it's hind legs with it's front paws in the air, dutifully awaiting it's next challenge from Donald Trump, which means how fast can the auto industry pivot every time Trump changes his mind about petrol versus EV, considering Trump himself doesn't even own a car nor does he have a drivers license?

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@swirlie Maybe. Personally I see the US motor industry as a dinosaur.Like those tobacco farmers paid not to grow tobacco or all the other subsidy pigs at the trough. If Toyota, Honda and BMW can make cars in America, there is no reason Ford, GM and Chrysler cant except a lack of ideas and talent at the top.. In the case of Ford, it is particularly pronounced.😷

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whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@swirlie Its the same here and on the EV side, BYD are cutting chunks out of Tesla sales. There are half a dozen brands from China advertising. I doubt all will survive. But with the home battery rebates, its free fuel for your car. Another boat the US could have been on, but wasnt..😷

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@whowasthatmaskedman the irony - the edsel was actually affordable.

swirlie · 31-35

@whowasthatmaskedman
How do we tell the USA that the wheel has already been invented without pissing them off for not being the first ones to come up with the concept?

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@SusanInFlorida I confess I am unsure why it was a flop. (although it looked awful to me) But I know it was a sales loser and named after one of the Ford children. They never tried to see any here. The steering wheel was on the wrong side for a start..😷

swirlie · 31-35

@whowasthatmaskedman
..have you got time for a couple of pressing questions?

jackjjackson · M

Heads should be rolling at Ford. Are there any EV’s in Russia? They’d be similar to Americans when it comes to long car trips as opposed to the shorter ones taken in Europe etc. I haven’t heard of a successful UK EV maker have you? @whowasthatmaskedman

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@jackjjackson In truth, most of the British car makers arent British any more. The old names have been sold to new owner.. Volvo is Chinese. So is MG. I believe Jaguar is Indian. Hell, Rolls Royce is BMW..But the category killer would seem to be BYD. Here is a breakdown of all the sales by maker, separating EVs from PHEV
https://ev-volumes.com/news/ev/which-ev-manufacturers-performed-the-best-in-2024-so-far/

jackjjackson · M

That sure hasn’t made repairs for those things any more reasonably priced. @whowasthatmaskedman

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@jackjjackson I agree. In fact the new brand owners usually discontinue all replacement parts for the previous owns models. Try getting spares for an older series Volvo. The Chinese in particular are accelerating the the transition from the car as a long term investment to a planned obselecense appliance. Like your fridge or washing machine. Its hardly mechanical any more. Its electronic..Now before you say anything. I am not taking a side here. Just reporting the facts..Equally, the service and repair industries for cars will be forced to evolve of go under as well.😷

jackjjackson · M

I remember getting a an analog Maytag washer and dryer with the house we bought which were six years old then. We kept them with minimal repairs for fifteen or so additional years with repair people all along the way telling us not to get rid of them. We’ve been through three of each in the twenty years since. I@whowasthatmaskedman

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@jackjjackson A perfect example of old school V new fangled..Car used to be machines. And things you were supposed to repair. Now they just arent...😷

jackjjackson · M

Not just repair but even sometimes getting the parts from junkyards. @whowasthatmaskedman

swirlie · 31-35

@jackjjackson
I've been through that same appliance fiasco a few times. When I bought my condo new in 2016, I didn't take the builder's appliance package and received a modest credit to the purchase price instead.

Then I went out and bought all high-end kitchen and laundry appliances made in Europe. In the past 9 years, I've fixed the dishwasher twice at $800 a pop, then finally replaced the dishwasher twice and ended up with a Bosch. So far, so good.

I've replaced the wall oven exhaust fan once for $600, the stove hood fan once for $1100, the built-in microwave once for $1500, the LG fridge door closer once for $300, the clothes dryer once and the clothes washer once. I'm getting an average of 4 to 5 years out of new appliances but they look like new when they end up at the recycle center.

whowasthatmaskedman · 70-79, M

@swirlie Now almost everything is made in China.. Or the components inside it are. The real difference between a top end brand and a Big Box special in the level of service when it goes wrong. My own Bosch Fridge starting making funny noises during Covid while we were locked down. The service man arranged to come out (this was before vaccines) and fix it as long as we were masked up and stayed away from him. He was also masked and face shielded. But lock down or not, he still showed up, fixed it first time No charge. Everything screws up. Its what happens next thats important..😷

jackjjackson · M

Still under warranty I suspect which for one of the Bosch ovens here that just showed a an error code and is out of warranty is one year. @whowasthatmaskedman

jackjjackson · M

Ugh. I hear you ma’am. @swirlie

SusanInFlorida · 31-35, F

@whowasthatmaskedman evidently that limit hasn't been reached yet on ICE F150's with giant V8 engines, and 20 inch suspension lifts

jackjjackson · M

I suspect more men than women buy trucks and less men than women buy EV’s. @SusanInFlorida

swirlie · 31-35

@jackjjackson
Two years ago I looked at some stats on pickup trucks sold in North America and for the record, they showed that 48% of all pickup truck sales went to women and the remainder to men. I've not heard anything so far about EV gender-related purchases.

swirlie · 31-35

@whowasthatmaskedman

Now almost everything is made in China.. Or the components inside it are. The real difference between a top end brand and a Big Box special in the level of service when it goes wrong.

What I learned the hard way from my dishwasher which was made in Europe, was that it cost more in labor to dig to the root of the problem while the unit is sitting up on top of a shop work bench, then it costs to actually replace the part itself once they reach it within the center of its own dishwasher universe.

That 'repair' experience cost me $800 and a new dishwasher itself only cost about $1500.

That repair lasted exactly 3 months before the same thing happened again, at which point I invested my repair money into a new unit, but this time I bought a Bosch dishwasher and I've never looked back.

One thing the repairman told me as he tried to console me while I sat curled in the fetal position on my kitchen floor as he worked around me, was that the same repair to a Bosch dishwasher only costs $60 in parts plus about the same in labor.

The reason for this is that Bosch is designed to have the entire assembly removed in one piece very quickly and replaced as one component as well. It's cheaper at all levels to replace one assembly unit than to remove each component separately on a work bench, which of course makes sense.

He was saying that anytime an appliance (like a microwave) is assembled in 1000 different individual pieces, it's done that way to serve the labor market at the assembly plant, which means making an appliance is a make-work project for the manufacturer, but does not serve the consumer at all.

jackjjackson · M

I hope the same applies to my Bosch wall oven when the repair person comes. @swirlie

swirlie · 31-35

@jackjjackson
At the end of the day, its probably cheaper to eat in restaurants.